The Waste Management Open has changed drastically over the years and now fits perfectly as the best Super Bowl pregame show on Sunday afternoon. With over 700,000 in attendance, its equal parts tailgate party, Mardi Gras vibes, and golf all rolled into one four-day weekend in the Arizona desert. There truly is nothing else like it on Tour. The Par-3 16th gets all the attention, but the 17th hole, a driveable Par-4 with water very much in play, is one of the most exciting holes on Tour.
TPC Scottsdale is a pretty straightforward track, but the event has grown in gravitas each year. Thanks to its new ‘elevated’ status, this year’s field is the best yet. Outside of the obvious LIV Golf names and Will Zalatoris, 22 of the top 25 players in the Official World Golf Ranking (and 37 of the top 50) will tee it up this week.
The final few holes at TPC Scottsdale make for an intriguing finish to each round, with risk-reward choices all over the back nine. This is a 7,266 yards par-71 track, a ball-strikers paradise at altitude with fast Bermuda greens, over-seeded with a hybrid grass blend. A quick look at the most recent winners of this event shows a shift from a wide-open event to a place where the top of the board thrives. According to Data Golf, course history at TPC Scottsdale is the third-most predictive of any course on Tour, behind only Augusta National and Waialae CC, so previous success here should be considered, and at least, should be used as a tie-breaker if you’re considering two golfers close in price or in a matchup.
Handicapping early-season events when we have less relevant form data than we do in the spring and summer is a bit more of a feel thing than I’d like it to be. I’d prefer to lean on as much data as possible, but we’re all in the same boat, so let’s work with what we have. For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Here’s an important tidbit about TPC Scottsdale:
The course features 10 par-4s between 400-500 yards. All three par 5s stand between 550-600 yards and are reachable in two shots for most of the field. They are three of the most scoreable par 5s on Tour, as each has a birdie or better rate of over 41%. In order to move up the leaderboard, players will need to birdie and eagle those holes.
Along with Total Driving, ball-striking is the name of the game here in Scottsdale. With firm greens in play this week leading to a 16% further proximity to the hole average, the ability to hit approach shots close for birdie looks is vital. Because of this, a high ball flight is much preferred, which adds to the importance of distance of the tee because it means having shorter lofted irons into greens on approach shots.
My goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting this week. There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, so I’ll share my opinion on the best way to bet on each golfer in my player pool at this week’s event. When pricing out finishing position bets (T5, T10, T20s, etc.), I’ll often lean towards BetMGM even if there’s a better number elsewhere because of MGM’s advantageous dead-heat rules. So know the rules of the books that you’re betting on!
Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets from myself or other contributors. Betting markets are fluid, but I’ll note the best number available at the time of this writing.
*Betting lines are accurate when posted in Discord.
f684b2f3d4218ee06dad551b3bb2074bNoonan’s Waste Management Betting Targets
Collin Morikawa
Over the past two weeks, I’ve told anyone who’ll listen that Collin Morikawa is winning either the Waste Management or next week’s Genesis at Riviera. He’s a great fit for both venues, and he’s a hole or two away from having already bagged multiple 2023 wins and being priced at 12/1 in this week’s event. Instead, he’s finished solo second (TOC) and third (Farmers) the past two times out and showing massive improvements on the greens, his only occasional hiccup in an otherwise flawless game.
Morikawa is the best ball striker on Tour, ranking first in this loaded field over his past 100 rounds or, if you prefer a more recent sample, the past six months (36 rounds played). His off-the-tee performance last time out at Torrey Pines was comically good. For the week, the field hit the fairway on 57.5% of their drives at the Farmers, while Morikawa found the fairway on 34 of his 42 drives, a 79% clip, which led the field and that put him in a position to gain nearly 10 strokes on approach for the week.
The old adage of ‘when he puts well, he wins’ has fallen short the past two weeks, but he’s too good to keep knocking on the door without closing. If the 25 is gone by the time you read this, I’d back Morikawa comfortably here at 20 or higher.
- To Win: 25/1 on DraftKings
- Top 10: +188 BetMGM
In the world of outright golf betting, especially in major championships and now in these loaded field elevated events, it’s difficult to cross guys off your list. The top of the board is always jam-packed with viable options, guys with legit win equity, pedigrees, and hardware to match. Occasionally we’ll see recency bias in short-term form pop up and move someone down a tier on the betting board, and that describes my next few selections.
Justin Thomas
Compared to the small handful of golfers with shorter odds, Justin Thomas’s recent form isn’t quite as polished as his peers, but when you pull back and look at a larger sample, along with what it takes to win here and what Thomas does best, it’s hard to ignore him at 25/1.
JT loves this event and has performed incredibly well at TPC Scottsdale despite not yet sealing the deal on a Sunday. He’s finished no worse than T17 here in the past five years, with back-to-back third-place finishes in 2019 and 2020. He’s fourth in this field in SG: T2G over the past 100 rounds, can make birdies in bunches, and dominates Par-4 scoring.
Most of this field would kill to come into an event with two T25s and a T5 in their past three starts and be considered out of form. That speaks to how good Thomas’s baseline is. We’ve seen Thomas come into events with what we’d classify as rocky form and win, including the 2021 PLAYERS, where he missed two cuts in his previous four starts. Just like Morikawa, If the 25 is gone by the time you read this, I’d back Thomas comfortably here at 20 or higher.
- To Win: 25/1 on BetRivers
Cam Young
A massive part of my Cam Young selection was his opening price. He’s a tougher sell for me at his current price, but I can envision a Scheffler-lite breakthrough here, and the floodgates open behind him. Young has yet to win on Tour but has an incredible eight 2nd and 3rd-place finishes over his past 23 starts, including second at last week’s Saudi event. He’s the best bomb-and-gouger on Tour right now, with insane length off the tee and the ability to get white-hot on the greens.
He’s a great fit for TPC Scottsdale and shouldn’t have been available at 45/1.
- To Win: 45/1 on DraftKings
Sam Burns
Similar to Cam Young, backing Sam Burns was more about his baseline skill and price versus any short-term form, though I was encouraged by his strong showing at the American Express last time out. Burns is a guy I’ve bet a lot over the past five years, and it paid off last season as he ascended into a new tier of golfers, winning multiple events and earning his way onto last fall’s Presidents Cup team.
His results here have been uninspiring, with a T22 and a handful of MCs, but this is a world-class player who’s surrounded on the odds board by golfers who aren’t on his level and haven’t shown the consistency or ceiling that we’ve seen from Burns over the past 18 months.
- To Win: 55/1 on DraftKings
FanDuel Finishing Position Parlay
Xander Schauffele and Hideki Matsuyama – T40 (+105)
This is a relatively new entry to the space, thanks to our friends at FanDuel. I played a number of these last season with a 9.85% ROI, so I’ll continue it this season. If it’s not for you, feel free to skip it.
Unlike most other books I’m familiar with, FanDuel allows you to parlay finishing position bets. Now, the very premise of the bet is flawed because the expected value is negative since players are competing for the same finishing positions. If the bet is two T40s like this one, when one leg of your parlay finishes above the threshold, there’s now one less spot available in that range for the other leg(s) to also come in. I know the math is terrible. Spare me. But let’s be honest. Some bets are just fun, and these are fun for me.
These were sort of my ‘last two out’ on my outright card. However, I really love their form, fit, and course history here, and I would be very surprised if they’re not in contention.
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