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Our edge in Round 1 is via Greens In Regulation (GIR%). Over the past five years, the Tour average GIR% is 65.8% or roughly 12 (out of 18) GIR per round. We’ve seen three editions of the Memorial since the 2020 renovation, and the GIR% over the three years is 55.7% or roughly 10 GIR per round. So, I’m looking to target golfers who’ve been struggling a bit with their irons of late, as well as golfers who’ve struggled to hit 55% of their GIR at Muirfield Village over the past three seasons. Anyone with a GIR number posted at 12 or higher is worth considering, considering just two golfers in the field have surpassed that rate at Muirfield Village over the past three seasons.
Memorial Underdog Plays – Round 1
Brian Harman – 12 Greens in Regulation – LOWER
Since the 2020 remodel, Brian Harman has hit just 49.1% of his GIR at Muirfield Village. Over his past 20 rounds on Tour, he’s hit just 61.9% of his GIR, and his lack of distance off the tee makes it even harder to navigate this track and hold these firm and fast greens.
Cameron Young – 12 Greens in Regulation – LOWER
Similar to Harman, Young’s recent GIR rate (62.5%) is below the threshold here, and his Muirfield Village rate since the remodel is significantly worse (50.9%). Young comes into the Memorial in less-than-stellar form, losing strokes on approach in three of his past four starts.
Wyndham Clark – 12 Greens in Regulation – LOWER
Wyndham Clark hasn’t gained more than 0.10 strokes on approach since The PLAYERS in mid-March. He’s hit 60% of his GIR here since the remodel, which is slightly below his rolling rate over the past three months. We haven’t seen him since the PGA Championship, where he missed the cut and lost 2.12 strokes per round on approach.
Jordan Spieth – 12 Greens in Regulation – LOWER
Iron play has been at the root of Jordan Spieth’s 2024 struggles. He’s lost 0.29 strokes on approach over the past 50 rounds played, and that number balloons out to 0.44 over his past 12 rounds played. He’s hit just 55.1% of his GIR at Muirfield Village and 62% over his past 36 rounds, still well below the threshold needed to beat us here.
Sahith Theegala – 12 Greens in Regulation – LOWER
At this point, we know Theegala’s MO. His statistical baseline means very little, and his range of potential outcomes is about as vast as anyone on Tour. I’m banking on the bottom of his range here, given his 55.2% GIR% here over the past three starts.
