This would seem to be a bit of a moment of truth for the upstart indoor league. There was a lot of good feedback from last week’s debut, but can they keep any momentum as the year goes on, or were most viewers just tuning in to get a quick glimpse of something they aren’t going to invest time in?
Luckily, this week comes with an added draw: Tiger Woods
His Jupiter Links team will take on the Los Angeles GC squad tonight (at an earlier time) as sizeable underdogs.
Betting Odds
Just like anything else, be sure to shop around whenever you’re betting, but even I was surprised to see that there’s actually an overlap right now if you look enough places. The best odds I was able to find for the LAGC was -163 (FanDuel) and for Jupiter +165 at Bookmaker. It’s not exactly an arbitrage opportunity (it’d take like $1600 to guarantee a $5 return), but it’s still just a good illustration of why you should have as many places to bet as possible.
Matchup
Justin Rose and Tiger Woods will hit the first shots of the match in triples, with Collin Morikawa and Kevin Kisner following them and Sahith Theegala and Max Homa going third in the order. This is also the order for the singles (final six holes).
The Matchups for the final six holes (singles) will be:
Rose vs Woods
Morikawa vs Kisner
Theegala vs Homa
Looking at the stats (Last 12 months from the Rabbit Hole), things look pretty dire for my Jupiter Links squad and the lopsided odds look correct. However, I do want to point out that it’s very hard to get a good gauge of where Tiger is. He doesn’t play a ton of golf at this point in his career, and his biggest struggle is the miles and miles of walking that come with playing tour events. He’s still got the softest hands in the damn world around the green and certainly still has elite ball-striking abilities.
The takeaway from last week, though, is that everyone is taking roughly the same amount of shots, and you’re only as strong as your weakest link (sorry, Rickie). Kevin Kisner has senior-tour level club head speed and only makes the cut in one out of every four tournaments he entered in 2024. He’ll be taking the tee shots on:
No. 2: Pick Yer Plunder, Par 5, 590 yards
No. 5: Craic On, Par 3, 175 Yards
No. 8: The Claw, Par 4, 436 yards
No. 11: Alpine, Par 4, 535 yards (singles, so he plays this whole hole)
No. 14: On The Rocks, Par 3, 178 yards (this one too)
Additionally, Kisner is taking your second shot on:
No. 1: The Plank, Par 4, 380 yards
No. 4: Boomerang, Par 5, 622 yards
No. 7: Oh Chute, Par 3, 271 yards
See all the holes for tonight’s match
I know lots can happen in golf and the other team can certainly get themselves in trouble, but those holes I’ve highlighted with some bold feel like they’ll be very hard to compete on with Kisner’s lack of distance.
My request to the bookmakers of the world would be to try and set some handicaps and totals on these matches instead of just the moneyline and some terrible props. I’d love to see something like Jupiter Links +3.5 to bet on tonight.
If you made me bet it (and I’m going to make a pick for every single one of these), I’d be forced to take the favorites. My rough math has them winning this match around 65% of the time and the -163 odds imply more like 62%, so a tiny edge in my numbers I put together with zero data on these guys playing at this simulator.
Bet: LAGC -163
Check out Last Week’s Triumphant Win
How TGL Golf Works
The two teams of three will play the first nine holes in an “alternate shot” that involves all three golfers. The final six holes will be singles matches where each player competes against an opposing player for the entire hole. After that, two new players will go head-to-head for the next hole, meaning each golfer will have two of the six holes for which he is responsible.
Each hole is worth one point; tied holes are worth nothing. The one caveat is THE HAMMER. A team can throw a hammer at any time during the hole, making it worth double the points. The opposing team has the option to decline it, but doing so concedes the hole for one point automatically. After being played, the hammer changes possession, meaning the team who was hammered can then do the hammering. In fact, if they think their opponents made a mistake and they feel confident about a hole, they can play it back immediately, making the hole worth three points.
At the end of the match, the most points wins. A tied match is decided by the best two-out-of-three, closest to the pin, pitching contest.
How to Watch
- The opening TGL Match will be tonight! Tuesday, January 14th at 7 PM ET
- Action can be seen on ESPN and streamed on ESPN+
Betting on the real golf tournament this week? Check out our course preview.