You can’t win your pool this week, you certainly can’t lose it, but it’s awfully nice to start with a decent chunk of money won here in Hawaii. This is a smaller purse ($9.1 million, $1.638 million to the winner), but still a nice feather in your cap and a nice way to start if you can find the top prize.
Every one and done is different. Hell, some don’t even start until after football is over, but for the purposes of this article, we will use the rules of the Mayo Cup. No double-stamps, no bonuses for majors, no picking alt-field events. Just every event from here until the BMW in August.
This isn’t the strongest field, but there are some bigger names. As always, I’d suggest you take a look at the rules for your particular pool, count how many golfers you’ll need to use this year, then make a list of how you’d rank the top golfers, making a list about twice as big as the number you’ll need. I tend to divide my list into three parts: Guys I’ve saved for the big pots, guys that I’m clearly using, but may be used in a smaller money event, and like 30-40 more names that should be in consideration. This week should be names mostly from the second group.
Let’s dig in, using the Rabbit Hole database:
Cutmakers
Per the norm, sorted out guys who had fewer than 12 starts in the past 18 months and then sorted by cut made percentage. Plenty of the top names here, as it should be. Six of the ten men listed have a win over that time frame as well (funny that one of the major winners in the group isn’t in that category). Notable are Russell Henley‘s favorite, top 5, and top 10 percentages.
Driving Accuracy
With the less-than-forgiving landing areas and reports that the rough is up to 4″ this year, finding the fairway is going to be important as ever. Again, 18 months with small samples sorted out via the Rabbit Hole, sorted by driving accuracy numbers. My guy Michael Brennan doesn’t have a huge sample, but looks dangerous as hell if he can keep finding the fairway at that clip while driving the ball 310 in the air.
Approach Prowess
Good ball strikers/irons players win everywhere, but this is definitely a second-shot course where scoring will depend on the approach more than the average tour stop. A couple of fun names mixed among the betting favorites on this one.
Bermuda Putting
Finally, this is not one to base your whole decision off of (putting never is), but it’s nice to see who’s been hot with the flatstick and who has done it well on Bermuda. Naturally, Denny leads the way.
Sony Open One and Done Suggestions
So, who’s the pick then? I think Henley is extremely interesting, but for my money, he’s falling into the group of golfers that I’d like to use at an event with a bigger purse, and he’s clearly approaching top 10 status. That said, I’m not going too far down the board chasing a dream. Longshots are for betting; nice safe golfers that are going to be on the first page of the leaderboard Sunday is what I’m after. Not overthinking it this early in the year.
Shortlist for the Sony Open: