The PGA Tour is back in Texas this week before heading up to Rochester, New York, for next week’s PGA Championship at Oak Hill. A lot of golfers like to play the week before a major, so this is a decent field considering it’s not an elevated event. This is the third year of McKinney, Texas’ TPC Craig Ranch as the host venue for the Byron Nelson. We’ve seen birdie fests in 2021 and 2022, and there’s no reason to not expect a third. TPC Craig Ranch rates out as one of the easiest tracks on the schedule, playing more like your local muni and less like a PGA Championship tune-up. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
The elite tier loses its edge when a course plays as easily as this place projects to play this week, so my outright bets will come from down the board. The TPC Craig Ranch fairways are wide, the green complexes are large, and all Par-5s are reachable in two. Apparently, they didn’t like the 50%+ birdie rate on hole no. 12, so that’s been changed from a 547-yard Par 5 to a 493-yard Par 4 this week. Overall, I’m focusing on approach play and birdie opportunities this week, hoping someone can scorch these bentgrass greens for four straight days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
For more course details, check out Ron’s<\/a> course preview<\/a>. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Here’s an important tidbit about TPC Craig Ranch:<\/p>\n\n\n\n TPC Craig Ranch is a par 71 course that can be stretched out to 7,414 from the championship tees. This is a change from the scorecard of the first two years when it played as a par 72 course. In an attempt to make the course less scoreable, the 12th hole was shortened from 547 yards to 493 yards and will play as a par 4 instead of a par 5. It’s a track where length off the tee certainly helps, as it ranks as the 11th longest course on Tour.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n On approach, 36.4% of shots have come from 200+ yards. That is 10% more than the Tour average from that range. Not only is the Greens in Regulation rate 5% easier than average, but the GIR rate when missing the fairway is one of the highest on Tour at 59%. With the 12th largest greens, proximity to the hole numbers is a little further than normal, but the ease of putting on these greens cancels out that slight difficulty.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n Because it is so easy to gain strokes off the tee, this becomes an ultimate second-shot course. Overall, TPC Craig Ranch was the 3rd easiest course to gain strokes on approach in 2021. In 2021, the top eight players in SG: Approach finished within the top-17 on the leaderboard. And last year, eight of the top 11 in approach finished in the top-17 overall.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n My goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting this week. There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, so I’ll share my opinion on the best way to bet on each golfer in my player pool at this week’s event. When pricing out finishing position bets (T5, T10, T20s, etc.), I’ll often lean towards BetMGM<\/a> even if there’s a better number elsewhere because of MGM’s advantageous dead-heat rules. So know the rules of the books that you’re betting on! <\/p>\n\n\n\n