My approach to golf betting and daily fantasy is deeply rooted in statistical modeling. It’s not the only way to go about handicapping a golf tournament, but I think it’s the best way. It helps me eliminate biases and identify golfers purely based on whether they are in good form and if their game syncs up with the course they are about to play.
In this article, I will put together a weighted statistical model specific to the course and tournament. The statistics are chosen and weighted based on historical data from previous tournaments. In addition to course-specific data, I will also look at recent form and any other potentially relevant angle. The model accounts for the last 50 measured rounds, with the more recent rounds receiving increasingly more weight.
Key Stats Considered
The statistical model will always include the main four strokes gained statistics of off-the-tee, approach, around the green, and putting. It’s safe to assume, even if those stats aren’t elaborated on in this section that they are baked into each player’s ranking when all is said and done. The model will also include secondary stats that are specific to success on the current week’s course. Because these secondary stats change week-to-week, they will make up the bulk of those delved into in this article. This will include stats such as driving distance, driving accuracy, good drives, proximity from a certain yardage, eagle rate, birdie rate, putting on a particular grass type, and specific course types like “short par 70s” or “difficult courses over 7400 yards”.
SG: Approach
Approach is basically three times as important as off the tee and around the green at Sawgrass. Approach should be the backbone of any statistical research because over and over again it proves to be the most important.
| 1. Max Homa |
| 2. Tony Finau |
| 3. Tom Hoge |
| 4. Xander Schauffele |
| 5. Jon Rahm |
| 6. Rickie Fowler |
| 7. Scottie Scheffler |
| 8. Rory McIlroy |
| 9. Wyndham Clark |
| 10. Collin Morikawa |
Opportunities Gained
Opportunities gained measures the number of times a golfer hits a green in regulation inside of 15 feet or hits a green in under regulation. Sawgrass greens in regulation have a wide dispersion in terms of proximity. They average proximity to the hole is much longer than tour average. By incorporating Opps gained, we can give a boost to players who are not only hitting greens, but hitting it close.
| 1. Cam Young |
| 2. Rory McIlroy |
| 3. Tony Finau |
| 4. Corey Conners |
| 5. Scottie Scheffler |
| 6. Jon Rahm |
| 7. Kurt Kitayama |
| 8. Gary Woodland |
| 9. Davis Riley |
| 10. Wyndham Clark |
Par 5 Scoring
With four Par 5s on the course, being able to score on these holes has proved crucial at Sawgrass historically.
| 1. Jon Rahm |
| 2. Rory McIlroy |
| 3. Patrick Cantlay |
| 4. Collin Morikawa |
| 5. Justin Thomas |
| 6. Wyndham Clark |
| 7. Sungjae Im |
| 8. Patton Kizzire |
| 9. Will Zalatoris |
| 10. Justin Rose |
Wedge Guys
I created a combined stat category of proximity gained from 75-150 yards. Guys are going to be pulling their 60 degree through their pitching wedge a lot this week. This range accounts for about 40% of the shots at Sawgrass historically.
| 1. Russell Knox |
| 2. Max Homa |
| 3. Joseph Bramlett |
| 4. Collin Morikawa |
| 5. Scottie Scheffler |
| 6. Chris Kirk |
| 7. Davis Riley |
| 8. Russell Henley |
| 9. Viktor Hovland |
| 10. Kurt Kitayama |
200+ Proximity
Given the four Par 5s and a few longer Par 4s, hitting 200+ approach shots will be the most common yardage bucket this week. This range accounts for 22% of approach shots at Sawgrass historically.
| 1. Jon Rahm |
| 2. Gary Woodland |
| 3. Adam Svensson |
| 4. Tom Hoge |
| 5. Matt NeSmith |
| 6. Patrick Cantlay |
| 7. Kurt Kitayama |
| 8. Tom Kim |
| 9. Collin Morikawa |
| 10. Davis Thompson |
Good Drives Gained
Fairway accuracy and strokes gained off the tee in general don’t pop as critically important here in this tournament. There is a lot of water and trouble lurking. However, players can play this course conservative off the tee, which explains why hitting the fairway has been a bit more common and not a key factor. That said, if you do get erratic you can make a big number. Good drives are in the model this week, but with appropriate weight.
| 1. Justin Suh |
| 2. Collin Morikawa |
| 3. Nate Lashley |
| 4. Russell Henley |
| 5. Dylan Wu |
| 6. Aaron Rai |
| 7. Jason Day |
| 8. Hayden Buckley |
| 9. Justin Rose |
| 10. Adam Long |
Three Putt Avoidance
In addition to strokes gained on lightning fast Bermuda greens, three putt avoidance has been a really big factor in performing well at Sawgrass. Given that the approach shot proximity is a bit broader than tour average, nestling your first putt close enough for a makeable par instead of blowing it 6 feet by is a huge advantage.
| 1. Sam Ryder |
| 2. Jason Day |
| 3. Peter Malnati |
| 4. Maverick McNealy |
| 5. Chris Kirk |
| 6. Aaron Baddeley |
| 7. Nicolas Echavaria |
| 8. Robby Shelton |
| 9. Justin Suh |
| 10. Nick Watney |
Lightning Fast Bermuda Putting
One of the biggest defenses of this course is the lightning fast Bermuda greens. Though we are going to find the best ball strikers this week to find the winner of this tournament, being a good Bermuda putter will be a nice tie-breaker or icing on the cake for our bets and DraftKings picks.
| 1. Ben Taylor |
| 2. Andrew Putnam |
| 3. Beau Hossler |
| 4. Maverick McNealy |
| 5. Taylor Montgomery |
| 6. Tyrrell Hatton |
| 7. Sam Burns |
| 8. Aaron Wise |
| 9. Thomas Detry |
| 10. Chesson Hadley |
Pete Dye Specialists
Pete Dye designed golf courses are unique when compared to other courses. Some of the characteristics Dye is known for include: long fairway bunkers which require precise tee shots, dogleg Par 5s, and visually intimidating shots. There are a few individuals like Si Woo Kim who are considered Pete Dye specialists after routinely performing well at his courses. Here are the top stroke gainers at Dye courses
| 1. Tiger Woods |
| 2. Patrick Cantlay |
| 3. Brian Harman |
| 4. Keegan Bradley |
| 5. Jon Rahm |
| 6. Shane Lowry |
| 7. Tommy Fleetwood |
| 8. Sungjae Im |
| 9. Adam Scott |
| 10. Corey Conners |
Current Form
The golfers playing the best at the moment. Though golf is filled with variance and the previous weeks winner is more likely to miss the cut than win again, being in the groove with your swing is a real thing in golf.
| 1. Scottie Scheffler |
| 2. Jon Rahm |
| 3. Jason Day |
| 4. Chris Kirk |
| 5. Patrick Cantlay |
| 6. Max Homa |
| 7. Keegan Bradley |
| 8. Justin Thomas |
| 9. Collin Morikawa |
| 10. Tyrrell Hatton |
Course Form
The players who’ve gained the most strokes at Sawgrass over the years.
| 1. Justin Thomas |
| 2. Adam Scott |
| 3. Si Woo Kim |
| 4. Tiger Woods |
| 5. Tommy Fleetwood |
| 6. Keegan Bradley |
| 7. Hideki Matsuyama |
| 8. Jason Day |
| 9. Francesco Molinari |
| 10. Justin Rose |
Peaking and Fading
One of the flaws that I often come across in modeling is focusing on a fixed range of time or rounds and taking a wider view to determining if a player is peaking or fading leading up to an event. For instance, a player’s high rating in a model that only focuses on the last 50 rounds could be a result of playing well four months ago. In this section, I will lay out the players who have improved or faded statistically over the course of their last 50 rounds.
| Peaking |
| 1. Nate Lashley |
| 2. Chris Kirk |
| 3. Keegan Bradley |
| 4. Justin Suh |
| 5. Jordan Spieth |
| Fading |
| 1. Cam Davis |
| 2. Alex Smalley |
| 3. Matt Wallace |
| 4. Mark Hubbard |
| 5. Russell Knox |
Stat Model Final Rankings
| 1. Jon Rahm- Rahm checks every box possible. He’s fifth on Dye courses, 2nd in overall form, 20th in lightning fast Bermuda putting, 1st from 200+ yards and 1st in Par 5 scoring, 5th in approach and 6th in opportunities gained. |
| 2. Rory McIlroy – Rates out 8th in approach and 2nd in opportunities gained, he’s top 25 in two of three wedge ranges, and 2nd in Par 5 scoring. He is also rates out top 15 in both Sawgrass and Pete Dye history. |
| 3. Tyrrell Hatton – An unexpected appearance at number three for Hatton is due to excellent recent course fit, along with overall form of 10th and 6th in the putting specifications. If he could keep from spazzing out on Sunday, he checks enough boxes to take this one down. |
| 4. Patrick Cantlay – Cantlay is one of the top Pete Dye Course players on tour, the only issue is that Sawgrass hasn’t really been one of the Dye courses he dominates. None the less he rates out well from 100-125, 200+, and Par 5s. The putter is what will determine if he finishes 20th or 1st. |
| 5. Scottie Scheffler – Scheffler really pops this week in course fit. He rates out 1st overall from 24 rounds and 12 rounds with a 7th in approach, 5th in opportunities gained, 5th in total wedge play, and 14th in both three-putt avoidance, and good drives gained. |
| 6. Xander Schauffele – Xander is steady across the board. He rates out 4th in approach and inside the top 20 in opportunities gained, wedge range, 200+ proximity. No matter the time frame, he’s top ten in course fit. |
| 7. Will Zalatoris – Zalatoris has good Dye history (13th) and Sawgrass history (16th). He’s also in good form at 15th. The crux of the decision on Willy Z is that his course fit is getting progressively worse recently. |
| 8. Tony Finau – A tale of two stories makes Finau a tough decision this week. He rates out really well when looking at course specific stats. He’s 2nd in approach and 3rd in opportunities gained, 6th from 125-150, and 16th in Par 5 scoring and good drives. His results just haven’t measured up at Sawgrass. He has zero top 20s and a plethora of missed cuts. |
| 9. Keegan Bradley – I was hoping Keegan’s betting number was 75 points or better because I think he sets up as a dark horse winner here at the PLAYERS, but he’s 50 or shorter everywhere currently. He’s the anti-Finau right now. His course fit isn’t immaculate, but he’s 7th in overall form, 6th on Sawgrass, 4th on Dye courses, and 31st in fast Bermuda putting. |
| 10. Viktor Hovland – 11th in opportunities gained, 9th from the wedge range, 17th in Par 5 scoring, and top 25 in Dye history and Sawgrass history. |
| 11. Shane Lowry |
| 12. Tom Hoge |
| 13. Collin Morikawa |
| 14. Max Homa |
| 15. Chris Kirk |
| 16. Tommy Fleetwood |
| 17. Justin Thomas– 1st in Sawgrass form, 15th in Pete Dye form, 8th in overall form. JT is one of the first guys I think of when wedge play is brought up as well. The potential for him to club down in this tournament may mitigate the driver which is the club he’s been struggling with a bit lately. |
| 18. Davis Riley– Riley is a first timer at Sawgrass, but rates out 2nd in course fit in the short term and had a dynamite final round in the API. He rates out top 15 in opportunities gained, the wedge range, and 200+ approaches. |
| 19. Sungjae Im |
| 20. Jhonnatan Vegas |
| 21. Corey Conners |
| 22. Kurt Kitayama |
| 23. Wyndham Clark– Clark rates out really well in course fit with a 9th in approach, 10th in opportunities gained, 11th in the wedge range, 11th in 200+ proximity, and 6th in Par 5 scoring. |
| 24. Justin Rose |
| 25. Cam Young |
| 26. Tom Kim |
| 27. Jason Day– 3rd in overall form, 8th in course form, 20th on Dye courses. |
| 28. Eric Cole |
| 29. Justin Suh |
| 30. Jordan Spieth |
| 31. Webb Simpson |
| 32. Gary Woodland– Woodland is always someone the comes to mind when a player can take the driver out of their hand on a course. He rates out 2nd in 200+ proximity, 8th in opportunities gained, and 13th in good drives. |
| 33. Adam Scott– Rates out 2nd in Sawgrass form and 9th on Dye courses. Amazingly, he’s also done a flat stick 180 and rates out 17th in the specific putting inputs. He hasn’t been spectacular lately, but he’s an all-time ball striker that can absolutely find some magic with his irons in short spurts |
| 34. Alex Smalley |
| 35. Ben Griffin |
| 36. Robby Shelton |
| 37. Matt Wallace |
| 38. Adam Hadwin |
| 39. Dylan Wu |
| 40. Ryan Palmer |
| 41. Si Woo Kim– The quintessential Pete Dye guy. Rates out 3rd in Sawgrass form and 28th on all Dye courses. Is one of the fading players and rates out extremely poor in course fit short term. He’s one player who has such good course history here that I would ignore the current course fit. |
| 42. Russell Henley |
| 43. Thomas Detry |
| 44. Rickie Fowler |
| 45. Ben Martin |
| 46. Sam Ryder |
| 47. Dylan Frittelli |
| 48. Brendon Todd |
| 49. Lanto Griffin |
| 50. Nate Lashley- Ranks 4th in short term course fit and 23rd in overall form. |
