The PGA Tour’s FedEx Cup Playoffs begin this week just outside Memphis, Tennessee, at TPC Southwind. The Tour has played here annually since 1989, but this is just the third time it’s been in the lead-off spot for the playoffs. The playoff format shifted last season, moving this event from the top 125 to the top 70 in the FedEx Cup standings. The top 50 advance to next week’s BMW Championship at Castle Pines Golf Club, just outside of Denver, with the top 30 advance to the Tour Championship at Atlanta’s East Lake Golf Club. No one loves the format for the FedEx Cup Playoffs, especially once we get to East Lake’s staggered scoring, but we get the Tour’s best competing against each other for a few weeks in a row, so it’s better than nothing.
The event’s winner has had a finishing score in the teens the past few years, but TPC Southwind can play harder than those results indicate. Multiple doglegs make the 7,243-yard par-70 track play longer than it indicates. The course features zoysia grass fairways, Bermudagrass rough, and Championship Bermudagrass greens, all native to Southeastern United States golf. As a result, scoring chances are few and far between if you don’t find the fairway off the tee. In addition, the greens-in-regulation rate and average proximity to the hole are significantly lower here than at a Tour-average track. As a result, golfers hitting their approach from the fairway will have a significant advantage this week. As will those who can work magic on and around the greens since missing these small green complexes (third-smallest on Tour) is inevitable.
For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Here are a few interesting nuggets about TPC Southwind:
Over the past five events, the course played to 0.82 strokes under par, which puts it right near the middle for Tour difficulty. Since 2004, only one winning score has been outside the 9-under to 19-under range. While it is a par-70, TPC Southwind is not a short course like Harbour Town or Pebble Beach. There are eight lengthy par-4s, and the numerous doglegs stretch the course even further.
The course also features numerous lakes, streams, and ponds, which add up to 11 holes with water directly in play. In fact, TPC Southwind has the most “water balls” on Tour by far. Since 2003, TPC Southwind’s 6,166 balls in the water are the most at any PGA TOUR course during that stretch. The second highest course is TPC Sawgrass, with a huge drop to 5,089. Because of all the water danger, three different holes average higher than a 5% double bogey or worse rate.
With just two par 5s, scoring chances will be limited. Par 4 scoring will be key as the threat of bogeys will be brought much more into play than has been seen over the past couple of weeks. Overall, there are more holes with a 17% bogey rate (ten) than a 17% birdie rate (six). While the rough isn’t ultra-penalizing, the unpredictability of the Bermuda grass results in numerous bogeys, and it becomes a very difficult track to play if you’re missing fairways and greens or splashing it into the water. The greens present another challenge as the third smallest on Tour and are heavily guarded by either water or multiple greenside bunkers.
As important as it is to consistently find fairways, players also benefit from distance OTT on the longer par-4 holes. As the power game in golf continues to increase, we are seeing driving distance numbers continue to rise here at TPC Southwind, where many players are cutting corners over the edges of doglegs. Over the last two years, distance off the tee has averaged over 294 yards, which is the highest two-year span for this course as a PGA Tour event.
Good Drive % on other courses with difficult rough is another key stat this week as it provides a glimpse into which players can find the green on approach even if they missed the fairway. Over the past three years, 43 of the top 48 players on the leaderboard gained in Good Drive % as compared to the field.
TPC Southwind’s tiny greens, perilous hazards, and penal rough have always demanded elite iron play. If wayward drives find the rough, GIR% drops from 76% from the fairway to an astounding 41% from a missed fairway. The rough leaves golfers with a choice to go for the green or to play more conservatively and try to avoid a big number, especially if water is in play on that hole. When in the fairway, short to middle iron play will be vital. On average, 65% of approaches this week will come from the 125-200 yard range, which is well above the Tour average of 56%.
With both a below-average Driving Accuracy and GIR rate, this is a week where players will have to rely on their short game around the greens. On the flip side, every single putting category from these Bermuda greens is easier than the Tour average. 3-putt % and every range show that these greens are among the easiest on Tour.
Remember to check out the Rabbit Hole, our customizable stat database that can help you pair down your player pool each week.
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My top 6 key stats this week:
- Driving Accuracy Hybrid (2:1 Distance From the Edge of the Fairway + Driving Accuracy)
- SG: APP (Last 12, 24, and 50 Rounds)
- SG: BS (Water Danger – HIGH, Last 3 Years)
- SG: OTT (Missed Fairway Penalty – HIGH, Last 12 Months)
- SG: ARG (Rough Surface – BERMUDA, Last 2 Years)
- Bogey Avoidance (Water Danger – HIGH, Last 3 Years)
Noonan’s FedEx St. Jude Championship Betting Picks
Hideki Matsuyama
You can’t get anything done at TPC Southwind if you don’t keep the ball off the tee, so I’m starting my handicap there. Hideki Matsuyama is coming off an excellent bronze medal showing at Le Golf National in Paris, a course that correlates well with what TPC Southwind will demand this week. With water lurking everywhere, Matsuyama kept the ball in play off the tee and gained nearly 1.5 strokes per round on approach, his best SG: APP showing since THE PLAYERS back in March (T6).
Matsuyama ranks ninth overall in my Rabbit Hole model this week, with strong scores in recent form (4th), course history (2nd), approach on Zoysia grass fairways (6th), bogey avoidance (4th), and off-the-tee performance with high missed fairway penalty (10th). He’s also an exceptionally skilled short-game player, which is required here since the greens are so small.
To Win: +3000 (Caesars)
Russell Henley
Admittedly, it doesn’t take much to get me to bite on Russell Henley. So when I saw him finish third in my model this week, I immediately pulled the trigger at 40/1.
It’s hard to make a case against Henley right now. He’s playing consistently well this season, and the Georgia native thrives in the southeast. He was in contention last time out, finishing in solo fifth place at The Open Championship, his third T7 or better finish in the past two major championship cycles. This isn’t just a guy cleaning up against weaker fields; he’s contending against the world’s best.
Henley is going to keep the ball in play off the tee. His adjusted driving accuracy numbers have been positive for 45 consecutive events. You have to go back to the 2022 U.S. Open to find the last time that Henley was below the field average in off-the-tee accuracy. His recent ball-striking numbers are up over a half-stroke per round compared to his rolling 50-round baseline, and he’s the best Bermudagrass putter in the field in 2024.
To Win: +4000 (FanDuel)
Keegan Bradley
Part of the appeal in betting on our 2025 Ryder Cup captain for me is his ability and willingness to adapt his approach to meet the demands of the course. When accuracy off the tee is paramount, we’ve seen Keegan Bradley tighten up his strategy to ensure he keeps the ball in play. He’s had driving accuracy rates of more than 10% above the field average in his past few events where it was important, including last week at the Wyndham Championship. This is not a fluke result after talking with him during Wednesday’s pro-Am. This is a shift in philosophy and one that I think will soon pay off.
Of all the golfers to make the cut last week, Bradley was one of three (Aaron Rai and Ryo Hisatune) who hit at least 75% of the fairways and gained at least 1.3+ strokes ball-striking and 1.5+ strokes tee-to-green. His best finishes this season, T2 at Colonial and Waialae, along with his most recent win at TPC River Highlands, have come on similar tracks to TPC Southwind.
To Win: +10000 (FanDuel)
Austin Eckroat
I’m going down the board with another golfer who tends to be streaky but fares best when accuracy off the tee is rewarded like it is this week. Austin Eckroat won back in February at PGA National, one of the most water-logged courses on Tour. He followed it up with a decent showing in the next few southeast stops, where water danger lurks around every landing zone.
Perhaps Eckroat is a better finishing position bet than a true outright contender, but he’s been someone who’s strung together strong performances, and he’s coming off of a competitive sixth-place finish last week at Sedgefield, gaining strokes across the board. His putter has been letting him down all summer, but he’s gained in three straight starts.
To Win: +15000 (FanDuel)
