It’s not uncommon for us to see a less-than-stellar field the week after a major, but that’s not the case this week. Six of the world’s top-10 ranked players are making the short trip from Brookline to Cromwell, Connecticut, for this week’s Travelers Championship at TPC River Highlands.
The last Pete Dye-designed track of the 2022 season, TPC River Highlands is the second-shortest course on Tour this season and features tree-lined fairways and small greens, emphasizing accuracy, both off the tee and on approach. Unfortunately, early forecasts show that rain could be a factor all week, adding another wrinkle to this year’s event. However, premier ball-striking mixed with a hot putter can turn this into a birdie fest, and a quick glance at past leaderboards proves that any style can win at The Travelers. As usual, check out Ron‘s course preview for more details.
My goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting this week. There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, so I’ll share my opinion on the best way to bet on each golfer in my player pool at this week’s event. When pricing out finishing position bets, I’ll often lean towards BetMGM even if there’s a better number elsewhere because of MGM’s advantageous dead-heat rules. Know the rules of the books that you’re betting on!
Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets. Betting markets are fluid, but I’ll note the best number available at the time of this writing.
*Betting lines accurate at the time of publication.
f684b2f3d4218ee06dad551b3bb2074bNoonan’s Travelers Championship Targets
Aaron Wise
It’s coming, folks. After a solo second at the Memorial, Aaron Wise was in the mix all week at the U.S. Open. The putter is finally showing positive gains and matching the ball-striking prowess that’s had me on him for nine straight months. Over the past three months, he ranks 11th in this field in both strokes gained approach (SG: APP) and tee-to-green (SG: T2G). It’s an arbitrary endpoint, but in this field, only Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, Tony Finau, and Aaron Wise rank inside the top 40 in each strokes-gained category over the past 3 months. I’m surprised we can still bet him at this big of a number, but he tailed off on Sunday in Brookline, and this field is strong. He’s a terrific look in the finishing position market.
- Win: 50/1 DraftKings
- Top 30: +138 BetRivers
Marc Leishman
Reading post-event comments from Marc Leishman has me encouraged about his form heading into the Travelers, an event he’s won before and finished T3 at last season. His putter is white-hot right now, and while we know that’s fickle, Leishman has made a career on riding a hot putter for stretches at a time. He gained 4.47 strokes on approach last week on his way to a T14 finish at the U.S. Open, and I’m looking for that to carry over this week at a course he loves. Married with his on and around the green game, the Big Aussie should have a great week in Connecticut.
Keegan Bradley
No one gained more strokes on approach last week than Keegan Bradley’s 10.91. Let’s ride that wave while he’s in New England and arguably playing the best golf of his career. Keegs has gained strokes on approach in 10 of 11 measured rounds this season. That’s always his calling card, but the rest of his game is also dialed in right now. He’s eighth in the field in ball-striking over the past three months, climbing up the Tour’s total driving rankings weekly. He has five top-10 finishes this season and a strong track record on Pete Dye layouts, including a solo fifth at this year’s PLAYERS and a T4 at the Zurich. Unfortunately, this market collapsed quickly on Monday morning, so if you missed the outright number, consider him for a finishing position play instead.
Davis Riley
Davis Riley’s run of six consecutive T13 or better finishes ended last week with his T31 in Brookline, but his Sunday 74 did nothing except help us get a better number on him this week. He’s 14th in this field in total strokes gained per round over the past three months and just missed my arbitrary cutoff point in the Aaron Wise blurb due to his 55th rank in strokes gained around the green (SG: ARG). Davis has the pedigree and form that I want to buy into long-term. He doesn’t have an extensive backlog at Pete Dye courses, but he did finish T4 in Louisana back in April. Look for another strong showing from him this week.
FanDuel Finishing Position Parlay
Brian Harman and Mito Pereria T40 (+170)
Adding two more of this week’s outright selections here. This is a relatively new entry to the space, thanks to our friends at FanDuel. Unlike most other books I’m familiar with, FanDuel allows you to parlay finishing position bets. Now, the very premise of the bet is flawed because the expected value is negative since players are competing for the same finishing positions. If the bet is two T40s like this one is, when one leg of your parlay finishes above the threshold, there’s now one less spot available in that range for the other leg(s) to also come in. I know the math is terrible. Spare me. But let’s be honest. Some bets are just fun, and these are fun for me.
I bet on both Harman and Mito to win and top 30 this week, and I like mixing and matching my outright selections into these T40 parlays each week.
Featured Image – Sam Greenwood, Getty Images