Located on high ground overlooking the Atlantic Ocean on the western shore of Southampton Parish, Port Royal Golf Course is one of the world’s most scenic island courses. Known as one of Jack Nicklaus’ all-time favorites, it is a government-run municipal course designed by Robert Trent Jones in 1970. This week Port Royal will host the fourth edition of the Bermuda Championship.
f684b2f3d4218ee06dad551b3bb2074bOne of the shortest courses played in the PGA Tour’s annual rotation, it is characterized by its hilly terrain, challenging par-3s, and the seemingly ever-present threat of windy conditions. And with the current threat of a tropical depression forming just southwest of the island, we could be in for an interesting week of weather.
While the Bermuda Championship has never been known to have anything close to a “strong” field, the absolute weakness of this year’s field takes the cake. There are only five players in the field that are ranked in the OWGR top 100 including Seamus Power (the highest rated at No. 48), Polish sensation Adrian Meronk, Denny McCarthy, Lucas Glover, and Erik van Rooyen. Last year’s winner, Lucas Herbert apparently did not think it was worth the trip to defend his title.
No matter the field strength, this is still a full-fledged 132-player Tour event with 500 FedExCup points and a purse of $6.5 million, with the winner’s share coming in at $1,170,000. After a couple of weeks of no-cut events, the Bermuda Championship will have a 36-hole cut after Friday’s round with the top 65 players and ties making it to play the weekend.
Keys To Success at Port Royal GC
When looking at the first three editions of this event at Port Royal Golf Course we can see that the winners (Brendon Todd, Brian Gay, and Lucas Herbert) have consisted of three elite putters, two fairway finders (Todd and Gay) and a bomber-type in Herbert who is also an excellent wind-player. By the way, Todd and Gay also have excellent track records on coastal courses that typically have windy conditions.
I fully believe that putting matters this week more than the average event. Depending on the winds, the green speeds at Port Royal have been as slow as a 9 on the stimp meter but typically run around 10. While there won’t be enough scoring to call it a putting contest, performance on the greens is much more important because Port Royal is a course that does not allow elite ball-strikers to separate themselves from the field. While we still want to target quality ball-strikers, golfers who putt well on bermuda greens should also be strongly considered.
With Port Royal being the shortest course in the Tour rotation, it makes sense that the “plodder” types who can control their ball flight would tend to have the most success here. With the wind being more of a factor last year, we did see some of the bigger hitters like Lucas Herbert and Taylor Pendrith have success as well. Basically, any type of player can have success at this course.
The 2-inch rough is not that penal, and with greens expected to be very soft thanks to all the rain, players should be able to hold their ball on the greens. That of course is dependent on the biggest x-factor this week – the strength of the wind. And as you can see below, there will be wind this week. That being said, the best “wind players” are usually the best ball-strikers who have a knack for consistently finding the middle of the clubface with their irons. I also believe certain players are more talented than others at playing in windy conditions. Whether that edge comes from more past experiences in the wind (perhaps where they grew up), or they are simply just better at flighting and shaping their ball in blustery conditions, it will be interesting to see how it plays out this week.
Southampton, Bermuda Weather Forecast (October 27th-October 30th)
With a tropical disturbance in the area, Friday and Saturday appear to be the two days mostly affected by the wind. However, as those of you know who have followed these coastal tournaments in the past, wind gusts can come and go at any time and are very unpredictable.
Along with targeting players who have performed well in the past on both shorter courses and in windy conditions, another angle to consider this week is just how weak this Bermuda Chamionship field actually is. With a field strength rating of only 126, it is barely stronger than a few of the Korn Ferry events that were recently held at the end of last season.
There are only five players in the field that are ranked in the OWGR top 100 including Seamus Power (the highest rated at No. 48), Polish sensation Adrian Meronk, Denny McCarthy, Lucas Glover, and Erik van Rooyen. Last year’s winner, Lucas Herbert apparently did not think it was even worth the trip to defend his title. Along with targeting ball-strikers and positive players in the wind, I will also look to add players to my betting card who have performed above their baseline in past weak-field events similar to this one.
Finally, in events like this where is a lack of upper-tier players I like to take more of a long-term macro approach when analyzing the data. Most of these golfers have played very sporadically over the last couple of months and the volatility of this event is increased even more thanks to the weather conditions. While recent form does still matter, I will instead shift to more of a longer-term “12-month” analysis when putting together the metrics for the week. I found this to be very helpful in these weaker-field events because it shows more of a complete picture of who the more consistent and talented players are.
Top 10 Most Important Stats
*In order of importance.
- SG: APP
- SG: Coastal Courses/Windy Conditions
- SG: Putting (Bermuda)
- Good Drive %
- Scrambling
- Birdie or Better %
- Bogeys Avoided
- Fairways Gained
- SG: Weak Fields/Short Courses
- Proximity 75-150 yds
The Bermuda Championship Final Model
In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of the individual splits will be posted on my Twitter feed, with the final model exclusively published here for subscribers.
Outright Betting Selections
*Lines accurate at the time of publication.
Thomas Detry +3000
The Belgian has played a majority of his career golf in windy conditions whether it be in Europe or on coastal tracks on the PGA Tour. Even with his youth, he is one of the most talented and accomplished golfers in this field. He finished 22nd here last year and is one of the best putters on bermuda greens in the field.
(0.96u) PointsBet
Alex Smalley +3400 (currently +3100)
One of the rising young players on the PGA Tour, Smalley has shown a knack for playing above his baseline on coastal courses at similar events. Along with his 12th-place finish here last year, he finished 10th in a strong Scottish Open, and at another island course, Corales Puntacana, he has finishes of 2nd, 22nd and 14th. While always a solid ball-striker, his putting has shown signs of improvement and bermudagrass is his favored surface.
(0.80u) FanDuel
Russell Knox +4500
While he will be a popular choice this week (especially on DraftKings), his prowess in the wind and on shorter tracks like Port Royal is too good to ignore. Growing up in Scotland, he is well-versed in the conditions golfers will face this week. He is an elite-iron player and has had past success here with finishes of 12th, 16th and 11th.
(0.45u) PointsBet
Adam Long +5000
Long checks all the boxes this week. While there is not one area of his game that will wow anyone, he is one of the more consistent players on Tour. And that is exactly what we are looking for considering the volatility of this week. His lack of distance off the tee will not hurt him on this course. He is the 4th best putter in this field and leads in Strokes Gained in weak-field events. Combine his putting skills with his excellent approach play and past success on coastal courses and you can see why Long is a great fit for this week.
Callum Tarren +5500
Tarren is one of the most improved players on Tour and should win his first event this year. Over the past 36 rounds, he has gained in all four of the strokes gained categories. He has also shown an ability to get streaky hot with the putter. Odds at +5500 present tons of value.
(0.43u) BetRivers
Other Outright Selections
- Erik van Rooyen +7000 (0.34u) – BetRivers
- Garrick Higgo +13000 (0.18u) – DraftKings
- Nate Lashley +13000 (0.18u) – DraftKings
Finishing Position Picks
Top 20
- Brandon McCarthy +105 (1.5u) – BetRivers
- Mark Hubbard +140 (1u) – PointsBet
- Thomas Detry +150 (1u) – FanDuel
- Aaron Rai +170 (1u) – PointsBet
- Russell Knox +175 (1.2u) – BetRivers
Top 30
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Photo by Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images