It’s a holiday for some, but we’ll all be celebrating the new hammer rule introduced by the powers that be at the TGL. At first, I was a little apprehensive about a rule change the mid-season, but what the hell, it’s just made for TV sim golf, let’s make the product better in real-time.
The course will be set up differently for all three matches, you can see the order of the holes for them all here.
New Hammer Rules
In TGL, a special advantage called the “hammer” allows a team to double the stakes of a hole. Only one team can possess the hammer at any given time. The team with the hammer can use it whenever they choose during a hole. However, the opposing team gets to decide whether or not to accept the challenge.
If the opposing team accepts the hammer challenge, the hole’s point value doubles. If they decline, they automatically lose the hole and a point. Regardless of whether the challenge is accepted or declined, the team that used the hammer loses possession of it, and the other team gains it.
This “use it and lose it” rule led to a strategic loophole. Leading teams would often hoard the hammer, refusing to use it to prevent the trailing team from having the opportunity to double the stakes and catch up. Even if the trailing team declined the hammer challenge, they would still gain possession of it, making it easier for them to narrow the lead. Therefore, the safest strategy for the leading team was simply to hold onto the hammer, even though this made it harder for the trailing team to make a comeback. This tactic became so prevalent that in two out of the first five TGL matches, the hammer wasn’t used at all.
To address this issue, TGL has implemented new hammer rules. Now, each team gets three hammers to use throughout the match, but they can only use one hammer per hole. This change prevents leading teams from hoarding the hammer and ensures that trailing teams have opportunities to use it to their advantage. The new rule is designed to make the game more exciting for fans by encouraging teams to use their hammers strategically. Think of them like timeouts – each team has a limited number, and there’s strategy involved in deciding when to use them.
Match One: Atlanta Drive (1-0) vs LAGC (2-0)
Watch: 1 pm ET, ESPN
Odds: Atlanta Drive -138, LAGC +110 (FD)
Atlanta is getting back into the arena for the first time since January and will be up against the team at the top of the standings. Looking at the SG stats from the Rabbit Hole over the past 12 months, there is quite a bit of signal for the Drive maybe handing LA their first loss, but again, with the new hammer rules, I tend to lean towards more variance, especially in the middle and late part of the match.
I had usually stuck to the rule of “betting against the team with the weak link,” but despite his stats outdoors, Justin Rose looked pretty damn good on the simulator. Also, Atlanta has had one match, against the atrocious NY team, which they won 4-0. I’m not ready to put them in the upper tiers of the TGL just yet. I’m not 100% sold that LAGC has had a tough match yet either, but their wins have been very convincing
My Bet is LAGC +110. With the added wrinkle of the triple hammer my reluctance to say the Atlanta is good yet, I’ll take the dogs to start the day.
Match Two: Atlanta Drive (1-0) vs The Bay GC (1-0)
Watch: 4 pm ET, ESPN
Odds: Atlanta Drive -120, The Bay -110 (FD)
Speaking of added wrinkles, this will be the first time that a team has to play twice in the same day. I don’t think we’ll be adding any sort of “fatigue factor” in for this, it’s not as if they are walking miles and miles or hitting hundreds of shots. I actually wonder if it plays out the other way for these in that a team is a bit more warmed up and has a tiny advantage playing a second straight match.
The Bay also hasn’t played in a bit, in fact, it’s been since opening night when they upset New York (yes, they were underdogs). With Ludvig coming off a big win out West and Min Woo Lee getting his first action, this one should be a banger as well. Lucas Glover steps in for Billy Horschel in this one and brings another strong iron game to go with JT, but obviously leaves something to be desired in the short game.
My Bet: I hunted around looking for the best prices and found The Bay +100 as well as Atlanta +110! I’ll be dabbling on the latter as even the addition of Lucas Glover shouldn’t have the Drive priced as that big of underdogs here.
Match Three: The Bay GC vs Boston Common (0-1-1)
Watch: 7 pm ET, ESPN
Odds: Boston Common -125, The Bay +100 (FD)
Hideki apparently hasn’t watched much of the new product yet, but he’ll finally be making his Ballfrogs debut tonight and unless Rory’s putting woes follow him to the arena, they should have a decent shot at getting their first win of the season/ever.
So, for the third straight match, the question I have to ask about the Ballfrogs is “will Keegan screw this up?” In the loss to LA, he did end up playing quite a bit better in the singles portion, but the entire team was just awful around the green and putting so any late efforts were too little, too late.
My Bet: Ballfrogs -110 (go shop around please). Hideki hasn’t played on the sim yet, but he’s still Hideki, and as long as Keegan’s wayward drives are offset by Clark giving me some of the same, I think Boston gets off the schneid tonight in the primetime spot.
Gamble responsibly! Please.
Are you betting on real golf? Check out Ron’s course preview for Mexico.