The top 70 golfers in the FedExCup standings will travel to Tennessee for the FedEx St. Jude Championship for the opening playoff event of the PGA Tour’s season-long points competition. Nestled in the rolling countryside just southeast of Memphis sits TPC Southwind, which is hosting a playoff event for the second consecutive year.
It is a course that is infamous for its “water balls” and one that historically rewards the best ball-strikers in the world. In the past six events played at this course, winners have included some of the best ball-strikers in the world including Will Zalatoris, Justin Thomas, Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson, Abraham Ancer, and Daniel Berger (twice). TPC Southwind is a course that favors players who are both familiar and competent on Bermuda grass surfaces as its firm and fast greens and its penal rough thrive in the heat and humidity of the American South.
Rory McIlroy gave a quality summation of what it takes to have success at TPC Southwind. “If you do hit it in the rough, it’s going to be hard to control your ball from there. So first thing, you put it in the fairway and put it in play, but I think the biggest thing around here is your approach play. I think sort of seems to be a lot of approach shots between like 140 yards to 170 yards, so that’s a key distance this week. If you can sort of get your pitching wedge through 7-iron dialed in and get those working really well, I think you’ll always have a good chance around this course.”
The Field
Continuing with last year’s newly devised playoff structure, only the top 50 in the FedExCup standings after this week will advance to the BMW Championship. With such a small field, this will be the second consecutive year that the opening event of the playoffs will not have a cut. Since this course has hosted a PGA Tour event every year since 1989 we have plenty of course history and data to rely on this week.
With $20 million in prize money on the line, there is plenty of motivation for the top players to not treat this week as a warm-up for the following two playoff events. Players outside of the top-50 can boost their place in the standings with a good performance this week as points are quadrupled for these first two playoff events, with the winner earning 2,000 points and 70th place earning only 12 points.
As for the 70 players that comprise this field, every eligible player will be in attendance including each of the top eight ranked players in the world, Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy, Ludvig Aberg, Wyndham Clark, Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland and Patrick Cantlay. The biggest names staying home who finished outside the top 70 include Keith Mitchell, Rickie Fowler, Nicolai Hojgaard, and last year’s winner here, Lucas Glover.
Past Winners/Odds
Most Important Stats For Success at TPC Southwind
*In order of importance
- SG: Approach
- Total Driving – DFEF
- SG: ARG/Scrambling (Bermuda)
- Proximity: 125-200
- SG: Par 4
- Birdie or Better %
- Good Drive % (Bermuda rough)
- Bogey Avoidance
- SG: Bermuda courses
- SG: Putting (Bermuda)
Key Rabbit Hole Filters
- Course Region: Southeast
- Scoring Conditions: Average/Easy
- Field Strength: Very Strong
- Par: 70
- Field Size: Small Field
- Event Type: FedEx Cup Playoff
- Water Danger: High
- Greens Surface: Bermuda
- Green Size: Small
- Rough Surface: Bermuda
- Missed Fairway Penalty: High
Weather Forecast – Memphis, TN
FedEx St. Jude Championship – Final Model
In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of these specific metrics and conditions can be found in “The Rabbit Hole“, with my final model exclusively published here and in the Discord for subscribers.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W2RdBTsIqtbHATWfY0n6ivQMXLE8t2dSM_-biZlmZJQ/edit?usp=sharing
Outright Betting Selections
For the most up-to-date picks, check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord at BetspertsGolf.com.
*Lines accurate at the time of publication.
- Rory McIlroy +1000 (02.3u) – MGM
- Tony Finau +4500 (0.50u) – FD
- Justin Thomas +5500 (0.43u) – Rivers
- Max Homa +9000 (0.26u) – Rivers
- Akshay Bhatia +9000 (0.26u) – FD
- Will Zalatoris +11000 (0.21u) – Rivers
Finishing Position Picks
Top 10
- Xander Schauffele -125 (1.5u) – Rivers
- Rory McIlroy +100 (1u) – DK
- Collin Morikawa +145 (1u) – Rivers
Top 20
- Tom Kim +100 (1u) – DK
- Russell Henley +100 (1u) – DK
- Tony Finau +115 (1u) – DK
- Justin Thomas +120 (1u) – DK
- Sahith Theegala +130 (1u) – DK
Top 30 – all DK
- Max Homa +110 (1u)
- Keegan Bradley +120 (1u)
- Ben Griffin +135 (1u)
- Eric Cole +140 (1u)
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Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images