I’m throwing on a green mesh hat, cracking open a few silver bullets, and turning on some Billy Ray Cyrus to prepare for this week’s John Deere Classic. It’s a track that’s seen a wide array of skill sets take home the title over the years, but fairways and birdies are always the main ingredients. Per Ron‘s course preview, TPC Deere Run is a course with wide fairways, receptive greens, and relatively simple putting surfaces. It is very scoreable for players who excel at managing their way strategically around the course instead of trying to overpower it. Winners have eclipsed the 18-under mark in each of the last 12 tournaments. Players should be ready to make birdies from their opening hole or prepare to trunk-slam their way out of Illinois by Friday evening.
My goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting this week. There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, so I’ll share my opinion on the best way to bet on each golfer in my player pool at this week’s event. When pricing out finishing position bets, I’ll often lean towards BetMGM even if there’s a better number elsewhere because of MGM’s advantageous dead-heat rules. Know the rules of the books that you’re betting on!
Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets. Betting markets are fluid, but I’ll note the best number available at the time of this writing.
*Betting lines accurate at the time of publication.
Noonan’s John Deere Classic Targets
Cam Davis
Cam Davis has played his best golf on either short tracks or at events where his streaky scoring runs are rewarded. TPC Deere Run is both. His lone career win came last year in Detroit at the Rocket Mortgage, an event that tickles -20 every year. Davis has also made six of his past seven cuts, including a T3 at Harbour Town and a T7 at Colonial, both relatively short courses that highlight skills outside of driving distance. Some of his other career top finishes have come at similar courses, like TPC Twin Cities, Waialae, and PGA West. He ranks ninth in this field in strokes gained ball-striking over his past 20 rounds played and third in birdie-or-better rate (BoB%), both key metrics for me this week. I believe he’s among the upper tier talent-wise in this less-than-stellar field.
- Win: 50/1 DraftKings
- Top 20: +190 BetMGM
Patrick Rodgers
If you didn’t love me at 200/1, you don’t deserve me at 35. I was on Rodgers in Canada at 200/1, and he delivered a T20 finish, backing it up with a strong showing the following week in Brookline at the U.S. Open. I bet him on Monday last week at the Travelers as well, but he withdrew before the event began. So naturally, I have to ride this out now, even though the price looks drastically different. He’s an elite driver of the golf ball and an exceptional putter as well. His recent spike has been due to improved iron play, where he’s gained strokes on approach in nine of his past 12 measured events. I have him among the top 20 in this field in Par 5 scoring, SG: OTT, Good Drive%, and BoB%. That recipe will find you in contention here on Sunday.
Nick Hardy
Nick Hardy nearly won the NV5 Invitational on the Korn Ferry Tour back in May and has carried that form into three consecutive strong showings on the PGA Tour, each one better than the next. Hardy’s impressive T14 at the U.S. Open was followed up with a T8 at last week’s Travelers, and he’s getting it done with small gains throughout the bag. He’s relying heavily on long and accurate tee shots and a hot putter, and while we know form is fickle, I’m hoping the University of Illinois alum keeps the train rolling back in his home state.
Scott Stallings
Scott Stallings has bookended missed cuts at Memorial and the U.S. Open with a T4 at the Charles Schwab and a T8 at last week’s Travelers. I’m going to give more weight to last week’s Travelers, not only because it’s the most recent event, but because I believe there’s a corollary angle with last week’s TPC River Highlands. Going low is required at Deere Run, as is exceptional short iron play, and Stallings lit TPC River Highlands on fire, posting 64-68-63 on his way to a T8 finish. He’s second in this field in SG: APP over the past 20 rounds, and he’s driving the ball significantly better than he was back in the spring, so I’m encouraged by how he’s trending.
FanDuel Finishing Position Parlay
Steve Stricker and Kevin Streelman (+300)
Let’s add Mr. John Deere Classic, Steve Stricker, fresh from a strong showing on the Champions Tour, and northern Illinois Stallworth Kevin Streelman to the card for this parlay. This is a relatively new entry to the space, thanks to our friends at FanDuel. Unlike most other books I’m familiar with, FanDuel allows you to parlay finishing position bets. Now, the very premise of the bet is flawed because the expected value is negative since players are competing for the same finishing positions. If the bet is two T40s like this one is, when one leg of your parlay finishes above the threshold, there’s now one less spot available in that range for the other leg(s) to also come in. I know the math is terrible. Spare me. But let’s be honest. Some bets are just fun, and these are fun for me.
I’m not sure how much win equity these two have, but in a weak field like this, I believe course history could come into play a bit, and these two have fared well around these parts for many years.
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Featured Image – Ross Kinnaird/Getty Images