Strategy
As is typically the case in these loaded, strong-field events, it is very hard to determine which players to fade in the upper-tier. One way I like to get around that a little bit in multi-entry is to take some firmer stands down in the $7K range and then mix and match up top. The range from $7.9K to $7.3K is absolutely loaded this week.
f684b2f3d4218ee06dad551b3bb2074bIn strong-field events, ownership is usually spread out on top and that appears to be the case again this week with only a couple players above 20% but nobody above 25%. The players I am “partially” fading this week from the upper tier include Rory McIlroy, Max Homa, Viktor Hovland and Matt Fitzpatrick. (Hit me up in the Discord if you want to know more about my thoughts or reasoning for any players.)
I’m filling my DraftKings player pool with strong drivers off the tee who also have positive approach metrics. Golfers with poor short games will be included due to those metrics not being as relevant to success. Players with proven course history here at TPC Scottsdale will also have priority in my lineup. Finally, with numerous values in the lower ranges, all of my lineups will have at least two players in the $9,500 and above tier. I am a firm believer in chasing high-end win equity this week.
2023 WM Phoenix Open Narratives and Important Metrics
Unique Model Weights
*Full model posted in Discord as well as my Betting article
- SG: Strong Fields
- SG: Driver Heavy
- Going for the Green – Aggression Rate
According to DataGolf, course history at TPC Scottsdale is the third most predictive of any course on Tour, behind only Augusta National and Waialae CC. That means players who have seen success here in the past are more likely to repeat than most other courses. As mentioned above, I am weighing past TPC Scottsdale history as well as performance on other similar courses (TPC Summerlin, Summit Club, PGA West, etc) more heavily than normal.
This week is all about ball-striking and it all starts from off the tee. I am heavily weighing strong players off the tee in Total Driving. Total Driving is an “old-school” golf stat that equally balances driving distance and fairway accuracy. For a course like TPC Scottsdale, it is very useful because an equal combination of both will be paramount to setting up easier and higher-lofted approach shots into these rock-hard greens. I have also placed emphasis on prolific par-5 scorers. While there are only three par-5s, they account for over 44% of the scoring on this course.
Getting a decrease in my model this week are the short-game metrics. As previously mentioned, around the green play has proven to not have much relevance for success here. And with numerous winners at this event being downright bad putters, we could definitely see an elite ball-striker that is a below-average putter such as Collin Morikawa or Keegan Bradley have success here.
Related to the closing stretch of holes, it’s a risk-reward week at the WM Phoenix Open with three must-score par 5s and the driveable par 4 17th. Players who are aggressive and skilled at Going For The Green will have a huge edge. Included in my model for the week is a number of stats that relate to Par 5 Scoring and “GFG” metrics including “Aggression” rate which measures how often players go for the green off the tee or on the 2nd shot on a par 5.
Weather Forecast – Scottsdale, Arizona
Most Important Stats For Success at the WM Phoenix Open
*In order of importance
- SG: APP
- Total Driving
- Birdie or Better %
- Scoring Opportunities <15 ft
- Course History
- Bogey Avoidance
- Par-5 Scoring
- SG: OTT
- Good Drive %
- Scrambling
WM Phoenix Open – DraftKings Picks
Each week along with presenting my top choices for each of the categories below, I will include each of the pertinent stats for the specific event that comes directly from my model. Except for the “Core Plays,” which most weeks will typically be somewhat on the chalky side, I will include at least one player I am positive on who is forecast to be lower-owned and who will present a good pivot from some of the higher-owned options. In essence, the players you see below make up the majority of my player pool for this event.
Core Plays
Upper Tier Plays
Mid-Range Plays
Value Plays
Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images