With only one week until the year’s third major at the U.S. Open, the PGA heads to Muirfield Village, one of the more iconic courses on Tour, as it hosts the Memorial Tournament in Dublin, Ohio. “Jack’s Place” is a beautiful championship venue that has become one of golf’s premier events. Five-time winner of the Memorial, Tiger Woods, summed up the meaning of this tournament and how it’s connected to the respect players have for Jack Nicklaus. “I’ve always tried to play at Jack’s events. What he’s meant to the Tour, I’ve always tried to support his events. This one in particular is very special to him, it’s very special to us as players.”
Designed by Nicklaus himself in 1974 during the midst of his playing career, it is the only venue in history to host the Ryder Cup, Presidents Cup, and Solheim Cup. It’s a demanding course that is bold and long, and one where players must perform well tee-to-green to have any chance at success Those who get out of position in the thick rough, either with wayward drives or poor approaches into the firm greens will struggle to make par. Muirfield Village will provide a stringent test of short-game skills as it ranks as the second toughest course (behind Augusta National) to gain strokes around the green.
After toughening the course in 2020, Nicklaus described his philosophy on the renovation and Muirfield Village in general. “My belief is that tournament golf should be a test to find out who is the best golfer that week. Far too many tournaments have eliminated the rough and firmness of greens, and that is just not my idea of what the game of golf should be. So I’m going to stick with my old-fashioned beliefs about how the game of golf should be played and the way golf courses should be set up. The whole gamut of all shots is what the game of golf is all about. The game should challenge every facet of every club in the bag.”
There has been a diverse group of winners over the past dozen events with some of the elite players rising to the top in recent years. The strokes gained profiles of the last two winners have exemplified the need for “the whole gamut of all shots”. In 2022, Billy Horschel succeeded throughout his bag, gaining 8.4 strokes ball-striking and 9 strokes with his short game. Last year, Viktor Hovland won a low-scoring event by gaining 6.2 strokes ball-striking and 7 strokes on and around the greens.
The Field
Typically an invitational event with a 120-player field, The Memorial is a “Signature Event” containing only 73 players this year. It is one of three player-hosted tournaments along with “The Genesis Invitational” and the “Arnold Palmer Invitational” that feature a 36-hole cut to the top 50 and ties plus any player within 10 shots of the lead. With a total purse of $20 million, the winner receives $4 million and 700 FedExCup points.
Muirfield Village typically hosts one of the strongest fields on Tour, and this year is no different with only the best players qualifying. Every eligible player within the top 35 in the world rankings will be in attendance including world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, four-time major championship winner Rory McIlroy, winner of this year’s PGA Championship, Xander Schauffele, two-time Memorial winner Patrick Cantlay, and defending Memorial champion Viktor Hovland. The only player turning down the invitation to play is last week’s Canadian Open winner, Robert Macintyre, who is choosing to return home to Scotland to celebrate his first PGA Tour victory.
Past Winners/Odds
Betting Thoughts
With Muifield Village having penal 4″ rough and the highest “Missed Fairway Penalty” on Tour, there is a definite premium on finding the fairway along with enough distance OTT to allow for higher-lofted irons into these very firm greens. “Total Driving”, “Distance From Edge of Fairway” and “Good Drive %” are my three most heavily weighted metrics OTT.
That being said, the importance of the approach game into these ultra-firm, smaller-than-average greens can’t be emphasized enough. I know it sounds like it gets repeated for almost every event, but this week Strokes Gained Approach really matters. Jack Nicklaus believes in challenging players on approach and into the greens so that those who hit quality irons and can scramble to save par will rise to the top. Since the renovation, this is the toughest course on Tour to gain strokes in that area. SG: Approach and SG: Around the Green are the two metrics I have focused on with my player selection as ball-strikers and short-game wizards have contended with high frequency on past leaderboards.
This course demands precision on every stroke, yet birdie opportunities can be gained if players can find the right quadrant on the greens. The top-6 on the leaderboard both in 2021 and last year gained an average of 4.8 shots on approach. In 2022, not a single player in the top 13 gained less than 2.1 strokes with their approaches. Long-iron play will be paramount with 49% of approach shots coming from over 175 yards. This is well above the Tour average of 44%.
Another key factor this week that players have been heavily quoted on is leaving your putts below the hole in the proper area of the green. With the greens sloping so severely in spots, there are many locations where the ball will gather to the hole. Much of this is learned by course experience which is another reason to target players who have been battle-tested at Muirfield. Learning where you can and can’t miss will be paramount to success. Finally, players with a higher ball apex who can land their ball softer on these greens will be crucial for a higher GIR%.
The other area I am heavily focused on with my finish position bets is around-the-green play. Because greens in regulation are only hit at a 55% clip, plenty of approaches end up in the 4-inch rough. Scrambling is only successful around these green complexes 54% of the time making it one of the toughest courses to gain strokes in that area.
Much of the scoring difficulty at Muirfield comes mostly from the touch and creativity golfers need to display with their short game. Over the last decade, it has ranked inside the top eight most difficult courses in around-the-green difficulty. With players missing greens almost half the time, scrambling opportunities will be plentiful. SG: ARG is the fourth most correlated stat to having success here. And it’s not just the 4-inch rough that gives players trouble, it’s the 68 bunkers that surround these greens, many of which are massive and deep.
Muirfield Village has always had a “major” feel to it thanks to the strength of the field and the tough “U.S. Open” type conditions. With the exception of a three-year stretch from 2015-2017, it has been the elite talents in the game that have won this event. With that in mind, this makes it much easier to narrow down an outright card with a focus on players with odds of 50-1 or lower. Thus I have completely refrained from longshots this week. Going back to 2010, when taking out the two longshots in David Lingmerth and William McGirt, the average winner’s odds was +3900.
With putting being easier than average at Muirfield Village, along with the difficulty of the other Strokes Gained areas, tee-to-green success is paramount this week. It increases the value of T2G stalwarts like Tony Finau, Si Woo Kim, Shane Lowry, Lucas Glover, and Kurt Kitayama. As is typical in these types of events, using the “Rabbit Hole” I have emphasized past performance on other courses with “Difficult Scoring Conditions”, “SG: Very Long” courses, and “SG: Strong Fields.”
Most Important Stats For Success at Muirfield Village GC
*In order of importance
- SG: APP
- Scrambling (Rough)
- Good Drive % (Rough)
- SG: Par 5
- Proximity 175+ yds
- Bogey Avoidance
- Distance From Edge of Fairway
- SG: Putting (Bentgrass)
- Driving Distance
- SG: Course History + Other Difficult T2G Courses
Key Rabbit Hole Filters
- Course Region: Midwest
- Scoring Conditions: Very Difficult
- Course Length: Very Long
- Field Strength: Very Strong
- Field Size: Small Field
- Water Danger: High
- Greens Surface: Bent
- Green Speed: Fast
- Green Size: Small
- Rough Surface: Bluegrass
- Rough Length: Long
- Fairway Accuracy: Difficult
- Missed Fairway Penalty: High
- Rough Penalty: High
- Gain APP: Very Difficult
- GAIN ARG: Very Difficult
- Scrambling – Rough: Difficult
The Memorial – Final Model
In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of these specific metrics and conditions can be found in “The Rabbit Hole“, with my final model exclusively published here and in the Discord for subscribers.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1M8dtV2JZyw6xb9xI7Z-BnnFGGE-3tZ01SpgRBJYhllE/edit?usp=sharing
Outright Betting Selections
For the most up-to-date picks, check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord at BetspertsGolf.com.
*Lines accurate at the time of publication.
- Patrick Cantlay +2800 (0.85u) – Caesars
- Max Homa +4500 (0.53u) – BetRivers
- Hideki Matsuyama +4500 (0.53u) – FanDuel
- Wyndham Clark +5000 (0.47u) – FanDuel
- Byeong Hun A +5500 (0.43u) – Fanatics
- Tony Finau +6000 (0.40u) – Fanatics
- S.W. Kim +6500 (0.36u) – Fanatics
- Will Zalatoris +8000 (0.30u) – Fanatics
Finishing Position Picks
Top 5
- Scottie Scheffler -110 (2u) – DraftKings
Top 10
- Rory McIlroy -105 (1.1u) – DraftKings
- Viktor Hovland +150 (1u) – DraftKings
Top 20 – all DraftKings
- Ludvig Aberg -110 (1.1u)
- Patrick Cantlay -110 (1.1u)
- Hideki Matsuyama +125 (1u)
- Tony Finau +150 (1u)
Top 30 – all BetRivers
- Max Homa -110 (1.1u)
- Matt Fitzpatrick -110 (1.1u)
- Byeong Hun An +100 (1u)
- Wyndham Clark +100 (1u)
- Will Zalatoris +138 (1u)
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Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images