There are 30 events left, and 14 have the big purse. You should have some sort of plan in place, and honestly, it’s not too late to sit down and sketch that out! While it’s hard to firmly say, “These are the 14 names I’ll be using” for the bigger priced events, there should be at least ten guys that you can’t touch in something like the Amex.
With Xander and Scottie out this week, that problem kind of goes away, but you still need to decide on some of the names that are close to being in the top 15 for you (Cantlay, Sungjae, JT, Burns).
Whatever your plan may be long-term, it’s still important to look at the pool of golfers you have decided to pick from and determine who’s the best fit to make the most money this weekend. In fact, we’ll start there.
Who’s Making the Weekend?
Below is a screen grab from the Rabbit Hole “finishing position” filter. I started, as always, by seeing who’s been “safe.” I sorted this one by Made Cut %. This is the last 18 months of golf, with a minimum of 10 starts. Members can see the entire table on the site and if you wanted to, could even sort this by “West Coast” or “short courses” over a bigger sample.
Top 10 Rates
On the same table view, I also sorted by a few different columns to see if anything stood out, and one thing certainly did when I clicked on Top 10 %. Billy Horschel finished in the top ten 29.6% of the time over the 27 tournament sample. (72% made cut rate)
Spike Week: Approach
Safe isn’t everything, though; I’m also looking for someone who can put together some low rounds and climb the money list for the week. Using the Floor/Ceiling view, I’ve sorted by SG:APP 4+%. Which is to say, what % of rounds did you gain at least four strokes on the field on your approach play over the past 18 months? I usually look at 3 or 4 on here since five is rare and maybe less descriptive.
Tough Par 3s
With some of the toughest holes coming on the par 3s, I ran a quick query on the last two years of golf, sorting out any courses where the Par 3s were categorized as “easy” to see who has been able to tame these over a big sample of golf.
Wildcard: Par 5 scoring
I’ll be pulling up another dozen data tables or so while I’m doing my betting and one and done research for the Amex, but I figured I’d share one more based on the ease of scoring on most of the par 5s here.
I pulled the last year of data for the field on Par five play to see which names would float to the top
One and Done Picks
Like I said at the top, I hate using a really big name at a $8.8 million purse event, but you only end up using around 30 golfers all year, so you’ll have to burn some names eventually. Cantlay is a “save” for me, using him in a bigger purse.
I still think skipping over Sungjae Im and Tony Finau is a good idea here. They will be playing plenty this summer and will find some better spots to slot in. Also a bit terrified to use Justin Thomas until we see how 2025 is looking for his game/psyche.
Pretty Safe
Si Woo Kim
J.T. Poston
Sam Burns
More Unique but Good
Harry Hall
Keith Mitchell
Wanna get Weird?
Rico Hoey
Want to do your own research? Try out the Rabbit Hole now. First month is just $10 for new users using promo code MONTH10