The Canadian Open is a staple of the annual PGA Tour schedule, but our neighbors to the North have a national course rota that makes this event unique every season. For the first time since 2019, we’re headed to Hamilton Golf and Country Club, one of North America’s finest tracks.
This week’s 18-hole layout is a routing mix that pulls from all three of Hamilton’s nine-hole courses. Similar to last week at Colonial, it’s had a facelift since the last time the Tour was here. Following the 2019 Canadian Open, Hamilton Golf and Country Club embarked on a meticulous restoration project. Led by architects Martin Ebert and Tom Mackenzie, the effort aimed to recapture the original essence envisioned by legendary golf architect Harry Colt. Extensive tree removal opened up the course, revealing the scenic beauty of the layout and Colt’s design principles.
The course itself presents a unique test. Measuring 7,084 yards and playing to a par 70, Hamilton ranks as the 17th-shortest course on the PGA Tour. However, don’t be fooled by the yardage. The property boasts dramatic elevation changes throughout. Distance control and accurate yardage will be paramount for success this week.
Opinions differ on whether the post-renovation course is harder or easier. While the layout remains very playable for members, it can be unforgiving for golfers who stray from the fairway. Thick rough and strategically placed bunkers add a layer of challenge, demanding precise shot-making. Scoring opportunities are limited, with only two par 5s on the par-70 layout, and both are reachable in two shots. The par 3s are no picnic either, with the 249-yard 6th hole posing a significant test. Three shorter par 4s (under 400 yards) provide some respite, but the remaining nine par 4s rank among the Tour’s shortest, ensuring a strategic and demanding round for this week’s 156-golfer field.
For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, but there are none. Here’s an important tidbit about Hamilton Golf and Country Club:
Hamilton has six dogleg holes and 30-yard wide fairways surrounded by penal 3.5″ rough to challenge players off the tee. Back in 2019, players like Rory McIlroy and Dustin Johnson blasted driver on a majority of holes and played a “”bomb and gauge”” style. The eventual winner, McIlroy, hit the driver 73% of the time, while Johnson (finished 20th) led the field with 86% driver usage. While that is a strategy that will likely see a higher rate this week, make no mistake, at its core, Hamilton is a” “less than driver”” positional track that only averaged 283 yards off the tee combined with 55% fairway accuracy and 59% driver usage in 2019. Only three players in the top-10 gained strokes OTT with distance, while 14 of the top 16 gained strokes with accuracy. Even with the massive tree removal, these fairways remain tight and lined with a variety of mature trees.
One of the biggest changes during the renovation was wrapping all the greens in short grass and pushing them up so players who miss the surface will have a tight-lied chip to negotiate with. In fact, every single hole is surrounded by an apron of short grass. While the thicker rough will rarely come into play around the greens, leaving little room for variety, these collection areas will allow players to liberally use putter or low running shots from off the green.
One of the characteristics Harry Colt was most known for in his course design was undulating green complexes. While the green sizes increased, Ebert sought to maintain the elevated “back-to-front” sloping surfaces that Colt would have been proud of. The greens themselves changed from a bentgrass/poa mix in 2019 to 100% V8 creeping bentgrass.
Remember to check out the Rabbit Hole, our customizable stat database that can help you pair down your player pool each week.
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My top 5 key stats this week:
- SG: APP
- Good Drive% (Gaining Off The Tee -Average, Difficult, and Very Difficult)
- SG: Ball-striking, less than driver
- Distance from the edge of the fairway
- Scrambling – Short Grass
Rory McIlroy sits in a place on the odds board that resembles what we’ve seen over the past two months from Scottie Scheffler. He would’ve been an interesting option at +650 or +700, but he’s a pretty easy fade at his current market price, which is sub-4/1 across the board as of this writing.
Noonan’s RBC Canadian Open Outright Picks
Tommy Fleetwood
This feels like an exceptional course fit for what Tommy Fleetwood does best. He’s elite off the tee, gaining strokes in both distance and accuracy in most weeks. A wayward tee shot here eliminates any scoring chances, so finding the fairway without sacrificing distance is paramount, and that’s one of the more consistent strengths of Fleetwood’s game.
As is often the case with Tommy Lad, he’s been knocking on the door all season long. He won in Dubai back in January, but finding the winner’s circle in North America continues to evade him. I think that the drought ends this week. He’ll keep himself in play off the tee, and his short game is one of the best in this week’s field.
- To Win: +1600 DraftKings
- Top 10: +160 BetMGM
Tom Kim
I’m looking for a specific skill set this week, and I think you’ll see that commonality linked throughout my picks. I want top-tier players who thrive at putting themselves in a position to score off the tee. Tom Kim ranks inside the top five in this week’s field in both driving accuracy and distance from the edge of the fairway. He’s been a better short iron player than long iron player this season, which bodes well for Kim this week with a greater than normal plurality of approach shots coming from 175 yards or less.
He hasn’t flashed the ball-striking upside that we know he has often in 2024, but his game is perfectly suited for what it’ll take to navigate Hamilton Golf and Country Club this weekend.
Daniel Berger
It’s been an uneven start to Daniel Berger’s 2024 return from a back injury that cost him all of 2023, but he’s playing his best golf of the season right now and could be turning the corner. He’s made the cut in three straight events, highlighted by a T13 at the Byron Nelson.
The interesting thing about his 2024 performance to date is that his short game has been inconsistent after being the strength of his game over the past 3-4 seasons. The increased reps likely help, so I anticipate it’ll return, and it has been trending up after a really rocky start. What’s remained is his elite ability to find fairways and put himself in a position to score on approach shots, and this course is much more suited for his game compared to some of the longer tracks that he’s teed it up at so far this season.