2025 RSM Classic – Betting Preview

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The PGA Tour heads to the eastern seaboard, bringing the tournament calendar to a close at the idyllic Sea Island Resort in St. Simons Island, Georgia. This week’s RSM Classic is the final regular event of the 2025 year, and after its conclusion, the top 100 in the FedExCup standings going into next year will be finalized.

The RSM Classic has produced numerous longshot champions over the years, including the likes of Robert Streb (twice), Tyler Duncan, Austin Cook, and Adam Svensson. Last year, Maverick McNealy withstood a trio of challengers to pick up his first career PGA Tour victory. The three winners before him were also first-time victors: Ludvig Aberg, Adam Svensson, and Talor Gooch. Each winner has had a similar recipe for success: hitting fairways, attacking pins with wedges and short irons on approach, and getting hot on the greens.

As is the case with most coastal courses, the wind’s strength is the X-factor. Yet even with numerous windy rounds, over the 15 tournaments played at Sea Island, the average winning score has been -18. With daylight at a premium in mid-November, this event is still able to pack a full field of 156 thanks to the use of two courses. Golfers will play both the Sea Island and Plantation courses one time before the 36-hole cut takes place, with the top 65 and ties advancing on to play the weekend solely on the Seaside course.

The Field

In what is typically a weak-field event here on St. Simons Island, this final event of the year has a solid field with four major champions, 10 winners during the 2025 season, and 12 winners of multiple PGA Tour events. There are 28 players in the field among the top 100 in the world rankings. Headliners include Brian Harman, Denny McCarthy, Harris English, Andrew Novak, Davis Thompson, J.T. Poston, Sahith Theegala, Daniel Berger, and Si Woo Kim.

The top 100 players in the FedExCup Fall standings after this week will secure their 2025 Tour membership, earning spots in each full-field Event along with THE PLAYERS Championship. Those who finish ranked 51-60 will get into the first two “Signature Events” in 2026.

The RSM Classic has provided some memorable finishes as four of the last six editions have been decided by one stroke or less, with three going to a playoff. One of the ironies of this event is that first-time Tour winners have had more success at Sea Island than the locals who call this course their home, none of whom have actually won the RSM Classic. Numerous members of the “Sea Island Mafia” will tee it up once again this week on their home course, hoping for better results, including J.T. Poston, Brian Harman, Harris English, Patton Kizzire, Zach Johnson, Matt Kuchar, Keith Mitchell, Andrew Novak, and Greyson Sigg.

Past Winners & Odds

Most Important Stats For Success at Sea Island GC

*In order of importance

SG: Putting (Bermuda)
SG: Coastal Courses/Windy Conditions
SG: Approach
Par 4 Birdie or Better
SG: OTT – Less Than Driver
Birdie or Better %
Bogeys Avoided
SG: Easy Scoring
SG: Short Courses
Proximity 75-150 yds

Key Rabbit Hole Filters

Course Type: Coastal/Resort/Island
Course Region: Southeast
Scoring Conditions: Easy
Course Length: Very Short
Field Strength: Weak
Event Season: Fall
Water Danger: High
Greens Surface: Bermuda
Greens Speed: Fast (Seaside)
Greens Size: Large
Rough Surface: Bermuda
Rough Length: Short
OTT Club Type: Less than Driver
Gain APP: Easy
Gain ARG: Very Easy
Gain Putting: Easy

RSM Classic – Final Model

In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is based on the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is categorized into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of these specific metrics and conditions can be found in “The Rabbit Hole“, with my final model exclusively published here and in the Discord for subscribers.

I am testing out a new ranking method for the weekly model. Instead of the typical player rankings in each category, this is a field-adjusted normalized/percentile method which shows separation much better.