The PGA Tour’s swing season heads back to the states and Memorial Park Golf Course in Houston, Texas, for the Cadence Bank Houston Open.
Memorial Park is set to play as a long Par-70 track that stretches out to 7,432 yards with large Bermudagrass greens. Memorial Park will feature five Par-5s and five Par-3s, a unique but notable wrinkle, along with a drivable Par-4, which offers a risk-reward to each player who stands on the 13th tee. While the Houston Open has been around for over 100 years, this is just the third year of this course, so we’re drawing off a limited sample size to determine what skill set is a priority when handicapping this field. What we do know is that this is different from your typical birdie-or-better swing season course, where the winning scores often approach or exceed 20-under par.
For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview, but here’s an important tidbit:
f684b2f3d4218ee06dad551b3bb2074bAs one of the longest courses on Tour, along with a lack of hazards and bunkers off the tee, golfers are able to use driver without hesitation on almost every par-4 and par-5 hole. Distance is definitely an advantage and ranks as the 10th highest on Tour at 291 yards. Longer drives mean players have less lengthy approach shots into firm greens.
Accuracy matters here as well because golfers who miss fairways will have to deal with the unpredictable Bermuda rough. As Adam Scott said, “The course is relentless. It’s just demanding off the tee. It requires something long and straight.”
Last year, off the tee only accounted for 10% of the total strokes gained, which is one of the lowest allotments on Tour. And that makes sense with both approach and around the green play being the great separators of talent as Memorial Park is one of the most difficult courses on Tour in those areas.
There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, and my goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting this week. Based on past player quotes and leaderboards, I’m prioritizing distance off the tee this week. Of course, other parts of the game matter here, like approach shots from 200+ yards out, Bermudagreen positive results, and around the green game, but give me the single archetype betting card. I considered backing Sam Burns here and calling it a day, and perhaps I’ll add him live as the event develops.
Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets. Betting markets are fluid, but I’ll note the best number available at the time of this writing.
*Betting lines are accurate at the time of publication.
Noonan’s Houston Open Betting Targets
Taylor Pendrith
We’ve only seen Pendrith twice during the swing season, and the results have been fairly pedestrian, but he rounded out the 2021-22 regular season on a tear. He made nine straight cuts, seven of those finishes coming inside the top 25, including a second-place at the Rocket Mortgage and a T8 at the BMW Championship. He belongs in the second tier on this betting board, but he opened at 60 in a few spots, and that’s a mistake.
To Win: 60/1 BetMGM
Sepp Straka
Sepp Straka is another golfer who finished the regular season in excellent form and carried it over for a bit to start the swing season, nearly winning at Sanderson Farms. Now we get Straka back on Bermudagrass, and he’s buried on this betting board at 80/1. He doesn’t have the distance element that I’m prioritizing here, but his recent form, plus his two T5 finishes here, pushes me over the edge.
To Win: 80/1 PointsBet
Cameron Champ
If distance off the tee is a prerequisite, then Cam Champ must be in consideration. Also, the shaved run-offs and false fronts at Memorial Park have drawn some similarities to Augusta National, and since Champ has consistently played well at the Masters regardless of his form leading up to the event, he’s caught my attention this week. He played well at the ZOZO in mid-October, shooting under par all four rounds and finishing in 8th place, so he’s at least shown an inkling of form this swing season. He also profiles well on approaches of 200+ yards out, and he should have an advantage on these long Par-5s.
To Win: 100/1 BetMGM
FanDuel Finishing Position Parlay
Will Gordon and Trey Mullinax – T40 (+393) FanDuel
I’m going to feature my other two outright selections here, Will Gordon and Trey Mullinax.
I bet Gordon to win at 90/1 on PointBet, and he fits the bomber profile I’m looking for this week. His form is also excellent, including a T3 last week in Mexico, his fifth-straight made cut this swing season. He also played well down the stretch on the Korn Ferry Tour last season and has the pedigree to compete on Tour this season.
The same can be said for Trey Mullinax. His swing season has been pretty uneventful, but he played terrific golf down the stretch last season, and his plus distance and pro-Bermudagrass inclination put him on my radar this week. I backed him at 150/1 to win this event, and he’s a solid plus-money leg to round out this parlay.
Unlike most other books I’m familiar with, FanDuel allows you to parlay finishing position bets. Now, the very premise of the bet is flawed because the expected value is negative since players are competing for the same finishing positions. If the bet is two T40s like this one, when one leg of your parlay finishes above the threshold, there’s now one less spot available in that range for the other leg(s) to also come in. I know the math is terrible. Spare me. But let’s be honest. Some bets are just fun, and these are fun for me.
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Featured Image – Chris Hyde/Getty Images