Strategy
With the Sony Open being the first full-field “cut-event” tournament for the year, the strategy changes dramatically for DFS purposes compared to last week. With only the top-65 and ties making it to the weekend, another season is upon us where we try to solve one of the mysteries of life – getting six of six players through the cut-line. Even for myself, having played DFS golf for many years, getting a decent rate of all six golfers through continues to be a challenge. Depending on the course, the field, and player salaries, there are many types of lineup strategies to employ that will change from week to week.
f684b2f3d4218ee06dad551b3bb2074bThis week, everything begins and ends with Tom Kim. His current ownership projections of around 22-27% are less than I was expecting when considering his very palatable price of $10.5K. That being said, I will have Kim in a majority of my lineups this week and possibly close to 70%. Hideki Matsuyama and Jordan Spieth are projecting as the two leverage plays in the $10K range with each projected around 13%.
As we look further down the board, ownership is very spread out with only Billy Horschel, Maverick McNealy, Adam Scott, Si Woo Kim and Christiaan Bezuidenhout with single digit ownership down to the bottom of the $8K range. Since there are so many course fits and great plays this week I will be playing more lineups than usual. I typically play anywhere from 20-50 lineups but might increase that to 100 this week. As for strategy, with the $7K range having plenty of value options (below), the majority of my lineups will have Tom Kim and one of my other favorite upper-tier plays, Corey Conners. Russell Henley and Billy Horschel. That leaves around $7.5K to mix and match with the values below.
Sony Open Betting Narratives and Strategies
Unique Model Weights
- SG: Short Courses
- SG: All-Bermuda Grass Courses
- SG: January
The key to success here typically revolves around keeping the ball in play off the tee and getting hot with the putter on the Bermuda greens. I am definitely favoring strong Bermuda putters who show confidence on these greens and can convert birdie chances. These players will be at the top of my SG: Putting split in the model. Like with most tournaments, Waialae is a second-shot course where SG: Approach is always a key factor. With the two par-5s being the easiest on Tour, players must take advantage of those holes each round.
Other factors for success that I have baked into the model this week include players who thrive with their short-to-mid irons from 125-200 yards and players who are positive on par-4s from 400-500 yards. The unique splits this week, such as golfers who have performed well on other “Less-Than-Driver” courses, and on courses that are shorter than average, is another angle to research. I personally love the SG: January split. It really shows which plays tend to start off the year playing well, and also which players are not as affected by the long holiday layoff. Most of those “unique” splits are self-explanatory, but if anyone ever has any questions, feel free to ask on the Discord channel.
Like last week, this is another event where the trends are quite strong in predicting qualities for a potential winner. Playing the week before at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, having multiple years of experience on this course, winning at least once on Tour and being a great putter were all prerequisites for having past success here.
According to Data Golf, Waialae is second to only Augusta National in terms of predictive course history, so this is as good a week as any to factor past course history here into your research process. Course history combined with golfers who played at Kapalua last week are factored in heavily to my process this week. A majority of players in my DraftKings pool fit both of those boxes including Conners, Henley, Horschel, Brian Harman, and Adam Svensson among others.
There is a potential weather-wave advantage shaping up Thursday for the PM/AM golfers. Winds are forecast to be much stronger in the morning (Hawaii time) and then decreasing around 1 pm. On Friday, though winds are mostly light all day, they are close to calm in the morning. So continue to monitor this leading up to the opening tee on Thursday.
Weather Forecast – Honolulu, Hawaii
The Sony Open – DraftKings Picks
Each week along with presenting my top choices for each of the categories below, I will include each of the pertinent stats for the specific event that comes directly from my model. Except for the “Core Plays,” which most weeks will typically be somewhat on the chalky side, I will include at least one player I am positive on who is forecast to be lower-owned and who will present a good pivot from some of the higher-owned options. In essence, the players you see below make up the majority of my player pool for this event.
Core Plays
Upper-Tier Plays
Mid-Range Plays
Value Plays
Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images