The PGA Tour’s west coast swing continues this week on Wednesday with the Farmers Insurance Open featuring the scenic Torrey Pines South Golf Course in La Jolla, California. Torrey Pines has hosted this event every year since 1968. Torrey Pines sits on one of the most scenic golf course sites in America, atop coastal bluffs north of San Diego with dazzling views of the Pacific Ocean.
Lying on land that was occupied by an anti-aircraft battery during World War II, thanks to the frequent morning fog delays and early sunsets, there will be two courses utilized this week. Both are owned and maintained by the City of San Diego. Golfers will play both the North and South courses one time before the cut on Friday. Only the South course will be used on the weekend. While the North course plays much easier and is more tree-lined, the South course sits much closer to the Pacific bringing possible weather effects into play. It is a massively lengthy track. In fact, it is the longest annual Tour course in the rotation, stretching over 7,700 yards.
Other than the one round on the North Course, the scoring this week will be the complete opposite of the birdie-fests we have seen for the first three events of this year. The South Course is the seventh-most difficult course on Tour. The course provides no let-up and players will need to use every club in their bag. Even though it’s played at sea level, Torrey Pines plays even longer than the scorecard yardage due to softer fairways and the cooler January air. Every golfer will need to dust off the cobwebs from their long irons because they will be needed at Torrey Pines. Winning scores at this event have been 15-under par or less in nine of the past ten years.
This is definitely a “sticky” course when looking at the type of players who have success here. Par will be a good score on a majority of the holes played. With it being such a long course, bombers have a definite advantage, yet the winners’ list has also been filled with elite scramblers and poa putting specialists. Ideally, you want to target players who are long and accurate off the tee and who also excel with their short game, particularly on Poa greens.
The Field
It’s the first tough test of the new calendar year and numerous big names have shown up to take on the challenge. Along with last week’s winner, Jon Rahm, other top-20 players in attendance include Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa, Will Zalatoris, Tony Finau, Max Homa, Sungjae Im, and Hideki Matsuyama. Last year’s winner, Luke List also returns along with past champions Justin Rose, Jason Day, Scott Stallings, and Nick Watney.
Thanks to this not being an elevated event, there are, however, a good number of top players who fit Torrey Pines that are sitting this one out. Because of this, the field lacks the depth of years past. The tournament will be played from Wednesday to Saturday for the second consecutive year to appease the NFL playoff schedule. We are back to a standard 36-hole cut this week with the top 65 and ties playing the weekend. Only the South Course is equipped with ShotLink data.
Farmers Insurance Open Betting Narratives and Strategies
Unique Model Weights
- SG: Long and Difficult Courses
- SG: West Coast
The Farmers Insurance Open is typically one of the easier golf tournaments to handicap. History tells us two things about this event. It tends to be dominated by the longer hitters and is also usually won by a world-class player. So do not expect a longshot winner this week. As the “Winning Trends” section shows, winners are almost always one of the 30 best players in the world along with having at least multiple past wins on Tour. Long and straight off the tee is vital. A good percentage of the past winners at this event have also been very good scramblers around the greens. With as many greens as are missed here at Torrey Pines, everyone will have to scramble at times.
This will be one of the ultimate true tests of golf that await players this year. There is no way to fake it around Torrey Pines. Either you have every shot in your bag or you don’t. With the exception of high winds for everyone on Thursday, the weather looks quite benign. Both bombers and shorter hitters have won this event, but the shorter hitters had two very important things in common. They were mostly accurate off the tee and were elite scramblers and putters on Poa grass. While there are routes to success for shorter hitters off the tee, it is a much tougher task this week.
To summarize, there is a specific type of player we should be targeting this week. They should be, preferably, longer hitters off the tee, golfers accurate on approach from 175+ yards. They should be successful par-5 scorers, good scramblers around the green, and historically good-to-average putters on poa. Also, experience and past success at this event and on other long and difficult courses should be another factor we consider.
Weather Forecast – La Jolla, California
Most Important Stats For Success at Torrey Pines
*In order of importance
- Scrambling/SG: ARG
- Total Driving
- SG: Approach
- SG: Putting (Poa)
- Bogey Avoidance
- Par 5 Scoring
- Proximity 175+ yds
- SG: Torrey Pines Course History
- Birdie or Better %
- SG: Long and Difficult Courses
The Farmers Insurance Open Final Model
In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of the individual splits will be posted on my Twitter feed, with the final model exclusively published here for subscribers.
Outright Betting Selections
*Lines accurate at the time of publication.
Tony Finau +1400
Finau tops the model this week, even besting Jon Rahm. From long-iron play to distance off the tee, to Poa putting and scrambling around the greens, Finau checks every box at Torrey Pines. How about form? In the last six months, Finau has three wins and three other top 10s. In his last 19 events, he has only missed two cuts. How about course history? He has three top-six finishes since 2018. Bet Finau in all types of bets with confidence this week.
(1.70u) BetMGM
Max Homa +3000 (currently +2500)
We get another great value with Homa as he continues to be disrespected in all markets. In his last six events, he has finished in the top 23 each time, including three top-5s. He is gaining in every SG category across the board. The improvement that he has made with his short game and chipping will be hugely beneficial at Torrey Pines. The California native is the 6th best putter on Poa greens in this field and thrives in West Coast events. In his last eight starts in California, he has finished 1st-10th-Missed Cut-1st-1st-7th-18th-21st.
(0.80u) PointsBet
Jason Day +3500 (currently +2800)
The Jason Day turnaround that I predicted from last summer has come to fruition. He is completely healthy, and with his new swing changes, his recent form has been spectacular with five top-21 finishes in his last six events. Not only that but this is basically his home course. Similar to Finau’s course history, Day has three top-5s here since 2018. He elite with his long irons and with his touch around the greens. If he gets some putts to fall, watch out on Sunday.
(0.68u) PointsBet
Taylor Pendrith +9000 (currently +8000)
Pendrith’s game has been on the downswing since blowing a lead to Tony Finau during the final round of the Rocket Mortgage Classic. However, considering his course fit and these long odds, Torrey Pines might just be the place for him to put it all together. One of the longest players off the tee, he also is elite with his irons from 200+ yards. He finished 16th last year here and should be able to separate himself from the field tee-to-green.
(0.26u) BetMGM
Other Outright Selections
- Hideki Matsuyama +4500 (0.53u) – PointsBet
- Sahith Theegala +6600 (0.36u) – BetMGM
- Thomas Detry +12500 (0.19u) – PointsBet
Finishing Position Picks
Top 10
- Tony Finau +138 (1u) – DraftKings
Top 20
- Will Zalatoris -110 (1.5u) – DraftKings
- Max Homa +115 (1.5u) – FanDuel
- Jason Day +130 (1u) – FanDuel
Top 30 – All BetRivers
- Sahith Theegala +105 (1.1u)
- J.J. Spaun +110 (1u)
Top 40 – all FanDuel, all 1 unit
- Scott Stallings +105
- Justin Rose +110
- Taylor Pendrith +125
- Wyndham Clark +125
- Kurt Kitayama +125
- Luke List +125
- Patrick Rodgers +140
- Will Gordon +150
- Thomas Detry +155
- Dean Burmester +160
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Photo by Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images