Betting Preview – 2022 Mexico Open

The PGA Tour returns to stroke play action south of the border for the fully sanctioned Mexico Open. Located a few miles off the Pacific coast near the town of Puerto Vallarta, the Vidanta Vallarta Resort (one of the highest-rated hotels in Mexico) and its “Signature Course” designed by Greg Norman, will host this event for the next three years.

Dating back to 1944, the Mexico Open has quite a historic past and has been considered Mexico’s national championship. With the PGA Tour pulling out of certain World Golf Championship (WGC) events such as the one at Club de Golf Chapultepec in Naucalpan, Mexico, this tournament will be an official FedExCup event with a purse of $7.3 million and 500 points to the winner.

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Overall, the strength of this field is quite weak. With it being an international event along with an unknown course and a long plane ride to next week’s esteemed Wells Fargo Championship, it is easy to see why few top-ranked players would choose to make the trip. Headlining the 144-player field is the world’s third-ranked player, Jon Rahm. Other golfers ranked in the top-50 that are scheduled to attend include Tony Finau, Kevin Na, Abraham Ancer, Patrick Reed, Gary Woodland, and Cameron Tringale.

Two Mexican natives to keep an eye on this week are Ancer and Carlos Ortiz. Along with past successes in their native land, they should be very motivated to play in front of their home fans this week. Ortiz has three top-16 finishes on Mexican soil, while Ancer has three top-18s.

Player Selection

The Mexico Open is an interesting event with a new course and a weak field. It’s the type of week you either love or hate. Usually, this is an event where if you know the lower-end players well and do your research, there are edges to be gained. Every week is an opportunity and I think you have to view it that way. Player odds are definitely hard to wrap your head around but that is how it is at weak-field events. Not having anyone with course history really levels the playing field as there is no advantage for having played the course in the past.

I am basing many of my bets on how well players rate in my “Core 4” sub-model for the week. This ranking narrows the tournament down to the four most important metrics for the week. For the Mexico Open, this includes Driving Distance and SG: Approach, with a focus on shots coming from 175-plus yards. With fairways so easy to hit, most players will have similar second shots. So the question becomes “Who can separate themselves by hitting precise approaches to the flagstick?”

A third sub-model I will use is the player rankings on “Comp Courses” which are other courses very similar to Vidante Vallarta. Some of these include Grand Reserve, Corales, TPC San Antonio, Congaree, and Concession. Finally, with scores expect to exceed the 20-under par range and putting being easier this week, Scoring Opportunities Gained within 15 feet is another stat that really matters this week. It makes a lot of sense to target players who give themselves the best chance to sink putts.

Nuevo Vallarta, Mexico – Weather Forecast (April 28-May 1)

Early forecasts appear to show very light winds throughout each of the four days of the tournament. Whether winds will increase each day in the late morning and into the early afternoon as has been reported remains to be seen. One thing we do know for sure is that the afternoons on the weekend will be brutally hot with highs reaching into the 90s.

Top 10 Most Important Stats

*In order of importance.

  • SG: APP
  • Driving Distance
  • SG: Comp Courses
  • Birdie Chances inside 15 feet
  • SG: T2G
  • Par 5 Scoring
  • Made Cut %
  • Birdie or Better %
  • SG: Putting
  • Proximity 175-plus yards

Mexico Open Final Model

In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of the individual splits will be posted on my Twitter feed, with the final model exclusively published here for subscribers.

Outright Betting Selections

*Lines accurate at the time of publication.

Gary Woodland +3000 (currently +2200)

He finished 2nd overall in my model and checks all the boxes this week. Has three top-8s in the last two months. He is back to being fully healthy again which is evidenced by his PGA Tour rank of 14th for Driving Distance. He also rates as the best player for SG: Approach for the week.

(0.67u) BetRivers

Tony Finau +3000 (currently +2200)

The honest truth is that this is a perfect course fit for Finau. He has the distance off the tee, and at the same time, his weakness of spraying the ball is mitigated here due to the wide fairways. He ranks in the top-5 in the field in SG: Approach. Though his short game has been his downfall recently, his long-term form around the greens is very solid and that is neutralized here anyways. He also won one of his titles on Paspalum grass when he won at Puerto Rico a couple of years ago.

(0.67u) DraftKings

Cameron Tringale +3700

With so many first-time winners recently on Tour, Tringale will look to add himself to that list this week. He is a very consistent player in each of the Strokes Gained categories and is one of the higher-class players in this field. He ranks 6th in my Approach model and is 13th Tee-to-Green (T2G) over the past six months.

(0.40u) FanDuel

Aaron Wise +4000 (currently +3200)

Wise is a prime breakout candidate this week and finished 4th overall in the model. He has been trending upward for a while. He’s 8th in the field T2G, ranks 6th in the “Core 4”, is 3rd OTT, and has the distance for this course. He also plays very well on coastal courses. With putting being his main weakness he has actually gained with the flat stick in seven of his last 11 events.

(0.50u) DraftKings

More Outright Betting Selections

Finishing Position Picks

Top 20

Top 30

  • Cameron Tringale -115, (1.3u) FanDuel
  • Aaron Wise -105, (1.2u) FanDuel
  • Sebastian Munoz -105, (1.3u) FanDuel
  • Chris Kirk +100, (1.2u) FanDuel
  • Charles Howell III +125, (1.2u) FanDuel
  • Matt Jones +135, (1u) FanDuel

Top 40

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Featured Image Credit: Stacy Revere – Getty Images