2023 WM Phoenix Open – Betting Preview

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Set in the Sonoran Desert and surrounded by the majestic McDowell Mountains, the PGA Tour heads to TPC Scottsdale for this week’s Waste Management Phoenix Open. Completed in 1986 and designed by Tom Weiskopf and Jay Morrish, TPC Scottsdale has been the host of this event for the last 35 years.

The “People’s Open” is one of the most popular sporting events in the world, hosting around 750,000 spectators annually. Known for its raucous crowds, especially at the par-3 16th hole, this event has a unique atmosphere and is a tournament that often produces a dramatic finale. 14 of the past 16 years had a scoring margin of one stroke, including seven playoffs. This year, the stakes are even higher as this tournament was named as one of four “designated” events and has a star-studded field competing for a purse of $20 million with $3.6 million going to the winner.

While there are plenty of scoring chances at TPC Scottsdale, the winning score has only reached 20-under par once in the last 15 years. Over the past five years, scoring has averaged 0.82 strokes under par. Strong drivers of the ball have had great success here, including last year’s winner, Scottie Scheffler, and others such as Brooks Koepka, Hideki Matsuyama, Jon Rahm, and Justin Thomas.

Ball-striking and distance are also highly important, especially in the thinner air where all three of the par-5s are reachable and can be aggressively attacked to set up eagle and birdie chances that are vital to success. Past course history also matters this week as TPC Scottsdale is the fourth most predictive course based on past performance.

The Field

After three consecutive weeks of course rotations and pro-am set-ups, we are back to normal tournament golf. It’s a smaller 136-player field with a cut after 36 holes and the top 65 and ties advance to the weekend.

This will be the best field by far in WM Phoenix Open history. Every eligible player in the top 25 of the world rankings will be in attendance with the exception of Will Zalatoris. Overall, 33 of the top 40 and 48 of the top 70 will be teeing it up this week led by the top-three players in the world, Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler, and Jon Rahm. McIlroy is making his PGA debut this year and hasn’t played on Tour since winning the CJ Cup in October. He has, however, been playing in DP World Tour events, and since his CJ Cup win has finished 2nd-4th-4th-4th-1st – winning the Hero Dubai Desert Classic on January 28.

2023 WM Phoenix Open Betting Narratives and Strategies

Unique Model Weights

  • SG: Strong Fields
  • SG: Driver Heavy
  • Going for the Green – Aggression Rate

From an outright betting perspective, this is not a week to target longshots. Ever since 2014, we have seen the cream rise to the top here year after year. According to the winning trends for this week, signs point to a “top-notch” player winning this event. This is definitely factored into my betting card for the week. There are still some really good values in the placement market that I like based on the results of my model (below).

According to DataGolf, course history at TPC Scottsdale is the third most predictive of any course on Tour, behind only Augusta National and Waialae CC. That means players who have seen success here in the past are more likely to repeat than most other courses. I am weighing past course performance more heavily than normal.

This week is all about ball-striking and it all starts from off the tee. I am heavily weighing strong players off the tee in Total Driving. Total Driving is an “old-school” golf stat that equally balances driving distance and fairway accuracy. For a course like TPC Scottsdale, it is very useful because an equal combination of both will be paramount to setting up easier and higher-lofted approach shots into these rock-hard greens. I have also placed emphasis on prolific par-5 scorers. While there are only three par-5s, they account for over 44% of the scoring on this course.

Getting a decrease in my model this week are the short-game metrics. As previously mentioned, around the green play has proven to not have much relevance for success here. And with numerous winners at this event being downright bad putters, we could definitely see another below-average putter such as Luke List or Tom Hoge have success.

Related to the closing stretch of holes, it’s a risk-reward week at the WM Phoenix Open with three must-score par 5s and the driveable par 4 17th. Players who are aggressive and skilled at Going For The Green will have a huge edge. Included in my model for the week is a number of stats that relate to Par 5 Scoring and “GFG” metrics including “Aggression” rate which measures how often players go for the green off the tee or on the 2nd shot on a par 5.

Also, keep in mind that with players ejecting from the leaderboard on the closing stretch over the weekend, it’s a great week to save some units for live action. As mentioned, the par 4 17th is the most stressful and exciting hole on the course. Tournaments are won and lost here (just ask Sahith Theegala). It is because of holes like the 17th that since 2009, only two 54-hole leaders have managed to close out and win the tournament on Sunday.

Weather Forecast – Scottsdale, Arizona

Most Important Stats For Success at the WM Phoenix Open

*In order of importance

  • SG: APP
  • Total Driving
  • Birdie or Better %
  • Scoring Opportunities <15 ft
  • Course History
  • Bogey Avoidance
  • Par-5 Scoring
  • SG: OTT
  • Good Drive %
  • Scrambling

The WM Phoenix Open Final Model

In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of the individual splits will be posted on my Twitter feed, with the final model exclusively published here for subscribers.

Outright Betting Selections

*Lines accurate at the time of publication.

Patrick Cantlay +2200

Cantlay is always “business as usual” and I love it. He’s not doing on-course interviews and doesn’t care about the Netflix doc. And in my opinion, his odds this week are downright disrespectful. He is the best player in the field by far in high-scoring type events out West. His game doesn’t have a single weakness. In his only appearance last year in Phoenix he finished second. He ranks second in the “Core 4” and in my “Aggression” model this week. And at almost one-third of the price of Rahm and McIlroy, sign me up.

(1.09u) BetRivers

Collin Morikawa +2500 (currently +1800)

Morikawa appears to be a on the verge of another win and it could come this week. With finishes of second and third so far this year, his stellar iron play and consistency off the tee will allow him to separate from the field this week. But the biggest reason I love him this week is the clear benefits his putting changes have already produced. In those two events this year he has gained 7.1 strokes with his putter.

(0.96u) DraftKings

Tony Finau +2500 (currently +2000)

Even with a puzzling course history here Finau is playing too well for his odds to be this long. He’s the third-best player in this field over the past year and has one of the best all-around skill-sets as well. He is fifth off the tee and second in my Scoring model. He is in the midst of the best stretch of his career, and his typically aggressive play should be rewarded at a course like TPC Scottsdale.

(0.96u) DraftKings

Cameron Young +4500 (currently +3500)

Coming off a runner-up finish in Saudi Arabia, Young returns to TPC Scottsdale after finishing 26th here last year. On a driver-heavy track like this, Young should thrive as he has not lost strokes OTT since March. What most people don’t realize is that he is also one of the best ball-strikers in this field as he ranks in the top-20 in both OTT and Approach.

(0.53u) DraftKings

Sam Burns +5500

These are by far the most ridiculous odds on the board. Burns has literally won three events over the past 16 months. Many have the notion that he has been slumping of late when in reality he has two top-11 finishes in his last three events. Like Finau, his history at TPC Scottsdale has been sketchy, but this course sets up perfectly for him. He is also the best Poa trivialis putter in the field. If he can dial in his ball-striking, he will be in contention come Sunday.

(0.43u) DraftKings

Finishing Position Picks

Top 10

Top 20

Top 30 – BetRivers

  • Sam Burns +100 (1.3u)  

Top 40

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Photo by Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images