In the first full-field event of 2023, the PGA Tour hops Hawaiian islands for the second event of the “Aloha Swing”, going from Maui to O’ahu for the Sony Open played at the classical Waialae Country Club in Honolulu. With legendary figures such as Jack Nicklaus, Tom Watson, Lee Trevino and Ben Crenshaw having graced the property and won championships here, the course carries on still today, withstanding the test of time. Having hosted the Sony Open since 1965, it is the third oldest annual course on Tour, only behind Colonial Country Club and Pebble Beach Golf Links.
Waialae CC is known as a shot-makers golf course distinguished by its narrow corridors, sharp doglegs, unpredictable Bermuda rough, and firm greens. It is a positional track that has effectively neutralized any advantages held by bombers off the tee. In essence, this week is all about strategy, position and shot-making on a tight and flat course. In the words of Kevin Kisner, “I like that it’s a shot-maker’s golf course. It’s a shorter, ball-striker’s paradise. You’ve got to play to certain spots. I think it’s Point A to Point B and make some putts.”
Coming off four rounds at the Plantation Course at Kapalua, this week will present quite the contrast with the completely divergent Waialae CC. While Kapalua has enormous amounts of slope and is the toughest walk in golf, Waialae is one of the flattest courses on Tour and is perhaps the easiest walk. The sizes of both courses are also completely different. Whereas Kapalua has massively wide fairways, Waialae has tight tree-lined corridors. The greens are also dissimilar from each other. Kapalua’s are much bigger with more slope and grain while Waialae’s are smaller, flatter, and easier to make putts.
While not a complete birdie-fest, minus the wind-blown 2020 event, the average winning score over the past five tournaments has been 22-under par. It’s a course where if you hit good shots, you can make a birdie on almost every hole. But if you are in the rough or out of position, you have a tough scramble for par.
The Field
19 golfers who played in last week’s Tournament of Champions are making the short trip to Honolulu this week. As the course trends show, those who did not play last week will need to shake off the competitive rust and will be at a slight disadvantage.
While not the star-studded event we saw at Kapalua, it is still a quality field with eight of the top 25 and 22 of the top 65 in the Official World Golf Rankings in attendance. There are still a number of headliners including Jordan Spieth, Tom Kim, Sungjae Im, and last year’s champion, Hideki Matsuyama.
Being the first cut event of the year, the 144 golfers in the field will be “cut” to the top 65 players, including ties, by the end of Friday afternoon’s second round.
Four players fit each trend: Billy Horschel, Adam Scott, J.T. Poston and Mackenzie Hughes
Sony Open Betting Narratives and Strategies
Unique Model Weights
- SG: Short Courses
- SG: All-Bermuda Grass Courses
- SG: January
The key to success here typically revolves around keeping the ball in play off the tee and getting hot with the putter on the Bermuda greens. I am definitely favoring strong Bermuda putters who show confidence on these greens and can convert birdie chances. These players will be at the top of my SG: Putting split in the model. Like with most tournaments, Waialae is a second-shot course where SG: Approach is always a key factor. With the two par-5s being the easiest on Tour, players must take advantage of those holes each round.
Other factors for success that I have baked into the model this week include players who thrive with their short-to-mid irons from 125-200 yards and players who are positive on par-4s from 400-500 yards. The unique splits this week, such as golfers who have performed well on other “Less-Than-Driver” courses, and on courses that are shorter than average, is another angle to research. I personally love the SG: January split. It really shows which plays tend to start off the year playing well, and also which players are not as affected by the long holiday layoff. Most of those “unique” splits are self-explanatory, but if anyone ever has any questions, feel free to ask on the Discord channel.
Like last week, this is another event where the trends are quite strong in predicting qualities for a potential winner. Playing the week before at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, having multiple years of experience on this course, winning at least once on Tour and being a great putter were all prerequisites for having past success here.
According to Data Golf, Waialae is second to only Augusta National in terms of predictive course history, so this is as good a week as any to factor past course history here into your research process. Course history combined with golfers who played at Kapalua last week are factored in heavily to my process this week. A majority of players on my outright and finish position card fit both of those boxes including Corey Conners, Brian Harman, and Adam Svensson among others.
As for the Tom Kim conundrum that so many are seemingly facing this week, I believe you must have action on him somewhere on your betting card. Nobody likes betting outrights at 12-1, but in my opinion, it is foolish to not bet on him just because he is too close to single digits. He has had one of the most amazing starts to a PGA Tour career in recent memory and has proved that is a perfect fit for a course such as Waialae with wins at Sedgefield and TPC Summerlin. And as good as he looked last week, and with favorites dominating events over the past year, I would be surprised if he doesn’t win.
Weather Forecast – Honolulu, Hawaii
The Sony Open Final Model
In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of the individual splits will be posted on my Twitter feed, with the final model exclusively published here for subscribers.
Outright Betting Selections
*Lines accurate at the time of publication.
Tom Kim +1200 (currently +1100)
As already mentioned above, Waialae CC is a perfect fit for Kim’s style of play. Not long off the tee, he will able to use his pinpoint accuracy to attack fairways and flagsticks all four rounds. He is already among the elite iron players in the world and has shown amazing consistency on the greens with his flat stick. In limited sample size, Bermuda has been his best putting surface thus far. In his 12 events since the U.S. Open, he has seven top-15s and has only lost strokes in one event.
(2u) BetMGM
Corey Conners +2800 (currently +2200)
It’s always hard to pull the trigger on Conners because he hasn’t won an event in so long. But his course fit and history here at Waialae are undeniable. He has three top-12s here including a third-place finish in 2019. His recent consistency has also been amazing. In his last nine events, he has only finished outside of the top 28 one time. While the flat stick is typically his downfall, in four appearances here he has gained 14 total strokes putting! Like Kim, he also played last week at Kapalua and should be sharp heading into this event.
(0.85u) PointsBet
Brian Harman +4000 (currently +2000)
Similar to Conners, Harman always brings pause because he hasn’t won in six years. Most would be shocked that he is actually the 23rd-ranked player in the world. So I jumped on what had to be a mistake in odds when his price was +4000 early on Monday morning. Harman checks all the boxes in the stats that matter this week. From fairway accuracy to proximity from 125-200 yards to short game play, Harman is one of the best plays this week.
(0.60u) PointsBet
Keith Mitchell +4000
Whenever course history collides with an “All-Bermuda” grass course, Mitchell is usually a high target on my list. He is fourth in my Off the Tee model this week and thrives on Bermuda greens. He has three top-16s in his last four trips here. Reports are that he has been focusing his practice time on improving from the important 125-200 yard range. If he can dial in those approaches he will be in the mix come Sunday.
(0.60u) PointsBet
Finishing Position Picks
Top 10
- Tom Kim +150 (1u) – BetRivers
Top 20
- Hideki Matsuyama +110 (1.1u) – BetRivers
- Russell Henley +120 (1u) – BetRivers
- Corey Conners +125 (1.5u) – BetRivers
- Billy Horschel +165 (1u) – FanDuel
- Keith Mitchell +190 (1u) – FanDuel
Top 30
Top 40
- Mackenzie Hughes -115 (1.2u) – FanDuel
- J.T. Poston -105 (1.2u) – FanDuel
- Adam Svensson +110 (1.2u) – BetRivers
- Alex Smalley +110 (1.1u) – FanDuel
- Russell Knox +130 (1u) – FanDuel
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Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images