It is an odd week on the PGA Tour as we head to the Mexico Open. We are faced with the challenge of a course we have never seen before and a pretty lack luster field. Although this may not be the best event on tour I am positive that we can continue to find winners.
In this article, I have written the runner-up finisher as our favorite outright the past two weeks and the placements have continued to do well. I believe that we will cash an outright winner this week.
This week we are at Vidanta Nuevo Vallarta golf course. This is a 7,456-yard, Par 71 course with Paspalum greens. For a Par 71, this course is certainly longer than a lot of PGA tour courses. At the same time it is a resort course. Pure length is not going to stop the best golfers in the world from making loads of birdies.
This course features wide fairways and large greens. Paspalum grass is featured throughout and should play pretty easy for the best golfers in the world.
I think on a week like this it is important to keep the exposure the same. Although there are uncertainties about the course and field I still believe that winners can be found.
I am looking for golfers that are long off the tee, can score on Par 5s, have experience on Paspalum, and are good with their long irons.
Outright Bet: Gary Woodland +2200 (BetMGM)
The 2019 U.S Open Winner is having quite the resurgence of a season this year. Woodland has three top-eight finishes in his last six starts on tour. Gary has been trending with his irons and has gained on approach in his last five starts on tour. He gained 6.1 strokes on approach in his last recorded start at the Valero.
I have talked about how distance is going to be a virtue this week. Woodland ranks 10th in driving distance and 13th in proximity from 200-plus over the past 50 rounds in this field. Gary is really due for a win as he has not won since his U.S Open victory in 2019. I am hoping these slow Paspalum greens can help his putting, which has held him back at points in his career.
Gary will get back into the winner’s circle again this week after a consistently strong start to the 2022 season.
Top 10: Cameron Champ +460 (PointsBet)
This boom-or-bust golfer possesses massive upside this week. Cam Champ has three PGA Tour victories since 2018. That is more than Jordan Spieth, Tony Finau, Louis Oosthuizen, and Joaquim Nieman. We see each and every week how hard it is to win on the PGA Tour and Champ has proven he knows how to win.
Champ also cracked the top 10 at The Masters with his ball-striking seemed to have come back; he gained 1.5 strokes from tee-to-green. It has been pointed out by many people that Champ seems to have up-and-down weeks going from missed cuts, to a top 20 finish, then win on tour. It has happened in three separate instances.
I believe that Champ has the upside to finish top 10 this week.
Top 20: Wyndham Clark +550 (Caesars)
After betting Clark and Tringale last week at the Zurich, I was really impressed with Wyndham and think he is a great top 20 play this week. Coming off a 10th place finish and now four straight made cuts, I think it is finally time for Wyndham to breakthrough.
Clark finished 22nd at Corales Punta Cana just a month ago, which is another coastal, resort-style course that features Paspalum fairways and greens. Clark also ranks 5th in driving distance and 15th in putting over the past 50 rounds which plays into taking advantage of longer distances at this course.
He also has top 10 finishes at the 3M Open, Bermuda Championship, and Puerto Rico Open. These courses all have similar characteristics and seem to favor long hitters.
I will also point out that this +550 number Ceasars is well above market value and is a great price on an eventual winner.
Top 40: Vincent Whaley +155 (FanDuel)
The top 40 market is where I look for golfers I know can consistently make a cut and pop in my model. Vincent Whaley certainly fits that build this week. Over the past 50 rounds, Whaley ranks 6th in birdies or better gained, 10th in Par 5 Scoring and 11th in SG:P. These are some really good stats for a golfer this far down the betting board.
He also holds some great results are decent comp courses this week as he has finished 9th and 15th at Puerto Rico open over the past two years. Interestingly enough he has finished 28th three separate times at Corales Punta Cana. +155 for a top 40 is great value and one of my favorite bets on the board.
Matchup: Tony Finau over Abraham Ancer -120 (DraftKings)
Any time someone has injury and tournament withdrawal concerns, I am going to look to target fading them in a matchup. Ancer withdrew from the Valero Texas Open, missed the cut at The Masters, and we haven’t seen him since.
Ancer also has the added pressure of being in his home country and given the fact that he has never played the course before, I don’t see him having a great week. Tony Finau on the other hand is much longer off the tee, has a win on Paspalum greens, and is rounding into form. This bet at -120 is a great value play.
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