My approach to golf betting and daily fantasy is deeply rooted in statistical modeling. It\u2019s not the only way to go about handicapping a golf tournament, but I think it\u2019s the best way. It helps me eliminate biases and identify golfers purely based on whether they are in good form and if their game syncs up with the course they are about to play.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In this article, I will put together a weighted statistical model specific to the course and tournament. The statistics are chosen and weighted based on historical data from previous tournaments. In addition to course specific data, I will also look at recent form and any other potential relevant angle. The model accounts for the last 50 measured rounds, with the more recent rounds receiving increasingly more weight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Sedgefield Country Club is a very model friendly course. There are plenty of times when a course doesn\u2019t really fit into a model well because it fits all different types of players and skill sets. That doesn\u2019t apply to the Wyndham Championship. There are very clear key stats given the history of the tournament. Nearly half the holes at Sedgefield fit into the same yardage bucket, and over one-quarter of the approach shots coming from the same bucket as well. You have to hit fairways and avoid three-putting the Bermuda greens. In addition, the two Par 5s on this Par 70 have high eagle rates, requiring a go for the green in two mentality.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
SG: Approach<\/strong> \u2014 Approach shots are the bread and butter of every statistical model. Though putting oddly ranks higher among the top finishers at this tournament, approach is still incredibly important as always<\/p>\n\n\n\n Opportunities Gained<\/strong> \u2014 Opportunities gained is a vital stat because it tells you who is giving themself birdie looks. Greens in regulation percentage is somewhat fluky because they could be hitting greens and still leaving themselves 40-foot putts. We want guys who are gaining shots on approach by giving themselves birdie putts inside 15-feet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Fairways Gained<\/strong> \u2014 The top 20 on the leaderboard at the Wyndham Championship all hit fairways at a higher rate than those that finish outside the top 20. We want players that are going to find fairways and set themselves up for an easier green in regulation. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Recent Form<\/strong> \u2014 We obviously want to roster golfers who are playing well at the moment. Recent form takes into account the total strokes gained over the last few tournaments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Eagles Gained \u2014 <\/strong>Both Par 5s at Sedgefield have high eagle rates. We want to prioritize players that are going to give themselves a chance at an eagle putt, which should hopefully turn into an easy birdie at the very least.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Proximity: 150-175 \u2014 <\/strong>Over 27% of the approach shots come from 150-175 at Sedgefield. This is a massive percentage from one bucket and 7% more than tour average from this range. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Par 4: 400-450 \u2014 <\/strong>Eight of the Eighteen holes at Sedgefield come from this range. While this is somewhat of an overlap of the previous 150-175 proximity statistic, players could attack these short holes in a different manner by hitting to their favorite approach yardage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Three-Putt Avoidance \u2014 <\/strong>The downfall of many good ball-striking rounds at Sedgefield has been three putting on these Bermuda greens. The average three putts per round here is 12% higher than tour average.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Bermuda Putting<\/strong> – The players will be back on Bermuda for the first time in a while. Here are the best Bermuda putters<\/p>\n\n\n\n Correlated Courses<\/strong> – Since adding this to the model a few weeks ago, I’ve been surprised at how many players that land on this list of strokes gained at similar courses actually perform well. It’s basically strokes gained at the top five or six courses that correlate to Sedgefield CC the strongest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Course History<\/strong> – The most strokes gained, on average, at Sedgefield CC<\/p>\n\n\n\n One of the flaws that I often come across in modeling is focusing on a fixed range of time or rounds and taking a wider view to determine if a player is peaking or fading leading up to an event. For instance, a player\u2019s high rating in a model that only focuses on the last 50 rounds could be a result of playing well four months ago. In this section I will lay out the players who have improved or faded statistically over the course of their last 50 rounds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Pat James ranksk the Top 50 golfers in the Wyndham Championship field based on course fit, course history, and recent form.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":23,"featured_media":8358,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":""},"bs_types":[14,15],"bs_tags":[29,73,126],"class_list":["post-8606","article","type-article","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","bs_type-betting","bs_type-fantasy","bs_tag-golf-betting","bs_tag-golf-dfs","bs_tag-wyndham-championship"],"acf":false,"featured_image":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/gettyimages-1526109203-612x612-1.jpg","tags_list":[{"id":29,"name":"Golf Betting","slug":"golf-betting"},{"id":73,"name":"Golf DFS","slug":"golf-dfs"},{"id":126,"name":"Wyndham Championship","slug":"wyndham-championship"}],"types_list":[{"id":14,"name":"Betting"},{"id":15,"name":"Fantasy"}],"bs_author":{"name":"Pat James","profile_image":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/GWeejIKx_400x400-150x150.jpg"},"bs_term_name":null,"is_paid":"true","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/article\/8606","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/article"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/article"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/23"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/8358"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8606"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"bs_type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/bs_types?post=8606"},{"taxonomy":"bs_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/bs_tags?post=8606"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
Peaking and Fading<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Peaking<\/h5>\n\n\n\n
\n
Fading<\/h5>\n\n\n\n
\n
Statistical Top 50<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
1<\/td> Hideki Matsuyama<\/td> Hideki’s decent putting stats this season haven’t been weighing down his overall ranking. He’s top ten in short term course fit, long term course fit, form, course history, and correlated course history. Putting at 43 is just good enough to keep him in the top spot.<\/td><\/tr> 2<\/td> Denny McCarthy<\/td> Denny rates out first in the Par 4 yardage bucket, and 16th or better in course history, correlated courses, and putting.<\/td><\/tr> 3<\/td> Kevin Streelman<\/td> The man of Streel is first in correlated course history. He popped last week and ended up being a pretty solid play. He’s also a peaking player having moved up to 17th in short term course form over the last 50 rounds.<\/td><\/tr> 4<\/td> Aaron Rai<\/td> The only thing holding Rai back right now is putting. There’s no denying he’s been poor, but everything else is top tier from his driving accuracy, approach game, and correlated course history.<\/td><\/tr> 5<\/td> Shane Lowry<\/td> Lowry checks in with top ten short term course form, long term course form, and correlated course history.<\/td><\/tr> 6<\/td> Brendon Todd<\/td> The Todd Father doesn’t really pop anywhere but bermuda putting, but he’s very consistent across the board in course fit, form, and correlated course history.<\/td><\/tr> 7<\/td> Sungjae Im<\/td> Im hasn’t been playing great, however he is boosted heavily by his course form and correlated course form<\/td><\/tr> 8<\/td> Chris Kirk<\/td> Kirk is actually a fading player ranking first in long term course fit but playing worse as the season has gone on, there’s no reason to think he can’t find some form on a course that fits his game for a few rounds this week, however.<\/td><\/tr> 9<\/td> Adam Hadwin<\/td> Hadwin is a peaking player jumping up to 11 in short term course fit. He’s also 17th in correlated courses. At his odds I think he’s a great outright bet this week.<\/td><\/tr> 10<\/td> Mark Hubbard<\/td> Hubbard rates out 5th in approach, 11th in long term course form, and 35th at Sedgefield.<\/td><\/tr> 11<\/td> Eric Cole<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 12<\/td> Ryan Moore<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 13<\/td> Alex Smalley<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 14<\/td> Ryan Armour<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 15<\/td> Chez Reavie<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 16<\/td> Russell Henley<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 17<\/td> Cam Davis<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 18<\/td> Lucas Glover<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 19<\/td> Stephan Jaeger<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 20<\/td> Adam Schenk<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 21<\/td> Sam Burns<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 22<\/td> Kevin Yu<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 23<\/td> Doug Ghim<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 24<\/td> Christiaan Bezuidenhout<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 25<\/td> Keith Mitchell<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 26<\/td> Si Woo Kim<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 27<\/td> Ludvig Aberg<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 28<\/td> JT Poston<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 29<\/td> Ben Griffin<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 30<\/td> Adam Scott<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 31<\/td> Taylor Pendrith<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 32<\/td> Sam Ryder<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 33<\/td> Davis Riley<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 34<\/td> Andrew Putnam<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 35<\/td> Akshay Bhatia<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 36<\/td> Ben An<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 37<\/td> Brandon Wu<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 38<\/td> David Lipsky<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 39<\/td> Austin Eckroat<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 40<\/td> Jason Dufner<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 41<\/td> Vincent Norrman<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 42<\/td> Billy Horschel<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 43<\/td> Alex Noren<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 44<\/td> Justin Lower<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 45<\/td> Nicolai Hojgaard<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 46<\/td> Carson Young<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 47<\/td> Zac Blair<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 48<\/td> Dylan Wu<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 49<\/td> Ryan Palmer<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 50<\/td> Russell Knox<\/td> <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"