Over 150 of the world’s best golfers will descend upon The Country Club in Brookline for the 122nd rendition of the United States Open golf tournament. Located in the heart of New England in the Boston, Massachusetts suburb of Brookline, The Country Club is a rolling and rugged course full of all sorts of captivating native features. It is unconventional golf displayed in an almost magical setting. For more than a century it has hosted some of golf’s most distinguished events, yet its classical and natural design remains unchanged by the advances of the modern game. One of the “founding fathers” of American golf, the U.S. Open finally returns to this historic property since it last appeared in 1988.
On grounds that feel almost prehistoric, The Country Club is a layout that is as memorable as it is challenging. From blind shots and jagged rock outcroppings to saucer-like microscopic greens and uneven lies that produce unpredictable and random shots it truly is a unique course. Shot-making, patience, and creativity are all traits that are mandatory for success this week.
Even with rising anticipation for this event, and coming off an excellent tournament in Toronto at the RBC Canadian Open, much of the chatter this week will remain about the group of players who have been suspended from the PGA Tour for joining the rival Saudi-backed LIV golf tour. It will be an interesting dynamic this week as those who have defected will join those who have stayed loyal to the Tour thus far. And with Phil Mickelson’s press conference kicking things off on Monday morning, we won’t have to wait long for the drama to get started.
The Field
All of the top players in the world are in attendance this week. Scottie Scheffler will attempt to become the sixth golfer in history to win both the Masters and the U.S. Open in the same season. Coming off a third-place finish in Canada, Justin Thomas looks to win back-to-back majors after capturing the PGA Championship in May. And Jon Rahm, who has had his struggles this season, returns to defend his title from a year ago won at Torrey Pines.
The most notable absence is Tiger Woods who has chosen to rest his still-healing body in preparation for the year’s final major at The Open in Scotland next month. Former U.S. Open champions, young and old, will be teeing it up this week in Brookline as the field includes numerous players who receive qualifying exemptions for a host of different reasons.
The field is also filled out by qualifiers who earned their way into the tournament via a process played out at courses around the country and abroad. From qualifiers fresh out of high school to 57-year-old Korn Ferry journeyman, Fran Quinn – it truly is the “People’s Tournament”. The 156 registered players will be pared down to the top-60 and ties after Friday’s round.
Keys to Success
The U.S. Open is an event that, for the most part, consistently plays the same way year after year. It is typically set up as a tough driving course where distance (especially) and accuracy matter. The rough is very thick and penal and the greens are fast, sloping, and repel aggressive approach shots. Thus you have to be really targeted this week with your outright and finishing bets. The U.S. Open tends to find the best players. And The Country Club in Brookline is definitely not a course where you can fake it and get lucky. The last 12 winners had an odds average of +3000. All ten of the last winners were ranked in the top 30 in the world. This was one of my requirements when selecting outrights for this week.
Another angle I am attacking this week is the uniqueness of this course. The Country Club will make you uncomfortable. As some who have played the course have noted, at times it feels like playing golf on the moon. Between the rock outcroppings and the sharp embankments, the rugged shifts of land, and the thick fescue, its quirkiness will test players’ mental fortitude.
As renovation specialist, Gil Hanse noted, “It’s going to be an interesting mental test because many of these guys are going to see holes they’ve never seen in their lives. They’re going to have to play some shots that aren’t going to register on their fairness meter.” Good drives will result in bad bounces into the rough due to the sloping and canted terrain of the fairways. Those who don’t like blind shots will be out of their comfort zone as there are numerous instances of this throughout the round. Precision, creativity, and a strategic mind appear to be very necessary to navigate all 18 holes.
Another of the keys to winning is simply hitting fairways and avoiding the dense rough so that approach shots can be better controlled into these microscopic and undulated greens. Eight of the last ten winners were in the top 15 for driving distance for the week while also being in the top 30 in driving accuracy. The key metric that covers both of those is total driving which will be heavily weighted in my model this week. Jon Rahm, Corey Conners, and Matt Fitzpatrick are in a tier of their own and lead the field by a wide margin in this stat.
Two other stats that are also good to heavily weight this week are par-4 scoring from 450+ yards and bogey avoidance. Seven holes will play over 450 yards which will place a premium on long iron approaches. And with the course predicted to play tough and to limit scoring chances, the ability to save par and get out of trouble will be crucial.
Players who have performed well in majors and in difficult scoring conditions should also be targeted. This includes positive results from past U.S. Open events as each of the last ten winners had a previous top-25 result at a previous U.S. Open. Golfers like Shane Lowry and Matt Fitzpatrick meet these criteria and are excellent top-20 bets this week.
Brookline, MA Weather Forecast (June 16-June 19)
Top 10 Most Important Stats
*In order of importance.
- SG: APP
- Total Driving
- Scrambling
- Bogey Avoidance
- GIR%
- Good Drive %
- Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 yards
- SG: Putting 5-15 ft
- SG: ARG
- SG: Majors/Difficult Scoring
U.S. Open Tournament Final Model
In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of the individual splits will be posted on my Twitter feed, with the final model exclusively published here for subscribers.
Outright Betting Selections
*Lines accurate at the time of publication.
Jon Rahm +1600
Even though the course is different, the defending U.S. Open champion has the skillset to shine at The Country Club this week. Over his last 36 rounds, he still leads the world in gaining strokes off the tee and leads the field in GIR%. His struggles over the past couple of months were centered around his short game. When he won the Mexico Open he gained 5.6 in that area. In his last event at the Memorial, he gained 7.5 around the green and putting. With one of the earliest tee times on Thursday, and on the good side of a possible weather draw, his +1600 odds have great value.
(1.25u) BetRivers
Patrick Cantlay +2500
While Cantlay has had his struggles in recent majors, he should be an excellent course fit here at The Country Club. He has no real weakness in his game, grading out in the top-30 in each of the strokes gained categories. He ranks 6th in long-term form and 6th in the hole breakdown model. His touch and creativity around the greens and his ability to grind out pars should keep him in the hunt through the weekend.
(0.80u) Caesars
Collin Morikawa +3200
Morikawa has a tremendous major record in his young career that includes two wins along with a 5th place finish at the last Masters and a 4th at the last U.S. Open. With everyone pointing out his short-game woes, his ball-striking ability alone could propel him forward to the winner’s circle. He is 15th off the tee and 4th best on approach in this field.
(0.63u) FanDuel
Jordan Spieth +3500 (currently +2800)
On a quirky course that demands imagination, creativity, and bogey avoidance there is no player that personifies those skills better than Jordan Spieth. His ball-striking has been a revelation gaining at least 4 strokes in five of his last six starts. Surprisingly, putting has been his main weakness over the past few months. But he gained five strokes on Muirfield’s fast greens in his last start and ranks 11th in the field in the crucial 5-15 feet range in his last 100 rounds.
Max Homa +6600 (currently +5000)
Homa has been consistently amazing every single week that he tees it up. While his major record isn’t the best he has performed really well on difficult courses with wins at Quail Hollow, Riviera, and TPC Potomac. He has turned into an elite ball-striker ranking 19th off the tee and 17th in approach.
(0.30u) PointsBet
More Outright Selections
- Cameron Young +6500 (currently +5000), 0.30u DraftKings
- Sungjae Im +6600 (currently +4000), 0.25u DraftKings
Finishing Position Picks
Top 10
- Jon Rahm +165 (1u) Caesars
- Justin Thomas +140 (1u) DraftKings
- Rory McIlroy +140 (1u) DraftKings
Top 20
- Xander Schauffele +100 (1.5u) Caesars
- Jordan Spieth +120 (1u) DraftKings
- Collin Morikawa +130 (1u) DraftKings
- Matt Fitzpatrick +130 (1u) DraftKings
- Will Zalatoris +130 (1u) DraftKings
- Shane Lowry +140 (1u) DraftKings
Top 40
- Corey Conners -120 (2u) FanDuel
- Louis Oosthuizen -110 (1.5u) PointsBet
- Aaron Wise +100 (1u) DraftKings
- Webb Simpson +110 (1u) DraftKings
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Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images