After a scintillating U.S. Open with Matt Fitzpatrick winning his first major and first-ever PGA event, the Tour heads back to familiar territory for the Travelers Championship at TPC River Highlands. One of the most favored tournaments by players and caddies, the event attracts a strong field each year, and its huge crowds make it the second-most attended Tour event behind only the Waste Management Open.
TPC River Highlands is a classical par-70 Pete Dye design where shot-shaping is almost required and where players are encouraged to get creative and utilize every club in their bag. It is a tree-lined parkland course with lush wide fairways and plenty of subtle changes in direction. The average winning score over the past 12 events has been 15-under par and has favored players who get hot with their putter and have a sharp short iron and wedge game.
Thanks to its tremendous finishing stretch of holes, it also almost always seems to deliver a climactic ending. 14 of the last 18 events have been decided by one shot or less with five of the past 11 finishing in a playoff. Many fans can still remember last year’s marathon Sunday that saw Harris English outlasting Kramer Hickok after eight playoff holes.
The Field
Plenty of stars show up to play this event on an annual basis, and this year is no different. Six of the world’s top 10 are scheduled to tee it up in Connecticut, led by top-ranked Scottie Scheffler. Joining him is a strong group of favorites including Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy, Patrick Cantlay, Sam Burns, Will Zalatoris, and Xander Schauffele. Finally healthy after missing a couple of months with an injury, Harris English returns to defend his title. After a higher cut-line last week at the U.S. Open, it returns to the usual top-65 and ties this week.
Keys to Success
With such a variety of playing styles represented in past champions at TPC River Highlands, handicapping this tournament is always a challenge. Not only do we see all types of players near the top of the leaderboard in years past, but it is also the fourth-shortest course on Tour. These facts allow almost every single player in the field who can find a hot putter to have a fighting chance. A variety of splits were built into the model this week to try to identify the players with the highest chance for success, both in upside and in making the cut. First, a group of comp courses was used that is similar to TPC River Highlands in course length, easy fairway accuracy %, and overall scoring and birdie %.
f684b2f3d4218ee06dad551b3bb2074bOff the tee (OTT) weighs in as more important this week than the average Tour course. The penalty for missing fairways is very high. Players who can add distance to accuracy will have nothing but wedges into greens that are known for having tricky pin positions. One of the main splits in the OTT model for the week is past SG: OTT performance on the other “Less Than Driver” courses that are also short in length. While some players will choose a bomb and gauge approach and gain strokes off the tee that way, others will gain strokes by staying out of the rough and choosing to position themselves by clubbing down.
While many are focusing on longshots this week, I am targeting players somewhat higher on the board. The average odds of the past seven winners was only +3400. Part of the reason for that is the overall strength of the field here is typically higher than average. With any skill set being able to succeed though it is still somewhat surprising. This event does have the 7th strongest predictive value in course history and that will be one of the main sticking points for me this week. When analyzing the top of the board, Cantlay’s sparkling history at TPC River Highlands separates him from the other stud golfers in the upper tier and is my reason for taking him at +1600.
A few other stats that had higher weights this week are proximity from 125-175 yards and par-4 scoring from 400-450 yards. On such a short course players will have short irons and wedges in their hands a majority of the time on approach. Players who have a high birdie or better rate from that range should be targeted. Some of these players include Scottie Scheffler, Joaquin Niemann, Denny McCarthy, Xander Schauffele, Keegan Bradley, and Seamus Power. With 10 holes under 445 yards, players that are strong in that range of par-4 holes should have an advantage. Scheffler, Niemann, Power, Justin Thomas, Mito Pereira and Brian Harman rate well on those.
Finally, with so many low individual scores posted over the years, players who can put themselves in position on approach to make birdie putts can separate themselves from the field. Scoring opportunities from 15 feet and less are weighted high in the Scoring model this week. Overall, players who can generate these opportunities, have great course history, and who are in form with their ball-striking will have the best chance to rise up the leaderboard.
Cromwell, CT Weather Forecast (June 23-June 26)
Top 10 Most Important Stats
*In order of importance.
- SG: APP
- SG: OTT
- Proximity 125-175
- Par 4: 400-450
- Birdie or Better %
- Opportunities Gained
- SG: P (Poa/Bent)
- SG: ARG
- Fairways Gained
- Bogey Avoidance
Travelers Championship Final Model
In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of the individual splits will be posted on my Twitter feed, with the final model exclusively published here for subscribers.
Outright Betting Selections
*Lines accurate at the time of publication.
Patrick Cantlay +1600
Cantlay finished in 5th position in the final model this week, but it’s his course history here at TPC River Highlands that pushed him over the top. He has four top-15s here and has gained over five strokes ball-striking in three of those four starts. Looking back long-term, he leads the field in total strokes gained per round over the last 18 months. He has a great history on both Pete Dye tracks and on shorter par-70 type courses. He also ranks high in my putting splits this week on these poa/bent surfaces.
(1.25u) PointsBet
Joaquin Niemann +3500
Niemann is a player who thrives off the tee on these types of layouts where SG: OTT is important. He’s 6th overall in the model and is the 4th best player tee to green in the field over the past six months. He also excels in the two key yardage ranges ranking 4th from 400-450 yards and 5th in BoB% from 125-150 yards. Though he struggled at the U.S. Open, he still gained 5.2 strokes in ball-striking. He also checks the course history box with plenty of successful starts here including a 5th place finish back in 2019.
Keegan Bradley +4100 (currently +3600)
When looking at recent form combined with long-term tee-to-green performance, Bradley is a clear threat to gain his first Tour win since 2018. He loves playing on New England courses and has two T8s here over the past five years. He led the field in SG: Approach at Brookline and has gained putting in three of his last four.
(0.49u) FanDuel
Davis Riley +5000 (currently +4000)
Riley continues one of the most impressive stretches of performance by a rookie in recent memory. He has six consecutive top-31 finishes which include five in the top-13. He has been one of the best players in SG: Approach gaining over three strokes in each of his last five starts and gained 6.7 at last week’s U.S. Open. TPC River Highlands sets up perfectly for his ball-striking skills.
Seamus Power +5500 (currently +5000)
Another “short course” specialist, Power excels in the 125-175 yard approach range as well as on par-4s from 400-450 yards. He has made three cuts in a row here at the Travelers including a 19th place finish last year. His game has been trending up again over the past three months as he has gained strokes in six of his last seven events. With his approach game being his main weakness, he has been sharp of late gaining ten strokes in that area over his past three starts.
(0.36u) BetRivers
More Outright Selections
- Aaron Wise +5500 (currently +5000), 0.36u BetRivers
- Mito Pereira +5500 (currently +5000), 0.36u FanDuel
- Webb Simpson +8000 (currently +6000), 0.25u DraftKings
- Cameron Tringale +12500 (currently +10000), 0.16u BetRivers
Finishing Position Picks
Top 20
- Patrick Cantlay -110 (2u) FanDuel
- Sam Burns +100 (1.2u) FanDuel
- Xander Schauffele +115 (1.2u) PointsBet
- Jordan Spieth +125 (1u) FanDuel
Top 30 all FanDuel
- Keegan Bradley -120 (1.5u)
- Sungjae Im -115 (1.3u)
- Joaquin Niemann -110 (1.3u)
- Davis Riley +110 (1.1u)
- Mito Pereira +130 (1u)
- Aaron Wise +135 (1u)
- Seamus Power +140 (1u)
Top 40 all FanDuel
- Tommy Fleetwood -110 (1.5u)
- Webb Simpson +100 (1.3u)
- Marc Leishman +105 (1.3u)
- Denny McCarthy +115 (1.1u)
- Joel Dahmen +120 (1u)
- Cameron Tringale +135 (1u)
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Photo by Warren Little/Getty Images