2022 Houston Open Round 2 Betting and Showdown Picks

Best Live Outright Adds

There are some interesting live outright odds for players with win equity who typically raise their playing level on tough courses.

Scottie Scheffler +1600 (5 shots behind) – On a course where scoring will continue to get more difficult as the weekend progresses, five shots to make up over three rounds is very possible (even likely) for the best player in the field. Surprised the odds aren’t closer to +1000.
Keith Mitchell +2000 (1 shot behind) – Mitchell gained 2.68 strokes ball-striking on Thursday and should be set for another positive round on Friday. Over the past year, he leads the entire field in 2nd Round Gained Strokes Rate at 83%. His strong play off the tee and streaky putting on Bermuda will continue to give him an edge on this course.
Hideki Matsuyama +7500 (5 shots behind) – This number is just ridiculous. Matsuyama gained 1.5 strokes ball-striking and always plays well on these tough courses. He is a top-15 player in the world. These odds are well worth a sprinkle.
Luke List +20000 (4 shots back) – Another misprice. List is one of the best ball-strikers in the world and he gained 2.3 in the first round. If he can just stay neutral with the putter, he has a realistic chance to win.

Weather Forecast – Houston, TX

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Winds dramatically increase late in the afternoon, but most players will be off the course by then so I do not see it having much impact.

Round 2 Betting Matchups Model

*Strokes Gained Rating (SG RTG) is the key metric that combines all the weighted categories in the model. Some players (or matchups) may not be listed due to not having enough sample size data.