Strategy
At this week’s no-cut event, the CJ Cup there is much more depth in the lower tier compared to last week’s ZOZO Championship. With every player guaranteed four rounds of action, one bad round from a couple of players in your lineup won’t kill you. With scoring in this event expected to be quite difficult, I do not think you want to get too cute at the bottom of the board. I will be heavily targeting players that are positive in Bogey Avoidance, Scrambling around the greens, and who have had past success on other difficult scoring courses. I also love taking some balanced builds and just stacking players who fit that bill such as Matt Fitzpatrick, Jordan Spieth and Shane Lowry.
f684b2f3d4218ee06dad551b3bb2074bThere are also three main narratives that I am playing when selecting golfers for both my player pool and for ownership percentage. The first is simply targeting players who are excellent tee-to-green and who have no real weaknesses in their game. Rory McIlroy and Max Homa are two names that immediately come to mind.
My second narrative is to fade players who have been “globetrotting” from Las Vegas at the Shriners, to Japan at the ZOZO, and who now are making their way back across the ocean to South Carolina for this week’s event. You can even take it back an event further for the likes of Sungjae Im and Tom Kim who also played the Presidents Club in North Carolina before going to Vegas. Though he has been hot, Emiliano Grillo is another player I want no part of this week.
Finally, I will be above the field in ownership on other Aussie and “International” players from Europe and South Africa. Remember, this is a sand-belt type course that Australians are very familiar with. Aussie Jason Day, who has gained in approach in five straight events, is one to watch this week. He has also apparently been practicing at Congraree for over a week now. Related to the “sand-belt” nature of the course, it also somewhat plays like a links-style course with it being so firm and fast and giving players the ability to use the ground game to advance the ball. This fits European players like Fitzpatrick and Lowry. Also, remember it was a South African, Garrick Higgo who won at this course in 2021 where three South Africans finished in the top-15.
Keys to Success
There are numerous statistical angles and other narratives to attack this week when building a betting card. From the data side, driving distance, long-iron approach play, scrambling around the greens, and past experience on long and difficult courses and in no-cut events are the main areas that I am looking for players to be strong.
The course is expansive and sweeping in nature. At 107.8 yards per par, it is the second-longest PGA course in the Tour rotation behind only Torrey Pines South. As one of the longest courses with the widest fairways (51 yards), Congaree had the highest driving distance average in 2021 at 302 yards. That is 16 yards higher than the average PGA Tour course of 286 yards.
Because there is no rough, as long as players are reasonably accurate off the tee they are free to blast away with driver. And because of the firm fairways, even shorter hitters can get an extra rollout off the tee. As Lucas Glover stated, “You could have a guy who’s short and straight, can chase it down the fairways and play smart golf. Then you could have a guy that can hit it over a bunch of the trouble and play it that way.” Some of the longer drivers of the ball that I am targeting this week include Rory McIlroy and Cameron Young.
In 2021, 47% of approach shots came from over 175 yards meaning long-iron play will be crucial this week. Thus, the value of Congaree is in the second shot. Because players have a large amount of leniency off the tee, their approach to the green is one way that golfers can separate themselves from the field. With an astoundingly long average proximity to the hole at over 43 feet, approaching these green complexes at Congaree is a challenge. No other course has ranked tougher in proximity over the past two years. A large reason for this is the undulation and speed near the pin positions. An approach to the wrong side of the green can easily produce a 3-putt. Sam Burns and Aaron Wise are two of the best long-iron players in the world and they feature heavily on my card this week.
According to the data and player quotes, scrambling around these green complexes is the greatest challenge at Congaree. In 2021, it ranked as the eighth most difficult course to gain strokes around the green. With no rough, players are faced with chips on short grass with tight lies. The numerous runoff areas surrounding the greens can have your ball rolling 40-50 yards away from the green complex. Many of these slopes lead to waste areas or water. Often times the best option is to putt from well off the green up the tightly-mown slopes. Matt Fitzpatrick is among the best “around the green” players in the world. I love his outright odds which still sit as high as +2500.
Finally, I looked at a combination of past splits on courses played in three different types of conditions – long courses, difficult courses, and strong-field no-cut events. Fitzpatrick, Wise and Burns all finished in the top-12 in this field when you combine those three areas together into one metric.
Ridgeland, SC Weather Forecast (October 20th-October 23rd)
Top 10 Most Important Stats
*In order of importance.
- SG: APP
- Scrambling
- Driving Distance
- Good Drive %
- Proximity (175+ yds)
- SG: ARG
- Bogeys Avoided
- SG: OTT
- SG: Putting (Bermuda)
- SG: Long/Difficult/Strong-Field Courses
The CJ Cup DraftKings Picks
Each week along with presenting my top choices for each of the categories below, I will include each of the pertinent stats for the specific event that comes directly from my model. Except for the “Core Plays,” which most weeks will typically be somewhat on the chalky side, I will include at least one player I am positive on who is forecast to be lower-owned and who will present a good pivot from some of the higher-owned options.
Core Plays
Upper-Tier Plays
Mid-Range Plays
Value Plays
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