Strategy
While this week’s Honda Classic is a massive step down in the quality of the field compared to the last couple of weeks, there is still plenty of opportunity to make a profit on DraftKings. With PGA National being a unique course, this week sets up very differently than typical weeks. Most of the time when the field is weak, it is an easy-scoring course. This could not be further from the case this week as PGA National has been the toughest non-major course on Tour for many years.
f684b2f3d4218ee06dad551b3bb2074bTo start, this is definitely not the week to go heavily owned on any one player no matter how much of a lock you think that player is to have a good week. Every single champion here since 2010 has missed the cut within three years of their win. That does not mean you shouldn’t take stands on certain players, but all it takes is one or two water balls on Thursday or Friday to sink the chances of even the upper-tier players on the slate.
I also think the strategy needs to change each week depending on where the strength of the player pool is located. For this week there are two pockets of strength with numerous low-owned leverage plays that I will be looking to take advantage of. The first is from Aaron Wise at $9.2K down to Cam Davis at $8.1K. There is a good mix of relatively consistent and talented players (Aaron Wise, Taylor Pendrith, Thomas Detry, Adam Svensson) along with some leverage plays who are either unknown or struggling with their recent form (Adrian Meronk and Cam Davis). The other pocket I will be heavy on is from $7.6K down to $7.3K. Ben An, Hayden Buckley, Nick Hardy, Will Gordon, Davis Riley, S.H. Kim, Webb Simpson and Erik van Rooyen should all be priced higher in my opinion and each has a solid amount of upside to finish in the top 10 or better this week.
Finally, as you can probably gather, we should expect much lower point totals this week with our DraftKings lineups. Birdie streaks and bogey-free rounds will be few and far between. Because of this, placement points will have added emphasis. With that in mind, along with a lack of overall “stars”, and the fact the $6,000 range is mostly a pile of hot trash, my strategy this week will be a more balanced approach. Players who have shown past success on other difficult scoring courses with similar water danger will be high on my radar.
Also, if you play Showdown, make sure to pay attention to the weather. The wind forecast can change here very quickly, making either the AM or PM wave very advantageous to play if an edge can be found.
2023 Honda Classic Narratives and Important Metrics
Unique Model Weights
- SG: Weak Field/Difficult Courses
- SG: High Water Danger/Double Bogey Courses
- SG: Florida
The Honda Classic and PGA National pick up right where Riviera Country Club left off last week with another stern test of golf. One huge difference is that we go from a course with not a single water hazard hole to one with water danger on 15 holes. At Riviera, you could get away with a bit of wildness off the tee or on approach. At PGA National, there will be no such luxury.
With “water mines” everywhere on the course, all it takes is a couple of poor shots to completely derail a round. Consistent ball-strikers with mid-to-long irons who are not erratic off the tee are paramount in building any lineup or betting card this week. Furthermore, I will be focusing on players who have a strong record of avoiding, not just bogeys, but double bogeys as well.
My “Safety” model is of the utmost importance this week as it measures past performance in many of the areas in which PGA National is at its toughest. For example, how have players in the field performed on other courses that have a high number of both water danger holes and double bogeys?
I also analyzed who, historically, tends to elevate their game in a tournament that lacks star power but yet is played on a difficult course. This week’s Honda Classic is a weak-field event played on the toughest non-major course on Tour.
With trouble lurking everywhere, players need to be in control of their swing heading into this event. I will also definitely target players who are in good form with good ball-striking results over the past few weeks. In my model, I also targeted par 4 scoring and Strokes Gained on Florida courses since 2019. With so many players missing greens, scrambling and putting on these grainy Bermuda surfaces will also be vitally important.
Weather Forecast – Palm Beach Gardens, Florida
Most Important Stats For Success at the Honda Classic
*In order of importance
- SG: APP
- Bogey/Double Bogey Avoidance
- Scrambling
- SG: Tough Scoring Courses
- Par 4 Scoring
- Course History PGA National/comp courses
- Proximity 125-200 yds
- SG: Putting (Bermuda)
- SG: OTT
- 3-putt Avoidance
Honda Classic – DraftKings Picks
Each week along with presenting my top choices for each of the categories below, I will include each of the pertinent stats for the specific event that comes directly from my model. Except for the “Core Plays,” which most weeks will typically be somewhat on the chalky side, I will include at least one player I am positive on who is forecast to be lower-owned and who will present a good pivot from some of the higher-owned options. In essence, the players you see below make up the majority of my player pool for this event.
Last week, I took a chance on two lower-owned established players in Hideki Matsuyama and Matt Fitzpatrick. Unfortunately, that didn’t work out so well as both missed the cut on the number. The volatility of this week will push me to have multiple cores mixed into the different contests I am entering. But my favorite core is listed below. Again, if anyone ever has questions about my player pool, how I build lineups, or anything strategy-related, you know where to find me in the Discord.
Core Plays
Upper-Tier Plays
Mid-Range Plays
Value Plays
Photo by Doug Zimmerman/ISI Photos/Getty Images