Keys to Success
f684b2f3d4218ee06dad551b3bb2074bWith the jungles, mangrove wetlands and canals surrounding many of the fairways, there aren’t many courses on Tour that put greater importance on accuracy off the tee. El Camaleon is definitely a “first-shot” course. Yes, accuracy on approach shots is still vital, but with the Driving Accuracy here being 56.3% (which is almost 5% tougher than Tour average), the “Fairways Gained” stat takes on a whole new level of importance.
While distance is not important here, players who miss the fairway regularly will be in huge trouble. There are only a few yards of rough on each side of the fairway before the hazard areas take over, including the aforementioned jungle, wetlands and canals that surround most holes.
Because of the danger areas and doglegs, there are numerous holes where golfers choose to club down off the tee to avoid trouble. As 2018 winner Matt Kuchar said, “If you’re missing fairways, it means you’re in the mangroves, you’re in the hazard, you’re taking penalty drops, you’re really in trouble. If you’re driving it well, you have a chance to perform well.” Related to my betting card this week, the number one metric I am starting with is Fairways Gained. My DraftKings lineups will not have a single player that is wild off the tee.
This is also a “Horses for Courses” week. Course history can definitely be overrated for certain weeks, but when analyzing golfers who have played here more than three times, it is clear to see the pattern of either success or failure. For example, Russell Henley should be a good fit for this course. Yet in his last three trips here he has finished 56, MC, MC. On the flip side, whether its the coastal setting, the Paspalum grass or the narrow fairways, something about this course fits Joel Dahmen’s eye. In his five trips here he has finished inside the top-45 each time, including a 6th place finish in 2020.
Similar to the course history angle, players who have performed well on Paspalum grass is another narrative I am chasing. Paspalum is a real spongy grass that takes some time to get used to, and some players just flat-out struggle on this surface. Brandon Wu is an example of someone who thrives on this surface. In his handful of PGA Tour appearances on courses that feature Paspalum, he has finishes that include a 28th, 3rd, 7th, and a 2nd.
Playa del Carmen, Mexico – Weather Forecast (November 3rd-November 6th)
Top 10 Most Important Stats
*In order of importance.
- Fairways Gained
- SG: APP
- Opportunities Gained
- Good Drive %
- Course History – El Camaleon
- Birdie or Better %
- Bogeys Avoided
- SG: Putting (overall)
- SG: Paspalum Grass Courses
- Par 4 Scoring
The WWT Championship at Mayakoba DraftKings Picks
Each week along with presenting my top choices for each of the categories below, I will include each of the pertinent stats for the specific event that comes directly from my model. Except for the “Core Plays,” which most weeks will typically be somewhat on the chalky side, I will include at least one player I am positive on who is forecast to be lower-owned and who will present a good pivot from some of the higher-owned options.
Core Plays
Upper-Tier Plays
Mid-Range Plays
Value Plays
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