*Coming off a week where yours truly took down the $5K Eagle tournament for the CJ Cup on FanDuel with a core lineup of Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm and Kurt Kitayama, we will look to stay hot at this week’s Bermuda Championship. Truth be told, that was one of the first weeks I have ever played on FanDuel. As some of you know, the pricing is often much “different” compared to DraftKings. But since I will most likely start playing weekly there (how could I not?), I will start to include my top FanDuel plays in this article as well.
Keys To Success at Port Royal GC
When looking at the first three editions of this event at Port Royal Golf Course we can see that the winners (Brendon Todd, Brian Gay, and Lucas Herbert) have consisted of three elite putters, two fairway finders (Todd and Gay) and a bomber-type in Herbert who is also an excellent wind-player. By the way, Todd and Gay also have excellent track records on coastal courses that typically have windy conditions.
I fully believe that putting matters this week more than the average event. Depending on the winds, the green speeds at Port Royal have been as slow as a 9 on the stimp meter but typically run around 10. While there won’t be enough scoring to call it a putting contest, performance on the greens is much more important because Port Royal is a course that does not allow elite ball-strikers to separate themselves from the field. While we still want to target quality ball-strikers, golfers who putt well on bermuda greens should also be strongly considered.
f684b2f3d4218ee06dad551b3bb2074bWith Port Royal being the shortest course in the Tour rotation, it makes sense that the “plodder” types who can control their ball flight would tend to have the most success here. With the wind being more of a factor last year, we did see some of the bigger hitters like Lucas Herbert and Taylor Pendrith have success as well. Basically, any type of player can have success at this course.
The 2-inch rough is not that penal, and with greens expected to be very soft thanks to all the rain, players should be able to hold their ball on the greens. That of course is dependent on the biggest x-factor this week – the strength of the wind. And as you can see below, there will be wind this week. That being said, the best “wind players” are usually the best ball-strikers who have a knack for consistently finding the middle of the clubface with their irons. I also believe certain players are more talented than others at playing in windy conditions. Whether that edge comes from more past experiences in the wind (perhaps where they grew up), or they are simply just better at flighting and shaping their ball in blustery conditions, it will be interesting to see how it plays out this week.
Southampton, Bermuda Weather Forecast (October 27th-October 30th)
With a tropical disturbance in the area, Friday and Saturday appear to be the two days mostly affected by the wind. However, as those of you know who have followed these coastal tournaments in the past, wind gusts can come and go at any time and are very unpredictable.
Along with targeting players who have performed well in the past on both shorter courses and in windy conditions, another angle to consider this week is just how weak this Bermuda Chamionship field actually is. With a field strength rating of only 126, it is barely stronger than a few of the Korn Ferry events that were recently held at the end of last season.
There are only five players in the field that are ranked in the OWGR top 100 including Seamus Power (the highest rated at No. 48), Polish sensation Adrian Meronk, Denny McCarthy, Lucas Glover, and Erik van Rooyen. Last year’s winner, Lucas Herbert apparently did not think it was even worth the trip to defend his title. Along with targeting ball-strikers and positive players in the wind, I will also look to add players to my pool who have performed above their baseline in past weak-field events similar to this one.
Finally, in events like this where is a lack of upper-tier players I like to take more of a long-term macro approach when analyzing the data. Most of these golfers have played very sporadically over the last couple of months and the volatility of this event is increased even more thanks to the weather conditions. While recent form does still matter, I will instead shift to more of a longer-term “12-month” analysis when putting together the metrics for the week. I found this to be very helpful in these weaker-field events because it shows more of a complete picture of who the more consistent and talented players are.
When narrowing the data to just these most important factors mentioned above, and giving appropriate weight to each category, here is a breakdown of how the field ranks heading into this week’s Bermuda Championship.
*This is only data from PGA Tour events. Players like Adrian Meronk who do not have enough sample size have been excluded. Meronk is one of the most talented players in this field and will be in my player pool.
Strategy and Lineup Construction
We are back to a full-field event with a Friday cut-line. Although it could change and should be monitored, there does not appear to be any weather-wave advantages at the moment. For me, as outlined above, the recipe for success is quite simple this week. My player pool will be filled with those players who rank highly in the metrics included in the chart above with a specific focus on ball-strikers who can putt on bermuda greens and who have shown past success on coastal courses and in windy conditions. Yet, as all of us know who follow golf, predicting success in a sport this volatile is never easy.
As for lineup construction, with the lower price ranges looking rather bleak this week, I am sticking to a more balanced approach. With pricing tough on both sites, I’m not focusing as much on ownership this week and, considering the course and the weather, am just playing the best golfers according to the model. When comparing the two sites, the best values on DraftKings include Russell Knox, Nate Lashley, Ben Griffin and Hank Lebioda. The best values on FanDuel include Aaron Rai, Nick Hardy, and Sam Ryder.
Core Plays (both sites)
Adam Long ($8.9K DraftKings, $10.0K FanDuel)
Long checks all the boxes this week. While there is not one area of his game that will wow anyone, he is one of the more consistent players on Tour. And that is exactly what we are looking for considering the volatility of this week. His lack of distance off the tee will not hurt him on this course. He is the 4th best putter in this field and leads in Strokes Gained in weak-field events. Combine his putting skills with his excellent approach play and past success on coastal courses and you can see why Long is a great fit for this week.
Russell Knox ($9.2K DraftKings, $11.2K FanDuel)
While he will be a popular choice this week (especially on DraftKings), his prowess in the wind and on shorter tracks like Port Royal is too good to ignore. Growing up in Scotland, he is well-versed in the conditions golfers will face this week. He is an elite-iron player and has had past success here with finishes of 12th, 16th and 11th.
Alex Smalley ($9.5K DraftKings, $10.9K FanDuel)
One of the rising young players on the PGA Tour, Smalley has shown a knack for playing above his baseline on coastal courses at similar events. Along with his 12th-place finish here last year, he finished 10th in a strong Scottish Open, and at another island course, Corales Puntacana, he has finishes of 2nd, 22nd and 14th. While always a solid ball-striker, his putting has shown signs of improvement and bermudagrass is his favored surface.
Upper-Tier Plays
- Denny McCarthy ($10.4K DK, $12.0K FD)
- Mark Hubbard ($10.0K DK, $11.6K FD)
- Thomas Detry ($10.5K DK, $11.7K FD)
- Aaron Rai (10.1K DK, $10.4K FD)
Mid-Range Plays
- Nick Taylor ($8.8K DK)
- Adam Schenk ($8.7K DK, $9.9K FD)
- Austin Eckroat ($8.3K DK, $9.7K FD)
- Callum Tarren ($8.2K DK)
Value Plays
- Nate Lashley ($7.0K DK, $8.5K FD)
- Ben Griffin ($7.2K DK)
- Lucas Glover ($7.5K DK)
- Cameron Percy ($7.9K DK)
- Hank Lebioda ($7.0K DK)
- Vaughn Taylor ($6.6K DK, $7.6K FD)
- Doug Ghim ($7.8K DK)
- Sam Ryder ($7.7K DK, $8.8K FD)
- Chesson Hadley ($7.6K DK)
- Tyler Duncan ($7.4K DK, $8.9K FD)
Photo by Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images