Tucked away in the southern corner of South Carolina’s Low Country sits a strategic masterpiece. Congaree Golf Club is a Tom Fazio design with wide-open fairways, no rough, over 130 acres of sand used to divide holes, and tricky green complexes. Located about 30 minutes from Savannah, Georgia, the course was modeled after the sandbelt courses of Australia.
f684b2f3d4218ee06dad551b3bb2074bThe club will host a PGA Tour event for the second time after being the venue for the Palmetto Championship in 2021 where South African Garrick Higgo won his first career Tour event. It will require an all-around tee-to-green skillset in firm and fast conditions that emphasizes total driving (distance and accuracy), long-iron play and “around the green” play from a variety of difficult lies to fast Bermuda greens.
This week’s CJ Cup has a staggeringly good field compared to the first few events of the fall swing season. 15 of the top 20 and six of the top 10 in the Official World Golf Ranking are playing this week. Top-ranked Scottie Scheffler headlines the list, followed by Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, Jon Rahm, Collin Morikawa and Matt Fitzpatrick. Numerous Presidents Cup competitors are in attendance including Max Homa, Jordan Spieth, Sungjae Im, Tom Kim, Hideki Matsuyama, and Sam Burns among others.
The only top-25 players not in attendance this week are Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay, Tony Finau and Will Zalatoris. Like last week’s ZOZO Championship, the CJ Cup is a no-cut event with a 78-player field with 60 of them qualifying from last season’s FedExCup standings.
Keys to Success
There are numerous statistical angles and other narratives to attack this week when building a betting card. From the data side, driving distance, long-iron approach play, scrambling around the greens, and past experience on long and difficult courses and in no-cut events are the main areas that I am looking for players to be strong.
The course is expansive and sweeping in nature. At 107.8 yards per par, it is the second-longest PGA course in the Tour rotation behind only Torrey Pines South. As one of the longest courses with the widest fairways (51 yards), Congaree had the highest driving distance average in 2021 at 302 yards. That is 16 yards higher than the average PGA Tour course of 286 yards.
Because there is no rough, as long as players are reasonably accurate off the tee they are free to blast away with driver. And because of the firm fairways, even shorter hitters can get an extra rollout off the tee. As Lucas Glover stated, “You could have a guy who’s short and straight, can chase it down the fairways and play smart golf. Then you could have a guy that can hit it over a bunch of the trouble and play it that way.” Some of the longer drivers of the ball that I am targeting this week include Rory McIlroy and Cameron Young.
In 2021, 47% of approach shots came from over 175 yards meaning long-iron play will be crucial this week. Thus, the value of Congaree is in the second shot. Because players have a large amount of leniency off the tee, their approach to the green is one way that golfers can separate themselves from the field. With an astoundingly long average proximity to the hole at over 43 feet, approaching these green complexes at Congaree is a challenge. No other course has ranked tougher in proximity over the past two years. A large reason for this is the undulation and speed near the pin positions. An approach to the wrong side of the green can easily produce a 3-putt. Sam Burns and Aaron Wise are two of the best long-iron players in the world and they feature heavily on my card this week.
According to the data and player quotes, scrambling around these green complexes is the greatest challenge at Congaree. In 2021, it ranked as the eighth most difficult course to gain strokes around the green. With no rough, players are faced with chips on short grass with tight lies. The numerous runoff areas surrounding the greens can have your ball rolling 40-50 yards away from the green complex. Many of these slopes lead to waste areas or water. Often times the best option is to putt from well off the green up the tightly-mown slopes. Matt Fitzpatrick is among the best “around the green” players in the world. I love his outright odds which still sit as high as +2500.
Finally, I looked at a combination of past splits on courses played in three different types of conditions – long courses, difficult courses, and strong-field no-cut events. Fitzpatrick, Wise and Burns all finished in the top-12 in this field when you combine those three areas together into one metric.
Ridgeland, SC Weather Forecast (October 20th-October 23rd)
Top 10 Most Important Stats
*In order of importance.
- SG: APP
- Scrambling
- Driving Distance
- Good Drive %
- Proximity (175+ yds)
- SG: ARG
- Bogeys Avoided
- SG: OTT
- SG: Putting (Bermuda)
- SG: Long/Difficult/Strong-Field Courses
The CJ Cup Final Model
In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of the individual splits will be posted on my Twitter feed, with the final model exclusively published here for subscribers.
Outright Betting Selections
*Lines accurate at the time of publication.
Matt Fitzpatrick +2500
Fitzpatrick has the all-around game with creativity that should play perfectly here at Congaree. The added gains in driving distance will also come in handy at this course. He has gained OTT in 13 of his last 14 events and also has a small edge as he played here in 2021 and finished 10th. He ranks 4th in the field in tough scoring conditions and 10th on long courses.
(0.96u) PointsBet
Sam Burns +3000 (currently +2800)
Burns is a great course fit this week as he brings power, precision and positive putting on Bermuda greens. While he hasn’t finished in the top-15 since June, he tends to thrive on these southern U.S. courses. He led the field OTT in his last event, the Sanderson Farms, and his ability to score in a “low-scoring” event should keep him in the thick of it throughout the weekend.
(0.80u) BetRivers
Max Homa +3300
Homa has jumped into the elite category on the PGA Tour. Now ranked 18th in the world, I believe his upward trajectory is only just beginning. He has added both distance and touch around the greens to his already impressive overall game. In 2022, he has played in 20 total events and has 15 top-25s! In those 20 events his worst metric is “Around the Green” where he still gained 0.7 strokes per event. In the other categories of ball-striking and putting, he has gained at least 1.3 strokes per round.
(0.72u) PointsBet
Cameron Young +3500
On a “bombers” course that encourages aggressive lines off the tee, Young is a perfect fit for Congaree. His game has no weaknesses as on average he has gained in every single one of the strokes gained metrics over his past 20 events. He has also proven that he can have success on difficult courses, finishing 2nd at The Open, 3rd in the PGA Championship at Southern Hills and 2nd at a very difficult TPC Potomac.
Aaron Wise +6600 (currently +4500)
Getting Wise at these odds is practically a steal. While he finished a disappointing 64th at the Shriners a couple of weeks ago, losing five strokes on approach, he boasts an excellent track record on other courses that are similar to Congaree. Between Kiawah Island and Quail Hollow he has four top-18 finishes. He also tends to rebound the week after losing strokes on approach. He ranks in the top-15 tee-to-green (T2G) on long courses and in strong fields. His elite long-iron play on these firm greens should help him gain separation on the field.
(0.36u) BetRivers
Other Outright Selections
Finishing Position Picks
Top 10
Top 20
- Matt Fitzpatrick -110 (2u) – FanDuel
- Cameron Young +110 (1.1u) – FanDuel
- Max Homa +130 (1u) – FanDuel
- Shane Lowry +138 (1u) – BetRivers
- Hideki Matsuyama +140 (1u) – DraftKings
- Aaron Wise +155 (1u) – FanDuel
Top 30
- Cameron Davis +110 (1.1u) – FanDuel
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Photo by Jose Manuel Alvarez/Quality Sport Images/Getty Images