2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational – Round 4 Betting and Showdown Picks

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After a late surge up the leaderboard thanks to birdies on his final three holes, Scottie Scheffler is once again front and center on a Sunday leaderboard. Credit 36-hole leader, Kurt Kitayama for digging deep to overcome some early-round adversity to regain the lead by one stroke after Saturday’s round, but surrounded by the elite of the elite, he will most likely be an afterthought on Sunday. After carding a 66 and playing one of the best rounds of his life, Viktor Hovland joins Scheffler at 8-under. Below that top-3, players within four shots of Kitayama’s lead include Tyrrell Hatton, Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas and Jordan Spieth.

Scheffler checks in as the favorite at +220 to win. He is followed by Hovland at +400 and Kitayama at +650. Two of the best past performers at Bay Hill, McIlroy and Hatton are both at +750. The most intriguing value play is definitely Justin Thomas who is at+2200. After gaining over three strokes ball-striking on Saturday, he lost two strokes putting. If he figures out the greens, we could see a repeat of his come-behind victory at Southern Hills. But Scheffler remains the one to beat. He successfully defended his win in Phoenix, and if his putter stays hot, he will be tough to overtake.

Weather Forecast – Orlando Florida

Round 4 Betting Matchups Model

*Strokes Gained Rating (SG RTG) is the key metric that combines all the weighted categories in the model. Some players (or matchups) may not be listed due to not having enough sample size data.