We are starting the year with a very unique golf tournament as this is a “no-cut” event with only 39 golfers in the field. There are only a few similar tournaments throughout the year with such few competitors including events like the Tour Championship and the Hero Open. That being said, there is definitely a strategy that has proven to be successful on the DFS streets related to tournaments such as this, and that is a “Stars and Scrubs” approach. With so many of the best players in the world in the field, this tournament produces a top-tier winner on most occasions.
f684b2f3d4218ee06dad551b3bb2074bThe words “upside” and “ceiling” are two of the words you will hear all the time related to these types of small-field, “no-cut” tournaments. With all golfers guaranteed to play four rounds, we want as many players with win equity in our lineups as possible. This might be as many as two or three players in the top salary tier. We then fill out the rest of our lineup with value plays that also have the upside to finish in the top 10. We also want aggressive players who have a tendency to go on birdie streaks. Cheaper options like Aaron Wise and Tom Hoge are two names that immediately come to mind.
The other common strategy is a more balanced approach with maybe one top-tier golfer and five others in the mid-range. For this event, that is definitely a viable strategy as the value tier does not have that many appealing options.
Because of the high variance of this event, and the fact we have no idea which players have stayed sharp and which have gained 10 pounds and not even touched a golf club, it is very wise to scale back on the amount and types of contests you are playing. I would definitely stick to single-entry and 3-max type contests. With only 39 golfers to choose from, leaving money on the table is a smart option to ensure you don’t have a duplicate lineup. Finally, with no weather concerns and all 39 golfers teeing it off within the same three-hour window, there is no time or weather-wave advantage to be had.
Honolua Bay, Hawaii Weather Forecast (January 5th-January 8th)
The Sentry Tournament of Champions DraftKings Picks
Each week along with presenting my top choices for each of the categories below, I will include each of the pertinent stats for the specific event that comes directly from my model. Except for the “Core Plays,” which most weeks will typically be somewhat on the chalky side, I will include at least one player I am positive on who is forecast to be lower-owned and who will present a good pivot from some of the higher-owned options.
Core Plays
Upper-Tier Plays
Mid-Range Plays
Value Plays
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