In the midst of a star-studded field at the 150th Open Championship it was PGA Tour rookie Cameron Young who regained his stellar form from months past to shoot an 8-under 64 to take a 2-shot lead on day one. Young gained 3.8 strokes on approach on his way to hitting all 18 greens in regulation in a bogey-free round. Rory McIlroy finished the day as Young’s closest challenger with a near-perfect 6-under round. He gained strokes across the board in every area and is in great position to end his eight-year major drought. Cam Smith was brilliant with the flat stick gaining 3.9 strokes and sits tied for third at 5-under with Robert Dinwiddie.
With some rounds lasting for over six hours on Thursday, mostly due to how firm the conditions are, players could be in for another long round on Friday. The fairways and greens are rock hard with balls bounding through numerous greens and rolling over 350 yards with ease on fairways. Rain showers in the morning might soften the course a bit, but that remains to be seen. While WindFinder gives an edge to the early wave on Friday morning, other sites like AccuWeather, Windy.com and Weather.com actually have winds calmer in the afternoon. The morning wave had a 1.42 stroke advantage in round one. But for tomorrow, it appears to be anyone’s guess and might be safer to simply play the best plays for Showdown contests.
Weather Forecast – St. Andrews, Scotland
Round 2 Betting Matchups Model
*Strokes Gained Rating (SG RTG) is the key metric that combines all the weighted categories in the model.
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Round 2 Betting Selections
*Betting lines accurate at the time of publication.
Jordan Smith -125 (1.5u) over Justin Harding and David Duval – BetMGM
Louis Oosthuizen -110 (1.3u) over Harris English and Keita Nakajima – FanDuel
Ian Poulter +140 (1u) over Guido Migliozzi and Jamie Donaldson – BetMGM
Adri Arnaus +150 (1u) over Brad Kennedy and Ernie Els – BetMGM
Round 2 DraftKings DFS Showdown Selections
*Weather and tee time impacts not included in model. Tee Times can be found here.
Round 2 – morning showers might soften course a bit, if you are multi-entering I would be using lineups with 6/6 from both early and later waves…with the weather up in the air the guys I’m playing below are simply the best plays all-around…Ownership should be much higher earlier in the day since most people use WindFinder. Going higher with PM guys a great way to get different.
Core Plays
-McIlroy 10.5K – gained 2.23 ball-striking (BS), gained in every area, as hot as he’s been in years
-Oosthuizen 8.1K – gained 3.07 on approach, top-5 course history
-Wise 6.7K/Fox 7.3K – both playing very early when the rain may really soften the course…Wise gained 2.90 BS in round 1, Fox gained 1.50…both have good 2nd round SG data history
Upper-Tier Plays
-Schauffele 9.5K – gained 2.72 BS, missed a few easy putts, form is tremendous
-Spieth 9.4K – seven shots back entering tomorrow – knows he needs to go low, gained 1.73 on approach today, great wind player
-Smith 9.0K – price is too low, relies on the putter but can go on birdie streaks like nobody else
Mid-Range Plays
-Lowry 8.8K – gained 2.53 BS, lost 2.6 putting – knows he needs to attack flags to make the cut
-Cantlay 8.7K – anytime he is below 9K I will be all over him
-Fleetwood 8.3K – weather won’t affect him either way, gained in every SG category except putting which is one of his strengths
-Koepka 8.0K – gained 3.19 on approach, look for him to make a big move tomorrow if he can get some putts to fall
Value Plays
-Niemann 7.9K – goes off early, low ball flight in wind
-Im 7.8K – gained 1.87 BS
-Power 7.6K -gained 1.73 BS
-DeChambeau 7.5K – gained 3.14 BS, ultimate boom/bust again tomorrow
-Tringale 7.2K – another good round today, gained 1.86 BS
-Kitayama 7.1K – stayed hot today at 4-under, loves links
-J. Kim 6.7K – way underpriced again, gained 2.01 BS today, one of hottest players in the field
-Detry 6.7K – gained 2.76 BS
-S. Kim 6.6K – best value on the slate, tees off early, gained 2.1 on approach today
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Photo by Charlie Crowhurst/R&A/R&A via Getty Images