The PGA Tour heads east from Hawaii to the Coachella Valley desert in La Quinta, California, for The American Express at PGA West. This event changes its name like the Viktor Hovland changes swing coaches, so if you’re looking at past events, this could be anything from the Desert Classic, CareerBuilder Challenge, or the Bob Hope Classic.
The American Express is a unique event to handicap. This three-course rotation includes a Pro-Am element, where each pro tees off with an amateur for the first three rounds of the tournament. It also features a 54-hole cut on Saturday night after each golfer has played a round on the events’ three courses. Once everyone’s made their way around the Nicklaus Tournament Course, La Quinta Country Club, and The Stadium Course, the cut-makers will head back out to play The Stadium Course once again for the final round.
A Pete Dye design, The Stadium Course is the only place with Shotlink data for this event. That means we’re flying blind with strokes-gained data for all rounds at Nicklaus and La Quinta. All three of the courses being used share several common characteristics, though. Each features four scoreable par-5 holes and measures under 7,200 yards. They all have Poa trivialis greens and ryegrass fairways, which are bordered by non-penal dormant Bermuda rough. Furthermore, they are among the easiest annual courses in the PGA Tour rotation.
The Stadium Course is the most challenging of the three courses and will host two of the four rounds, including the final round. It features numerous bunkers and seven holes with water hazards. Most of the par-4 holes are designed to be “less-than-driver” due to their narrow fairways and strategically placed bunkers. Strong wedge play from 125 yards or closer is essential for players who adopt an aggressive approach off the tee, and overall, the average approach shot distance is roughly 6 yards shorter than an average PGA Tour event.
An important detail about the grasses on all three courses is that the Bermuda grass is dormant during this time of year. The fairways and rough are overseeded with ryegrass, while the greens are overseeded with Poa trivialis. Players will notice significant changes at the Stadium Course this year, with the greens returning to their original size of an average of 7,000 square feet, compared to the previous size of 5,000 square feet. It’s not going to impact the speed on putts, but they’ll play much firmer and could impact approach proximity.
A quick glance at past leaderboards makes it clear that the winner must go low. The Pro-Am format results in slower greens and amateur-friendly pin placements, so prior success in easy scoring conditions is advantageous. Charley Hoffman’s 2007 victory here was the only winner who did not break 20 under par.
For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Also, don’t forget to check out our new research tools, The Stadium Course stats page, along with the Tournament Cheat Sheet.
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Key Rabbit Hole Stats This Week:
- SG: Total, Easy and Very Easy Scoring Conditions
- SG: Total, Short and Very Short Courses
- Birdie or Better%
- SG: APP, Short and Very Short Courses
- SG: P, Poa Trivialis Greens
There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, and my goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting in the outright market this week. Remember to check out the Rabbit Hole, our customizable stat database that can help you pair down your player pool each week.
Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets.
*Betting lines are accurate at the time of publication in Discord.
Noonan’s American Express Outright Targets
Ben Griffin (70/1, FanDuel)
I expected to like Ben Griffin’s profile a bit this week, but I was surprised to see him come out on top of my Rabbit Hole model, considering the top of this field is pretty strong. I weighed recent performance in easy and very easy scoring conditions above everything else this week, and Griffin’s success there was the driving force behind his spot on top.
Playing on a shorter course or three is also a better time to target Griffin, as you can see. Over the past two seasons, Griffin ranks eighth in this week’s field in SG: APP on short and very short golf courses. He’s also an excellent putter on these smooth Poa Trivialis greens, ranking second in the field in SG: P on this surface over the past two seasons.
J.T. Poston (70/1, FanDuel)
You can essentially cut and paste my Ben Griffin write-up and use the name replacement function to backfill it with J.T. Poston. I backed Poston during his fall win at the Shriners, and I’m willing to pay this price to see if Poston has another one in him.
There are clearly right and wrong spots to back Poston, and shorter courses with easier-than-average scoring conditions are when we need to consider him a threat to win. This is an annual stop on the schedule for Poston, and he’s finished T11, T6, and T25 in his last three appearances.
Tom Hoge (70/1, FanDuel)
Like J.T. Poston, Tom Hoge makes his way to Palm Springs every January. Hoge’s been in contention on Sundays in 2020 and 2022, and it’s not difficult to understand why. Hoge remains one of the best iron players in the world, with above-average proximity marks in every range. Hoge thrives with his short irons, and his approach game was excellent in both stops in Hawaii to start the year. Hoge and Sepp Straka are the only golfers in this field who played the Sentry and Sony Open and gained more than a stroke per round on approach.
Over the past 12 months, Hoge ranks first in this field in SG: APP on short or very short golf courses. He’s also gained strokes putting on every surface other than bentgrass over the past five years, with Poa Trivialis being his best surface over the past calendar year. I was going to be interested in Hoge anywhere north of 50/1, so I was pleasantly surprised to see a 70 on Monday.
Sepp Straka (75/1, FanDuel)
I don’t land on Sepp Straka very often, but this number feels a bit too long. As noted above, Straka comes to Palm Springs in solid form after teeing it up in both Hawaii events. He doesn’t play this event every year, but he did find some success here in 2020 when he finished T4.
Straka is a solid putter, even though he’s not pouring in birdies at a crazy rate, but Poa Trivialis is his best surface over the past calendar year. He’s played his best on tougher courses against stronger fields, but he’s also played well on Pete Dye tracks of late, including the Stadium Course.
Michael Thorbjornsen (150/1, BetRivers)
I’ll continue to go to the well on Michael Thorbjornsen north of 100/1. He was forced to withdraw from last week’s event due to an illness, and I’m hoping he’s well enough to tee it up this week. This isn’t a course that screams Thorbjornsen to me, but at 150/1, this is a bet on talent in the same vein that saw another high-pedigree young gun, Nick Dunlap, win here last season. I said the same thing when backing him at Sanderson Farms and the RSM Classic, and he finished inside the top 10 in both starts.
While his long and straight drives are a bit less of a separator here versus the field, Thorbjornsen is an excellent putter and birdie maker. He’s also played par-3s very well, and the only holes on the Stadium Course that play at or above par are the four par-3s.
Matt McCarty (200/1, FanDuel)
We see more and more Korn Ferry Tour grads come onto the PGA Tour ready to compete right away, and Matt McCarty is no different. After winning three of his final nine starts on the KFT, seven of which were T9 or better finishes, McCarty won the debut of the Black Desert Classic at 23-under back in November. KFT events are rarely played in difficult scoring conditions relative to a standard PGA Tour event, so shorter courses with easier scoring conditions are ideal for McCarty’s game. He also profiles as an accurate driver who gives up a bit to the field in distance, so this sets up as the ideal spot for McCarty’s game.