Funny week since you can’t miss (outside of an in-tournament withdrawal) in a no-cut event, but with the massive upside of the big purse, the pressure is still on. It’s too early to panic if you missed badly the first few weeks, so don’t go throwing a Hail Mary here. Do the research, find a name you like to compete and don’t be afraid to burn a big name. This is a signature event with a big purse.
So, let’s take the rabbit hole for a spin and see where we end up.
Placements
As I said, it’s not a week where we are looking for cutmakers, but I still wanted to peek at the Finish Position view on the Rabbit Hole to see who was in the same stratosphere as Mr. Scheffler. The string on 1s across the top is very funny but not unexpected. Hovland pops a little with the win equity he brings but is also going through a swing change and might still have a broken toe.
Small Greens
With some of the smaller greens on tour, even with the clubbing down and short nature of the course, I wanted to split the data to look at how the field played
So, I filtered down to only rounds with Small Greens over the past 18 months and looked at birdie or better rates. Plenty of the usual suspects here as well, with Hojgaard sneaking in on the small sample size. Interestingly enough is JT, Collin, and Cantlay joining Scottie as golfers who are also in the top ten in bogey avoidance in this sample as well
Short Course Iron Play
short and very short courses, last 18 months, sorted by Overall proximity to the hole from 100-150. Overall here means “from either the fairway OR the rough” on your approach. This one is a bit messy since you can see there are some golfers who are not rating nearly as well on some of the mid to long iron stuff in this split.
One and Done Thesis
This is a massive purse, you’ve got to score here, and I don’t think any names are off-limits.
Scottie Scheffler is a legitimate threat to win any time he tees it up, while I feel that the field is going to avoid him, it’s maybe not the right time to get contrarian, considering he wasn’t even able to brush his teeth with his right hand a couple of weeks back as he fought through an injury. Maybe you could get weird if you have multiple entries into a massive pool, but outside of that, it feels like he’s better off saving.
The rest of my “Elite” golfers list is a bit of a crapshoot as well. Xander is out with his own injury, Rory just came from the desert with a stop-off in Florida for TGL, and Aberg was puking his guts out last week. Collin Morikawa has been near the top of plenty of leaderboards but has been troubled by closing things out. Hideki and Cantlay have played very good golf in what we’ve seen of them so far in 2025
One and Done Picks
It’s a bit of a longer list this week, but there are plenty of guys who can take advantage of this track with their irons. I still haven’t decided which way to go, but I opted to avoid Scottie and the crew flying in from the Middle East (Rory, Tommy, Højgaard).
Aberg looked pretty unstoppable until the flu stopped him. Hideki has won already this year. Sungjae loves to sneak into a top-five spot. Clark is your returning (54-hole) champ, and Tom Kim looked like the best player in the damn TGL last night.
The name that keeps popping up in some of the research that is driving me up a wall is Justin Thomas. He’s had a very polarizing last couple of years for me and I can’t quite solve where he’s at. I’m taking the coward’s way out on him as well and just tucking him away for later in the year, but I would not blame you for taking him this week at all.
Safe Picks
Ludvig Aberg
Hideki Matsuyama
Collin Morikawa
Patrick Cantlay
Sungjae Im
Justin Thomas
Squirrely
Tom Kim
Wyndham Clark
Russell Henley
Taylor Pendrith
Tom Hoge
Good luck with whoever you land on!