The PGA Tour’s California swing continues this week on the Monterrey Peninsula, headlined by the breathtaking Pebble Beach Golf Links for the Tour’s second “Signature Event” of the season. The changes to the 2024 event were all positive, in my opinion, and they’re all in place again for 2025. Once again, one of the world’s most iconic golf venues will be on display, with the Tour’s top players competing for the elevated purse. The field is maxed at 80 participants, and the 54-hole cut has been removed. Thirty-six holes will be played between Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill on Thursday and Friday, removing the Monterey Peninsula course altogether. The final two rounds will be played without the amateurs and solely at Pebble Beach Golf Links.
It’s encouraging to hear that Shotlink data will now be available for Spyglass Hill rounds moving forward, but for now, we’ll focus on Pebble Beach since three of the four rounds will be played on what’s commonly referred to as the “greatest meeting of land and sea in American golf.”
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We’re looking at a par-72 track that measures only 6,972 yards, the second shortest course on Tour. Driving distance is neutered here, with golfers clubbing down off the tee at one of the highest rates we’ll see and an average drive distance well below the Tour average. Approach shots into these postage stamp Poa greens will mostly come from 150 yards and in. Sidehill lies, elevation changes, and unpredictable wind gusts off the Pacific Ocean and Carmel Bay roll into the Monterey Peninsula, acting as the course’s main defense from target practice from the world’s best golfers. There are a lot of bunkers to navigate as well, and these unique bumpy and sloped Poa green putting surfaces lead to one of the lowest made putt percentages on Tour from inside 15 feet.
For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Also, don’t forget to check out our new research tools, The Stadium Course stats page, along with the Tournament Cheat Sheet.
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Key Rabbit Hole Stats This Week:
- SG: Total, Short and Very Short Courses
- SG: APP, Short and Very Short Courses
- Good Drive%, Less than Driver
- Around the green proximity
- SG: P Hybrid, Baseline putting + Poa putting
There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, and my goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting in the outright market this week. Remember to check out the Rabbit Hole, our customizable stat database that can help you pair down your player pool each week.
Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets.
*Betting lines are accurate at the time of publication in Discord.
Noonan’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Outright Targets
Hideki Matsuyama (25/1, FanDuel)
Hideki Matsuyama’s spot on the odds board for this week’s event got my attention. I know we’re projecting forward, but Matsuyama has won three times since last February, two signature events (2024 Genesis and 2025 Sentry) along with St. Jude, the first leg of the 2024 FedEx Cup playoffs. Despite that, Matsuyama’s opening odds were behind or tied with five golfers (Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa, Patrick Cantlay, Ludvig Aberg, and Sungjae Im) who haven’t won a golf tournament among them since Aberg’s RSM Classic win in November of 2023.
Again, previous wins are descriptive and not predictive, but there’s a strong case that Matsuyama should be going off as the no. 3 at this event, behind only Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy. Over the past 12 months, only Scheffler tops Matsuyama in SG: Total per round, and his ceiling is as good as anyone’s. I’d argue that Matsuyama is playing the best golf of his career, and the numbers bear that out. His recent form, from his past 12 rounds all the way out to his past 50, is comfortably ahead of his already strong baseline rates.
Wyndham Clark (55/1, BetRivers)
I almost didn’t pull the trigger on Wyndham Clark simply because he’s the defending champion. The mind is quite fickle. After firing what ended up being a final-round 60, showcasing elite wedge play and draining every putt he had, Clark won last year’s weather-shortened event by one shot. I’m dialing him up this week to go back-to-back because of his profile, giving him almost no credit for his three-round performance here last season.
Clark is sixth in my Rabbit Hole model this week. The recipe that worked for him last year is one of the strengths of his game. Even when clubbing down off the tee, Clark should have a good deal of approach shots in the 50-125-yard range this week, and he’s been one of the best players on Tour from that range. He struggled with his driver last time out at the AmEx, so if he hasn’t cured that issue, I’m not particularly concerned since he’ll keep the clubhead cover on his driver for most of the week. What did catch my attention at the AmEx was his approach game, where he gained 0.8 strokes per round over the three days, with most coming in the sub-150-yard range.
Russell Henley (70/1, FanDuel)
I’m surprised that Pebble Beach hasn’t been an annual stop for Russell Henley because his game is perfectly suited for what’s on tap this week. Henley came out as the No. 2 player in my model this week. He’s among the top ten in recent form, SG: Total on short and very short courses, around-the-green proximity, and he leads this week’s field in SG: Ball-striking, less than driver, and proximity to the hole from 50-100 yards.
I’m not going to make a serious case that Russell Henley is the second-best golfer in this field, but I do believe 70/1 in the outright market is way too long for a golfer of his caliber. 2024 was the best year of his career, and I believe the gains are real and sustainable for 2025 and beyond. If you don’t believe he can win, he’s an outstanding finishing position shout or matchup target.
Tom Hoge (90/1, FanDuel)
Tom Hoge is a past champion here at Pebble Beach, and while that was a significantly softer field than what Hoge is up against this week, I believe his game fits well to threaten the top of the board again, given his current form.
Hoge ranks second in the field in SG: APP on short and very short courses over the past year. With Pebble Beach creating a lot of forced layups off the tee, leading to the field playing their second shot from a tighter distribution range, Hoge’s disadvantages against the top players in the world are mitigated. He’s also a slightly below-average putter, but he’s been one of the best in the field on California Poa over the past two years. Another longer shot to win who deserves a look in the finishing position markets.
Mark Hubbard (120/1, 6-way E/W, BetRivers)
Just ahead of Tom Hoge in my model this week is Mark Hubbard. I bet Hubbard, covering a top-6 finish via the each-way market, before I dug into his course history here, which includes a T4 at last year’s event. His putter did a lot of the heavy lifting last season, but I’m not in a rush to discount that here like I am at most other Tour stops. The St. Jose State alum is familiar with and comfortable with these Poa greens.
We’ve also seen Hubbard play well in the fall and start of 2025, with a T21 at Waialae and a T12 the following week at the AmEx. This week, Hubbard cracks the top ten in SG: Total on short and very short courses, driven by strong approach numbers, which is what I’m putting the most stock in this week.