Strategy
f684b2f3d4218ee06dad551b3bb2074bThis tournament is an entirely different ball game compared to the past few events. Scoring will be at a premium, as will bogey avoidance. I’ll be focusing on all of the same player qualities and metrics described in the section below. One area to especially focus on for DFS is par-5 scoring. Those holes will account for about 36% of the scoring this week.
As is the case in most top-heavy events, it is hard to separate players at the top of the board. For this week, due to his high price and the higher number of elite players below him, I will be underweight on the field with Jon Rahm. Because golf is hard, I do not see him winning again this week. My favorite plays up top that I will be overweight on are Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Max Homa.
The entire $7K range is full of course fits for Torrey Pines. This allows for using 2-3 guys in the upper tier and then 3-4 from that $7k range. When I say course fits, I’m talking distance, long-iron play, scrambling, and positive poa putters. All of these players don’t meet all four metrics but the list of players in the $7K range that I am high on include…Rodgers, Clark, Kitayama, Burmester, Stallings, Detry, Pendrith, Munoz, Gordon, Mullinax, Bramlett. With multi-entry, I will be mixing and matching all of these guys with the elite players $9K and above up top.
I love using specific skill-stacks this week. If you don’t know what those are, it is when you load up your lineup with players who are elite at one skill. For this week, bomber off the tee is the main one I will use, followed by longer hitters who are also excellent scramblers.
As with last week’s The American Express, the first two rounds will split the field across the North and South Courses. The North Course plays much easier than the South Course. Showdown players should load up on golfers playing on the North Course on Wednesday and Thursday.
Farmers Insurance Open Narratives and Important Metrics
Unique Model Weights
- SG: Long and Difficult Courses
- SG: West Coast
The Farmers Insurance Open is typically one of the easier golf tournaments in which to create a DFS player pool. History tells us two things about this event. It tends to be dominated by the longer hitters and is also usually won by a world-class player. So do not expect a longshot winner this week. The top-5 on the leaderboard are almost always one of the 30 best players in the world along with having at least multiple past wins on Tour. Long and straight off the tee is vital. A good percentage of the past winners at this event have also been very good scramblers around the greens. With as many greens as are missed here at Torrey Pines, everyone will have to scramble at times.
This will be one of the ultimate true tests of golf that await players this year. There is no way to fake it around Torrey Pines. Either you have every shot in your bag or you don’t. With the exception of high winds for everyone on Thursday, the weather looks quite benign. Both bombers and shorter hitters have won this event, but the shorter hitters had two very important things in common. They were mostly accurate off the tee and were elite scramblers and putters on Poa grass. While there are routes to success for shorter hitters off the tee, it is a much tougher task this week.
To summarize, there is a specific type of player we should be targeting this week. They should be, preferably, longer hitters off the tee, golfers accurate on approach from 175+ yards. They should be successful par-5 scorers, good scramblers around the green, and historically good-to-average putters on poa. Also, experience and past success at this event and on other long and difficult courses should be another factor we consider.
Weather Forecast – La Jolla, California
Most Important Stats For Success at Torrey Pines
*In order of importance
- Scrambling/SG: ARG
- Total Driving
- SG: Approach
- SG: Putting (Poa)
- Bogey Avoidance
- Par 5 Scoring
- Proximity 175+ yds
- SG: Torrey Pines Course History
- Birdie or Better %
- SG: Long and Difficult Courses
Farmers Insurance Open – DraftKings Picks
Each week along with presenting my top choices for each of the categories below, I will include each of the pertinent stats for the specific event that comes directly from my model. Except for the “Core Plays,” which most weeks will typically be somewhat on the chalky side, I will include at least one player I am positive on who is forecast to be lower-owned and who will present a good pivot from some of the higher-owned options. In essence, the players you see below make up the majority of my player pool for this event.
Core Plays
Upper-Tier Plays
Mid-Range Plays
Value Plays
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