My approach to golf betting and daily fantasy is deeply rooted in statistical modeling. It\u2019s not the only way to go about handicapping a golf tournament, but I think it\u2019s the best way. It helps me eliminate biases and identify golfers purely based on whether they are in good form and if their game syncs up with the course they are about to play.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In this article, I will put together a weighted statistical model specific to the course and tournament. The statistics are chosen and weighted based on historical data from previous tournaments. In addition to course specific data, I will also look at recent form and any other potential relevant angle. The model accounts for the last 50 measured rounds, with the more recent rounds receiving increasingly more weight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
SG: Approach<\/strong> \u2014 Approach shots are the bread and butter of every statistical model. No one is going to survive a US Open if they aren’t at the very least above average in their approach play.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Opportunities Gained<\/strong> \u2014 This stat measures birdie opportunities within 15 feet from the hole plus any greens hit in under regulation (on the green with an eagle putt or better). It\u2019s a bit more accurate than a green in regulation stat because not all greens in regulation are the same considering a 50-foot birdie putt and 4-foot birdie putt are scored the same. I think this will be super important this week as if you aren\u2019t super accurate, you\u2019re probably not holding the green.<\/p>\n\n\n\n SG: Off-the-Tee <\/strong>(with added emphasis on distance)<\/strong>\u2014 Off-the-tee always pops in US Open look backs. I did boost distance a tad by adding it into column so that it double counts length just a tiny bit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Par 3 Scoring (225+)<\/strong>\u2014 There are some Par 3s on this course that most amateurs couldn’t reach with their driver. Heck, I’m not sure Zach Johnson will be able to reach the two 280+ holes. Either way, having the ability to score or at least tread water on these holes will be crucial.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Proximity: 200+<\/strong> \u2014 The LA Country Club has long holes and also some angles that make holes longer than they seem. It’s going to be important to have the long irons running pure to contend for the year’s third major.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Recent Form<\/strong> \u2014 Professional golfers can play well at any given tournament, however when it\u2019s always important to give an added boost to guys who are in a groove with their swing and have been playing well leading up to a tournament.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Difficult Course Form \u2013 <\/strong>The players that have gained the most strokes, on average, at courses rated difficult to par.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Putting from 5-10 Feet (Lightning\/Fast) \u2013 <\/strong>There are going to be a ton of slippery par saves from around 7-8 feet that could be the deciding factor when it’s all said and done. The best players at rolling in shorter putts on lightning fast greens will have a big advantage<\/p>\n\n\n\n Bogey Avoidance – <\/strong>The tough test the US Open sets forth requires players to avoid making big numbers. Picking your spots for birdie chances and doing your best to par your way through the course should be the focus of most this week. Below are the top guys at avoiding boxes on the scorecard<\/p>\n\n\n\n Peaking and Fading<\/strong> \u2013 One of the flaws that I often come across in modeling is focusing on a fixed range of time or rounds and taking a wider view to determining if a player is peaking or fading leading up to an event. For instance, a player\u2019s high rating in a model that only focuses on the last 50 rounds could be a result of playing well four months ago. In this section, I will lay out the players who have improved or faded statistically over the course of their last 50 rounds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Peaking<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Fading<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Pat James ranks the top 50 players in the field for the US Open based on key stats, course comps, and recent form<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":23,"featured_media":7519,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"disabled","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":""},"bs_types":[14,15],"bs_tags":[29,73],"class_list":["post-8035","article","type-article","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","bs_type-betting","bs_type-fantasy","bs_tag-golf-betting","bs_tag-golf-dfs"],"acf":false,"featured_image":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/GettyImages-1394219031.jpg","tags_list":[{"id":29,"name":"Golf Betting","slug":"golf-betting"},{"id":73,"name":"Golf DFS","slug":"golf-dfs"}],"types_list":[{"id":14,"name":"Betting"},{"id":15,"name":"Fantasy"}],"bs_author":{"name":"Pat James","profile_image":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/GWeejIKx_400x400-150x150.jpg"},"bs_term_name":null,"is_paid":"true","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/article\/8035","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/article"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/article"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/23"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/7519"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8035"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"bs_type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/bs_types?post=8035"},{"taxonomy":"bs_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/bs_tags?post=8035"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}Scottie Scheffler<\/td><\/tr> Jon Rahm<\/td><\/tr> Wyndham Clark<\/td><\/tr> Collin Morikawa<\/td><\/tr> Justin Rose<\/td><\/tr> Emiliano Grillo<\/td><\/tr> Viktor Hovland<\/td><\/tr> Hideki Matsuyama<\/td><\/tr> Sepp Straka<\/td><\/tr> Tony Finau<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n Wyndham Clark<\/td><\/tr> Sungjae Im<\/td><\/tr> Nick Taylor<\/td><\/tr> Hideki Matsuyama<\/td><\/tr> Tyrrell Hatton<\/td><\/tr> Xander Schauffele<\/td><\/tr> Patrick Cantlay<\/td><\/tr> Adam Hadwin<\/td><\/tr> Jordan Spieth<\/td><\/tr> Jason Day<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n Scottie Scheffler<\/td><\/tr> Patrick Cantlay<\/td><\/tr> Shane Lowry<\/td><\/tr> Michael Kim<\/td><\/tr> Xander Schauffele<\/td><\/tr> Tyrrell Hatton <\/td><\/tr> Viktor Hovland<\/td><\/tr> Jon Rahm<\/td><\/tr> Jordan Spieth<\/td><\/tr> Tommy Fleetwood<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n Jon Rahm<\/td><\/tr> Shane Lowry<\/td><\/tr> KH Lee<\/td><\/tr> Joel Dahmen<\/td><\/tr> Adam Handwin<\/td><\/tr> Alex Noren<\/td><\/tr> Cam Young<\/td><\/tr> Sergio Garcia<\/td><\/tr> Keegan Bradley<\/td><\/tr> Scottie Scheffler<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n Jon Rahm <\/td><\/tr> Joaquin Niemann<\/td><\/tr> Tom Hoge<\/td><\/tr> Tony Finau<\/td><\/tr> Scottie Scheffler<\/td><\/tr> Justin Rose<\/td><\/tr> Rory McIlroy<\/td><\/tr> Dustin Johnson<\/td><\/tr> Charley Hoffman<\/td><\/tr> Hideki Matsuyama<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n Scottie Scheffler<\/td><\/tr> Viktor Hovland<\/td><\/tr> Rory McIlroy<\/td><\/tr> Tyrrell Hatton <\/td><\/tr> Wyndham Clark<\/td><\/tr> Xander Schauffele<\/td><\/tr> Justin Rose <\/td><\/tr> Tommy Fleetwood<\/td><\/tr> Wyndham Clark <\/td><\/tr> Jon Rahm<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n Scottie Scheffler<\/td><\/tr> Viktor Hovland<\/td><\/tr> Rory McIlroy<\/td><\/tr> Xander Schauffele<\/td><\/tr> Patrick Cantlay<\/td><\/tr> Jordan Spieth<\/td><\/tr> Justin Rose <\/td><\/tr> Tommy Fleetwood<\/td><\/tr> Wyndham Clark <\/td><\/tr> Tyrrell Hatton<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n Tommy Fleetwood<\/td><\/tr> Taylor Moore<\/td><\/tr> Matt Kuchar<\/td><\/tr> Harris English<\/td><\/tr> Ryan Fox<\/td><\/tr> Taylor Montgomery<\/td><\/tr> Justin Rose<\/td><\/tr> Brooks Koepka<\/td><\/tr> Cam Smith<\/td><\/tr> Brian Harman<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n Jason Day<\/td><\/tr> Wyndham Clark<\/td><\/tr> Tommy Fleetwood<\/td><\/tr> Scottie Scheffler <\/td><\/tr> Hideki Matsuyama<\/td><\/tr> Tyrrell Hatton <\/td><\/tr> Xander Schauffele<\/td><\/tr> Patrick Cantlay<\/td><\/tr> Adam Hadwin<\/td><\/tr> Jordan Spieth<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n Hideki Matsuyama<\/td><\/tr> Rickie Fowler<\/td><\/tr> Jordan Spieth<\/td><\/tr> Corey Conners<\/td><\/tr> Michael Kim<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n Tom Hoge<\/td><\/tr> Max Homa<\/td><\/tr> Cam Young<\/td><\/tr> Justin Suh<\/td><\/tr> Si Woo Kim<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n Stat Model Top 50 Rankings<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
1. Scottie Scheffler<\/td> Scheffler has been lacking with the putter but rates out top seven in approach, long par 3s, 200+ proximity, and opportunities gained. He’s also tops in difficult courses and recent form.<\/td><\/tr> 2. Xander Schauffele<\/td> Xander rates out seventh in recent course fit and fourth in long term course fit. He rates out fourth in difficult to par courses and sixth in recent form.<\/td><\/tr> 3. Patrick Cantlay<\/td> Cantlay rates out top ten in bogey avoidance opportunities gained, and 8th in the off the tee metric. I will say he hasn’t made much noise in majors in his career despite rating well in key stats.<\/td><\/tr> 4. Wyndham Clark<\/td> Wyndham Clark is the first surprise on the list. He’s played well this season and rates out well thanks to top three ratings in bogey avoidance, opportunities gained, and approach.<\/td><\/tr> 5. Brooks Koepka<\/td> Koepka is placed here by me manually because he doesn’t have the requisite rounds to land in the model, but he fits the bill with his length off the tee and his ability to contend on difficult courses in difficult fields.<\/td><\/tr> 6. Viktor Hovland<\/td> Hovland rates out top 12 in approach, 200+ approximately, and bogey avoidance. He rates out second in form and difficult courses as well.<\/td><\/tr> 7. Tyrrell Hatton<\/td> Hatton lands in the top 15 in off the tee, long par 3s, 5-10 foot putts, and bogey avoidance. Hatton is also in the top ten for difficult courses and recent form.<\/td><\/tr> 8. Jon Rahm<\/td> This is probably the lowest Rahm has been and it’s a result of his scoring on difficult courses. Although he just won the Masters, he hasn’t been lights out when the scoring is relatively low. That said, he’s still eighth and a great bet to contend this week. <\/td><\/tr> 9. Rory McIlroy<\/td> Rory is fading a tad as he rates out 16th in recent course fit but 10th long term. He’s third in both form and strokes gained on difficult courses<\/td><\/tr> 10. Rickie Fowler<\/td> Fowler is really playing well. Though I don’t think he can win this event, he is a solid putter, has been great in avoiding bogeys and approach.<\/td><\/tr> 11. Justin Rose<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 12. Shane Lowry<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 13. Hideki Matsuyama<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 14. Joaquin Niemann<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 15. Tommy Fleetwood<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 16. Max Homa<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 17. Collin Morikawa<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 18. Si Woo Kim<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 19. Gary Woodland<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 20. Michael Kim<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 21. Denny McCarthy<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 22. Tony Finau<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 23. Eric Cole<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 24. Jordan Spieth<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 25. Adam Schenk<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 26. Sepp Straka<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 27. Corey Conners<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 28. Matthew Fitzpatrick<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 29. Keegan Bradley<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 30. Cameron Smith<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 31. Dustin Johnson<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 32. Adam Scott<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 33. Jason Day<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 34. Adam Hadwin<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 35. Justin Suh<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 36. Dustin Johnson<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 37. Ryan Fox<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 38. Andrew Putname<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 39. Russell Henley<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 40. Austin Eckroat<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 41. Justin Thomas<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 42. Cameron Davis<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 43. Bryson Dechambeau<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 44. Emiliano Grillo<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 45. Nick Taylor<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 46. Tom Kim<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 47. Sungjae Im<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 48. Luke List<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 49. Harris English<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 50. Sam Burns<\/td> <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"