My approach to golf betting and daily fantasy is deeply rooted in statistical modeling. It\u2019s not the only way to go about handicapping a golf tournament, but I think it\u2019s the best way. It helps me eliminate biases and identify golfers purely based on whether they are in good form and if their game syncs up with the course they are about to play.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In this article, I will put together a weighted statistical model specific to the course and tournament. The statistics are chosen and weighted based on historical data from previous tournaments. In addition to course specific data, I will also look at recent form and any other potential relevant angle. The model accounts for the last 50 measured rounds, with the more recent rounds receiving increasingly more weight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The statistical model will always include the main four strokes gained statistics of off-the-tee, approach, around the green, and putting. It\u2019s safe to assume, even if those stats aren\u2019t elaborated on in this section that they are baked into each player\u2019s ranking when all is said and done. The model will also include secondary stats that are specific to success on the current week\u2019s course. Because these secondary stats change week-to-week, they will make up the bulk of those delved into in this article. This will include stats such as driving distance, driving accuracy, good drives, proximity from a certain yardage, eagle rate, birdie rate, putting on a particular grass type, and specific course types like \u201cshort par 70s\u201d or \u201cdifficult courses over 7400 yards\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
SG: Approach<\/strong> \u2014 Approach shots are the bread and butter of every statistical model. No matter the course, the second shot will almost always be the most important. Given the heavy bunkering around the green, sticking your approach will avoid having to get up and down from the sand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Opportunities Gained<\/strong> \u2014 This stat measures birdie opportunities within 15 feet from the hole plus any greens hit in under regulation (on the green with an eagle putt or better). The greens at Vidanta are large, so greens-in-regulation will not all be equal. A dart to inside 15-feet is what you\u2019ll need to win a tournament that looks like it is setting up to have a fairly low score.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Proximity from 200+<\/strong> — There are some longer Par 3s and Par 5s on this course which resulted in over 40% of the approach shots coming from this distance. Albeit it there is limited data for this course, that’s a hard stat to neglect.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Par 5 Scoring \u2014<\/strong> Vidanta has several long Par 5s. When you look at Par 5 scoring, it\u2019s not always players who are long off the tee who hit the ball a mile. There are some shorter hitters who are deadly from within 100 yards that can give themselves short birdie opps as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Sand Saves \u2014<\/strong> There are an eye-popping 100+ bunkers strune about at Vidanta. The optimal strategy would be to avoid them, but I\u2019m sprinkling a little sand save percentage because it\u2019s inevitable that the top finishers will need to get up and down a few times.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Recent Form<\/strong> \u2014 Professional golfers can play well at any given tournament, however when it\u2019s always important to give an added boost to guys who are in a groove with their swing and have been playing well leading up to a tournament.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Driving Distance<\/strong> \u2014 Given the wide fairways, I\u2019m looking mostly at driving distance this week. Guys that can really push the ball down the fairway will have the advantage on the longer Par 4s and 5s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n SG: Putting (Not Fast)<\/strong> \u2014 Most of the Paspalum courses don\u2019t have strokes gained data, so we don\u2019t know who has excelled on that surface, but what we do know is that they normally run slower. The grass-type is known to take a lot of cutting to maintain it\u2019s speed. Over the course of the day during this tournament we can safely say that the greens will be running slow. For this stat I looked at players who putted well on slower surfaces. Because this is a bit speculative, it\u2019s not factored heavily into the model.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Peaking and Fading<\/strong> \u2013 One of the flaws that I often come across in modeling is focusing on a fixed range of time or rounds and taking a wider view to determining if a player is peaking or fading leading up to an event. For instance, a player\u2019s high rating in a model that only focuses on the last 50 rounds could be a result of playing well four months ago. In this section, I will lay out the players who have improved or faded statistically over the course of their last 50 rounds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Peaking<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Fading<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Pat James ranks the top 50 golfers at the Mexico Open using a key stat model<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":23,"featured_media":7519,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":""},"bs_types":[14,15],"bs_tags":[29,73,111],"class_list":["post-7520","article","type-article","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","bs_type-betting","bs_type-fantasy","bs_tag-golf-betting","bs_tag-golf-dfs","bs_tag-mexico-open"],"acf":false,"featured_image":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/GettyImages-1394219031.jpg","tags_list":[{"id":29,"name":"Golf Betting","slug":"golf-betting"},{"id":73,"name":"Golf DFS","slug":"golf-dfs"},{"id":111,"name":"Mexico Open","slug":"mexico-open"}],"types_list":[{"id":14,"name":"Betting"},{"id":15,"name":"Fantasy"}],"bs_author":{"name":"Pat James","profile_image":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/GWeejIKx_400x400-150x150.jpg"},"bs_term_name":null,"is_paid":"true","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/article\/7520","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/article"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/article"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/23"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/7519"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7520"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"bs_type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/bs_types?post=7520"},{"taxonomy":"bs_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/bs_tags?post=7520"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}\n
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Statistical Model Top 50 Rankings<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
1. Jon Rahm<\/td> Tough to pick against Rahm in this field. He rates out well above even Finau in second place by ranking first in five stat categories: Approach, Recent Form, 200+ proximity, Par 5 Scoring, and Opportunities Gained<\/td><\/tr> 2. Tony Finau<\/td> Finau is a distant second ranking inside the top five in approach, recent form, and Par 5 Scoring. He’s also tenth in opportunities gained.<\/td><\/tr> 3. Nicolai Hojgaard<\/td> Hojgaard has limited rounds, but had nice showings at Punta Cana and the Valero. This course is similar to Corales in that it’s a resort course, which are usually a tad on the easier side. He rates out well in approach, 200+ proximity, Par 5 Scoring, and recent form<\/td><\/tr> 4. Wyndham Clark<\/td> I love Clark this week. He is eighth or better in approach, Par 5 scoring, opportunities gained, and form. The only red flag would be his low rating in 200+ approach shots which is nearly half the shots at this course.<\/td><\/tr> 5. Eric Cole<\/td> Cole ranks 20th or better in approach, 200+ proximity, form, sand saves, and opportunities gained.<\/td><\/tr> 6. Kevin Roy<\/td> A potential sleeper at a bargain price in DFS and on Sportsbooks, Roy fits the key stats pretty well despite not being in the best of form. His second shot stats are really second to only Rahm and maybe Finau. He rates out 5th or better in approach, 200+ proximity, and opportunities gained<\/td><\/tr> 7. Gary Woodland<\/td> Woodland only lacks in the sand save department, but if he can hit greens it may not be a necessary skill. He rates out fifth or better in approach, driving distance, and 200+ proximity<\/td><\/tr> 8. Patrick Rodgers<\/td> Rodgers rates out 11th or better in driving distance, sand saves, Par 5 scoring, and recent form.<\/td><\/tr> 9. Nate Lashley<\/td> Lashley is a dog from the key 200+ proximity, rating out 8th. He’s also 7th in Par 5 scoring and top 25 in approach and recent form.<\/td><\/tr> 10. Robby Shelton<\/td> Shelton lands at 6th in 200+ proximity while ranking 6th in approach, and 10th in sand saves<\/td><\/tr> 11. Augusto Nunez<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 12. Michael Kim<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 13. Lanto Griffin<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 14. Matt Wallace<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 15. Akshay Bhatia<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 16. Ben Martin<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 17. MJ Daffue<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 18. Joseph Bramlett<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 19. Dylan Wu<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 20. Satoshi Kodaira<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 21. Chris Stround<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 22. Ben An<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 23. Chex Reavie<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 24. Brent Grant<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 25. Charley Hoffman<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 26. Erik Van Rooyen<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 27. Brandon Wu<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 28. Garrick Higgo<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 29. Vincent Norman<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 30. Matthias Schmid<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 31. Patton Kizzire<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 32. Aaron Rai<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 33. Scott Piercey<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 34. Ryan Gerard<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 35. Stephan Jaeger<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 36. Kyle Westmoreland<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 37. Kevin Streelman<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 38. Beau Hossler<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 39. Jimmy Walker<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 40. Richy Werenski<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 41. Will Gordon<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 42. Lee Hodges<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 43. Kevin Chappell<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 44. Wesley Bryan<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 45. Luke List<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 46. Tano Goya<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 47. Ricky Barnes<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 48. Kevin Tway<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 49. Andrew Putnam<\/td> <\/td><\/tr> 50. Austin Cook<\/td> <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"