2025 American Express – Betting Preview

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With the “Aloha Swing” concluded, the PGA Tour returns to the mainland as players travel to the Coachella Valley desert in La Quinta, California for The American Express at PGA West. This is a very unique event for several reasons. First, this tournament is part of a Pro-Am where each pro tees off with an amateur for the first three rounds. Another difference is that three different courses will be in use instead of the typical single course. Finally, the cut will occur after 54 holes have been completed on Saturday, instead of the usual 36-hole cut on Friday. It will be the top 65 and ties who make it through to Sunday’s final round on the Stadium Course.

Along with the Pete Dye Stadium Course, the Nicklaus Tournament Course and La Quinta Country Club are the other venues in play for this week. The latter two courses are among the five easiest on Tour, which makes very low-scoring rounds the norm. Players will tee off on those two courses only one time. After more than 50 years of course changes, the current rotation of courses has been the same since 2016.

Each of the courses in the rotation shares many of the same characteristics. First, with mostly calm winds and clear skies in a desert environment, this tournament is as close to “dome golf” as players will experience all year, leading to each being among the top-10 easiest annual PGA courses. All three courses have four scoreable par-5s and measure under 7,200 yards. Each also has pure Poa trivialis greens and ryegrass fairways surrounded by non-penal dormant Bermuda rough.

The Stadium Course is the “most challenging” of the three and will be used for two of the four rounds. It is a Pete Dye design featuring difficult par 3s, plenty of unique bunkers, and seven holes with water danger with which to contend. Another reason the winning score usually ends up in the 25-under range is that all three are resort-style courses with pin placements made intentionally easy for the amateurs who are playing. It is a tournament where all different styles of players can thrive and those with the hottest flat stick in the inevitable putting contest are usually rewarded.

The Field

After last year’s American Express witnessed the strongest field ever to play this tournament, this year’s edition is not far off with nine of the top-25 ranked players in the world in attendance. Headliners include Xander Schauffele, Wyndham Clark, Patrick Cantlay, Sungjae Im, Sam Burns, Justin Thomas, Tony Finau, and Tom Kim. Other notables in La Quinta this week are Jason Day, Rickie Fowler, Brian Harman, Cameron Young, Will Zalatoris, and last week’s Sony Open winner, Nick Taylor. Last year, amateur Nick Dunlap stunned the golf world by winning this event. He returns this year to defend his crown. He will be joined by Si Woo Kim, Adam Long, Jason Dufner, Bill Haas, and Andrew Landry as former champions teeing it up this week.

Players will be paired with an “amateur” for the first three rounds. They could be celebrities, professional athletes, CEOs of companies, or someone you have never heard of who thought it would be a great idea to fork over $30,000 to participate in the event. While most PGA players love the conditions of the courses and the weather, they also despise the format and having to play most pro-ams in general. Rounds can approach six hours with the amateurs tagging along and hacking their way around the course.

Past Winners & Odds

Most Important Stats For Success at PGA West

*In order of importance

Birdie or Better %
SG: APP
Par 5 Scoring
SG: Putting
Par 3 Birdie or Better %
Proximity 125-200 yds
SG: Easy Scoring Courses
SG: Short Courses
SG: Putting 5-15 ft
Bogey Avoidance

Unique Rabbit Hole Filters

Course Region: West
Scoring Conditions: Very Easy/Easy
Course Length: Short/Very Short
Course Type: Desert
Field Size: Full Field
Event Season: West Coast
Greens Surface: Poa Trivialis

Weather Forecast – La Quinta, CA

American Express – Final Model

In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of these specific metrics and conditions can be found in “The Rabbit Hole“, with my final model exclusively published here and in the Discord for subscribers.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/161PZUG95gcxcNljnwFV913BkbcwOEYKg_6daAeid6jY/edit?usp=sharing