The long national nightmare is over! The 2026 PGA Tour season is finally upon us. While we all missed having the beauty of Kapulua on our screens last week, we’re still in Hawaii, for now, to start the season.
Handicapping early-season events when we have less relevant form data than we do in the spring and summer is a bit more of a feel thing than I’d like. I prefer to lean on as much recent form data as possible, but we’re all in the same boat, so let’s work with what we have. I’ve had a Sunday sweat here for five consecutive seasons, getting Si Woo Kim over the finish line in 2023 while backing the bridesmaid in 2021 (Joaquin Niemann), 2022 (Russell Henley), and Keegan Bradley in both 2024 and 2025.
Without the Sentry, we lose the fairly actionable trend of the Sony Open winner teeing it up the week prior in nearly every instance over the past 15 years or so, but we still have some of the stickiest course history on Tour.
Nestled near Honolulu, the Waialae Country Club is a par 70 measuring just 7,044 yards. While the ocean views are stunning, many holes are tucked inland, minimizing the impact of the trade winds off the Pacific. The early forecast calls for windy conditions all week, so we’ll have to monitor them closely as the week goes on.
This tight, technical track favors accuracy over brute force. The fairways at Waialae are narrow, but hitting them here isn’t the skeleton key it once was. Having the ideal angle for your second shot is paramount, even more so than finding the fairway off the tee. We see about 83% of all approach shots come from inside of 200 yards, with the overwhelming plurality in the 150-175 range. The greens at Waialae are fairly average in size and relatively flat, which can lead to a ton of birdies when golfers are well-positioned off the tee.
For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Also, don’t forget to check out the research tools on the site, including the Waialae Country Club Course Stats, along with the Tournament Cheat Sheet. The Course Stats page is the best place to start your research each week this season.
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Key Rabbit Hole Stats This Week:
-Average SG: Total at Waialae CC, Last 5 Years
-SG: Total, Short, and Very Short Courses
-SG: APP + Proximity from 150-175 Yards
-SG: Short Game, Bermuda
-SG: Correlary Courses (Sedgefield, Colonial, Harbour Town, and Sea Island Seaside)
-Par-4 Scoring Average
There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, and my goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting in the outright market this week. Remember to check out the Rabbit Hole, our customizable stat database that can help you pare down your player pool each week.
Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice. If you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets.
*Betting lines are accurate at the time of publication in Discord.
Noonan’s Sony Open Outright Targets
Russell Henley (13/1)
Longtime readers and listeners of my content are not going to be surprised by my top two selections here. I don’t love starting the year by jumping up to the top of the odds board, but there’s no chance I’m skipping Russell Henley here, because he’s so far and away ahead of everyone else in my model this week.
Henley won this event in his debut back in 2013, and he’s been frustratingly close to doing it again. He’s finished T11 or better in four of the past five years, including 2022, when he was tracked down late on Sunday by Hideki Matsuyama. His form, which admittedly is tricky at this time of the year, is top tier, since he hasn’t finished outside the top 20 since the PGA Championship back in May. Yes, we used to bet him here at much longer odds, but he’s a significantly better and more consistent golfer than he was five years ago.
It isn’t easy to be competitive on the PGA Tour when your average ball speed off the tee doesn’t touch 170 mph, but Henley bucks the trend. What Henley excels at is rewarded at Waialae. He can control his golf ball off the tee, and he’s an outstanding wedge/short iron player. Henley also possesses an elite short game, particularly on Bermudagrass, where he’s gained an average of 0.55 strokes putting per round over the past three seasons.
Keegan Bradley (22/1)
We saw a lot of really good golf from Keegan Bradley in 2025, and I’m not just talking about the Skins Game, Golf Channel Games, and TGL. Considering how Keegan wore the Ryder Cup captaincy like a 50-pound anchor at times, it’s impressive to consider Bradley’s 11 top-20 finishes in 2025 were the most he’s had in any of the past 12 seasons. If you were looking for his golf game to take a back seat, you were mistaken.
Bradley’s thrilling takedown of the Travelers was one of many examples where he played well against a strong field on a layout that demands elite ball-striking traits. He’s been in contention on Sunday at Waialae in three of the past four years, including a loss to Grayson Murray in a three-man playoff in 2024.
Bradley was seventh in my Rabbit Hole model this week, checking all of the key boxes with strong Bermuda splits, Waialaie course history, and sub-200-yard approach skills. He’s a pretty easy click for me at 20/1 or better.
Nico Echavarria (55/1)
Last season’s Sony Open runner-up parlayed his 2024 swing season heater into a playoff and eventual loss to Nick Taylor to start 2025. He now has two T12 finishes in three career starts at Waialae. Echavarria isn’t a horse for every course, but his particular set of skills is tailor-made for this week’s setup.
Echavarria keeps the ball in play off the tee, and he ranks inside the top 10 in fairway approach proximity from 150-175 yards, the most important approach range of the week. Both elements of his short game are elite, particularly on Bermuda. Harry Hall is the only golfer in this week’s field who has gained 1+ strokes putting at a higher rate than Echavarria over the past 18 months.
I’m looking to ride the wave of another excellent swing season showing from Echavarria, who finished inside the top 14 in three of his last four starts.
Matt McCarty (60/1)
Just like Nico Echavarria, Matt McCarty comes to Waialae with three top 14 finishes in his past three starts. He wasn’t overly impressive in his Sony debut in 2025, but he made it to the weekend, and those extra reps around here certainly help.
Total Driving is one of McCarty’s calling cards, and he’s also dialed from the key 150-175-yard range, ranking fifth in this week’s field over the past 12 months from 150-200.
His putter can get hot, and that’s how you can separate from the field at this event. Over the past 18 months, McCarty has gained one or more strokes putting in 37% of his rounds, comfortably ahead of the Tour average, which is around 27.5%. The gap stretches as you go further down the line, with McCarty gaining 3+ strokes in 7.9% of his rounds, more than double that of an average Tour pro (3.4%).