The moment we have all been waiting for is here! The John Deere Classic is this week as the top stars are headed to Illinois to battle it out. Okay, that was a joke but we can still make money on this event.
The John Deere Classic has been a staple on the PGA Tour since 1971. It has been home to breakout wins for future stars such as Jordan Spieth and Bryson Dechambeau. Ryder Cup captains like Steve Stricker and Zach Johnson have also shown repeated success at this venue over the years.
The JDC is held at TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Illinois. This course is a 7,268-yard par 71 with Bent grass greens. We have seen winning scores as high as -27 and the average winning score over the past 5 years is -21. Given its length, a lot of approach shots will be wedges and you are going to have to catch a hot putter.
The field is really poor. There is not one golfer ranked inside the top 40 in the world in this field. However, this does not mean that we cant find value and make a profit off this event.
Outright: Nick Hardy +4000 (DraftKings)
Betting a golfer outright that was literally 200/1 last week at under 50/1 is a tough pill to swallow but that is the circumstance that we are running into this week. This University of Illinois graduate should feel right at home this week.
Hardy is on a run of pretty stellar golf right now. In his last three starts, he has gone 35th at the Canadian Open, 14th at the U.S Open, and 8th place last week at the Travelers. That reads as someone who is definitely trending in the right direction right now.
Nick gained strokes in every major category last week, highlighted by his 3.9 strokes gained putting. A hot putter is certainly going to be a key to success this week. Hardy has also been dialed off the tee, gaining 4.4 strokes at the RBC and 2.5 last week. If we can get some positive regression with the approach play, there is nothing stopping Nick Hardy from winning the John Deere Classic in his home state.
Top 10: Chez Reavie +550
Now Chez might not have the pop and youthfulness of Nick Hardy but he does have the experience and recent form to find himself at the top of the leaderboard this week. Reavie finished top 10 last week at the Travelers which is another shorter TPC track. He was able to gain 3.7 strokes on ball striking and 4 strokes putting. That is again a recipe for success this week.
Looking back to last year, there was really nothing about Glover’s recent form that could have pointed to his win. However, he had stellar course history. Chez’s approach numbers at this event are great. He has gained strokes on approach in his last 5 starts here, gaining on average 3.4. This can lead him into the top 10 for this week.
I think +550 is a great number in this field for a top 20.
Top 20: Doug Ghim +250 (Ceasars)
I am going to back another Illinois native this week in the top 20 market this week. Doug Ghim might not have great recent form but he had his best approach week in the history of his career at this event last year. Last year Ghim gained 7.7 strokes on approach at the John Deere Classic. Ghim was able to find himself in the top 20 at this event last year with these strong approach numbers.
I am really banking on the fact that this course suits his ball striking and that the yardages he leaves himself sets him up for success. If the fact that he is an Illinois native gives him any advantage, I am willing to back him in the top 20 market.
Ghim has also shown to have upside in some of the biggest events of the years, as he has played stellar at the Players Championship, this event should be no problem for him.
Top 40: Austin Smotherman +185 (FanDuel)
I am willing to buy back on Smotherman after a rare missed cut last week. Off the heels of that missed cut at the Travelers, I think Austin bounces back in a big way this week.
Before last week, he was able to make his last six cuts on tour with three top 40 finishes. Given the strength of field this week, I think he possesses enough talent to make the cut and find himself in the top 40.
Austin is an up-and-coming rookie that ranks 2nd in this field in ball striking. This is due to his great play OTT and on approach, where he ranks 8th and 16th respectively. I think +185 is a great price for a top 40 this week.
Matchup: Adam Svensson over Nate Lashley -120
I am willing to eat a little bit of juice on this matchup. Svensson is really playing some great golf at the moment and I think it continues this week. Making his last 5 starts on tour, with two straight top 25 finishes, Adam is playing some great golf right now.
I was on him last week given the fact that he gained strokes in every single major category in his previous start. He backed it up with a great performance on approach and putting. He gained 4.4 strokes on approach and 2.3 putting. He has always been someone that has struggled with the putter but he has now gained strokes in 5 straight events.
I think his floor is much higher than Nate who has missed the cut in 2 of his last 4 starts.
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