My approach to golf betting and daily fantasy is deeply rooted in statistical modeling. It\u2019s not the only way to go about handicapping a golf tournament, but I think it\u2019s the best way. It helps me eliminate biases and identify golfers purely based on whether they are in good form and if their game syncs up with the course they are about to play.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In this article, I will put together a weighted statistical model specific to the course and tournament. The statistics are chosen and weighted based on historical data from previous tournaments. In addition to course-specific data, I will also look at recent form and any other potentially relevant angle. The model accounts for the last 50 measured rounds, with the more recent rounds receiving increasingly more weight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The statistical model will always include the main four strokes gained statistics of off-the-tee, approach, around the green, and putting. It\u2019s safe to assume, even if those stats aren\u2019t elaborated on in this section that they are baked into each player\u2019s ranking when all is said and done. The model will also include secondary stats that are specific to success on the current week\u2019s course. Because these secondary stats change week-to-week, they will make up the bulk of those delved into in this article. This will include stats such as driving distance, driving accuracy, good drives, proximity from a certain yardage, eagle rate, birdie rate, putting on a particular grass type, and specific course types like \u201cshort par 70s\u201d or \u201cdifficult courses over 7400 yards\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The gold standard of statistical modeling, it\u2019s crucial to gain strokes on your second shot at every course on the PGA Tour.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Greens in regulation gained at TPC Louisiana is a big advantage. Winners have gained double the amount of greens in reg on the field compared to those finishing top 20. In this tournament and format you want guys throwing darts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n With four Par 5s and four long par 3s over 200 yards, being able to stick approaches from deep is going to be a key skill this week. <\/p>\n\n\n\n There are a bunch of short par fours and potential layups on the Par 5s which leaves the distribution of approach shots either being short wedges or extremely long approaches.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Hitting fairways isn’t difficult and several wholes just don’t allow you to bomb it, so we want to just look at overall good drives. Who places the ball where they need to in order to earn a green in reg regardless of the length or accuracy required.<\/p>\n\n\n\n All four Par 3s fall between 200 and 225 yards. There is a unique subset of golfers who routinely pop at tournaments when this stat is a correlation to the leaderboard.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Three putts haven’t been extremely debilitating, but the winners of this tournament have really outperformed the rest of the field in at the very least getting down in two.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The golfers playing the best at the moment. Though golf is filled with variance and the previous weeks winner is more likely to miss the cut than win again, being in the groove with your swing is a real thing in golf.<\/p>\n\n\n\n One of the flaws that I often come across in modeling is focusing on a fixed range of time or rounds and taking a wider view to determining if a player is peaking or fading leading up to an event. For instance, a player\u2019s high rating in a model that only focuses on the last 50 rounds could be a result of playing well four months ago. In this section, I will lay out the players who have improved or faded statistically over the course of their last 50 rounds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The top teams for the Zurich Classic ranked based on course fit and current form.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":23,"featured_media":7394,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":""},"bs_types":[14,15],"bs_tags":[29,73],"class_list":["post-7442","article","type-article","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","bs_type-betting","bs_type-fantasy","bs_tag-golf-betting","bs_tag-golf-dfs"],"acf":false,"featured_image":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/GettyImages-1481036578.jpg","tags_list":[{"id":29,"name":"Golf Betting","slug":"golf-betting"},{"id":73,"name":"Golf DFS","slug":"golf-dfs"}],"types_list":[{"id":14,"name":"Betting"},{"id":15,"name":"Fantasy"}],"bs_author":{"name":"Pat James","profile_image":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/GWeejIKx_400x400-150x150.jpg"},"bs_term_name":null,"is_paid":"true","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/article\/7442","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/article"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/article"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/23"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/7394"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7442"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"bs_type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/bs_types?post=7442"},{"taxonomy":"bs_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/bs_tags?post=7442"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}1. Xander Schaufelle<\/td><\/tr> 2. Collin Morikawa<\/td><\/tr> 3. Wyndham Clark<\/td><\/tr> 4. Max Homa<\/td><\/tr> 5. Tom Hoge<\/td><\/tr> 6. Patrick Cantlay<\/td><\/tr> 7. Kevin Roy<\/td><\/tr> 8. Aaron Rai<\/td><\/tr> 9. Robbie Shelton<\/td><\/tr> 10. Davis Riley<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n GIRs Gained<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
1. Xander Schauffele<\/td><\/tr> 2. Patrick Cantlay<\/td><\/tr> 3. Joseph Bramlett<\/td><\/tr> 4. Collin Morikawa<\/td><\/tr> 5. Will Gordon<\/td><\/tr> 6. Luke List<\/td><\/tr> 7. Tyler Duncan<\/td><\/tr> 8. Aaron Rai<\/td><\/tr> 9. Hayden Buckley<\/td><\/tr> 10. Akshay Bhatia<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n 200+ Proximity<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
1. Patrick Cantlay<\/td><\/tr> 2. Tom Hoge<\/td><\/tr> 3. Michael Thompson<\/td><\/tr> 4. Kurt Kitayama<\/td><\/tr> 5. Robbie Shelton<\/td><\/tr> 6. Kevin Roy<\/td><\/tr> 7. Matthias Schmid<\/td><\/tr> 8. Brent Grant<\/td><\/tr> 9. Dylan Wu<\/td><\/tr> 10. Ben Taylor<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n Wedge Guys<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
1. Russell Knox<\/td><\/tr> 2. Austin Cook<\/td><\/tr> 3. David Lipsky<\/td><\/tr> 4. Joseph Bramlett<\/td><\/tr> 5. Wyndham Clark<\/td><\/tr> 6. Ryan Armour<\/td><\/tr> 7. Tom Hoge<\/td><\/tr> 8. Davis Riley<\/td><\/tr> 9. Chesson Hadley<\/td><\/tr> 10. Steve Stricker<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n Good Drives Gained<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
1. Hayden Buckley<\/td><\/tr> 2. Collin Morikawa<\/td><\/tr> 3. Ben Martin<\/td><\/tr> 4. Patrick Cantlay<\/td><\/tr> 5. Tom Kim<\/td><\/tr> 6. Tyler Duncan<\/td><\/tr> 7. Sungjae Im<\/td><\/tr> 8. Cam Young<\/td><\/tr> 9. David Lingmerth<\/td><\/tr> 10. Adam Hadwin<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n Long Par 3s<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
1. Tom Kim<\/td><\/tr> 2. Sahith Theegala<\/td><\/tr> 3. Luke Donald<\/td><\/tr> 4. Brandon Wu<\/td><\/tr> 5. Si Woo Kim<\/td><\/tr> 6. Doc Redman<\/td><\/tr> 7. Sam Ryder<\/td><\/tr> 8. Steve Stricker<\/td><\/tr> 9. Justin Suh<\/td><\/tr> 10. Tom Hoge<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n Three Putt Avoidance<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
1. Sam Ryder<\/td><\/tr> 2. Eric Cole<\/td><\/tr> 3. Thomas Detry<\/td><\/tr> 4. Mark Hubbard<\/td><\/tr> 5. Nick Watney<\/td><\/tr> 6. Harry Higgs<\/td><\/tr> 7. Sung Kang<\/td><\/tr> 8. Robbie Shelton<\/td><\/tr> 9. Aaron Baddeley<\/td><\/tr> 10. Keith Mitchell<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n Current Form<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
1. Patrick Cantlay<\/td><\/tr> 2. Max Homa<\/td><\/tr> 3. Collin Morikawa<\/td><\/tr> 4. Sam Stevens<\/td><\/tr> 5. Wyndham Clark<\/td><\/tr> 6. Ben Martin<\/td><\/tr> 7. Xander Schauffele<\/td><\/tr> 8. Justin Suh<\/td><\/tr> 9. Sahith Theegala<\/td><\/tr> 10. Sungjae Im<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n Peaking and Fading<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Peaking<\/strong><\/td><\/tr> 1. Patrick Cantlay<\/td><\/tr> 2. Tom Kim<\/td><\/tr> 3. Justin Suh<\/td><\/tr> 4. Sungjae Im<\/td><\/tr> 5. Sam Ryder<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n Fading<\/strong><\/td><\/tr> 1. Denny McCarthy<\/td><\/tr> 2. David Lingmerth<\/td><\/tr> 3. Kurt Kitayama<\/td><\/tr> 4. Brandon Wu<\/td><\/tr> 5. Luke Donald<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n Statistical Model Top 10 Zurich Pairings<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
1. Collin Morikawa\/Max Homa<\/td> Morikawa and Homa both rate out really well from the long iron ranges which puts them in good shape on the Par 5s and long Par 3s. They’re both top four in approach and Morikawa rates out 4th in GIRs gained as well. This team and the Cantlay\/Schauffele team are the far and away favorites<\/td><\/tr> 2. Xander Schauffele\/Patrick Cantlay<\/td> Schauffele rates out top 12 in approach, GIRs gained, and good drives. Cantlay is inside the top 12 in approach, 200+ proximity, GIRs gained, and good drives. They’re both in excellent form and are familiar with each other in this format<\/td><\/tr> 3. Tom Kim\/Si Woo Kim<\/td> Tom Kim is 12th in GIRs gained, fifth in good drives, second in the Par 3 distance, and 15th from the wedge range<\/td><\/tr> 4. Sahith Theegala\/Justin Suh<\/td> Justin Suh rates out well with his wedges, from the Par 3 yardage, and avoiding three-putts. Theegala is in great form and also rates out well from the Par 3 yardages. <\/td><\/tr> 5. Ben Martin\/Chesson Hadley<\/td> Ben Martin is very good with his wedges, is third in good drives, and also rates out 12th in approach and 23rd in GIRs gained.<\/td><\/tr> 6. Tyler Duncan\/Hank Lebioda<\/td> This one was a bit of a surprise, but Duncan has been a ball striking machine and rates out seventh in GIRs gained and sixth in good drives. Hank is a solid wedge player and also rates out well in GIRs at 13th.<\/td><\/tr> 7. Jospeh Bramlett\/Brandon Wu<\/td> Bramlett rates out top 25 in approach, and also is top ten in wedge play and GIRs gained. Brandon complements him well with his top ratings in putting and long irons<\/td><\/tr> 8. Sungjae Im\/Keith Mitchell<\/td> Sungjae is in good form, is top 16 in good drives, GIRs, and is top 30 in approach. Keith Mitchell can bring the putter to this tandem despite not being in the best of form.<\/td><\/tr> 9. Tom Hoge\/Harris English<\/td> Hoge is always going to pop when wedges are important. He’s also top 20 in approach, 200+ approaches, and the Par 3 yardage. English doesn’t rate out extremely well, but is in decent form coming off a 2nd at the API and a made cut in Augusta<\/td><\/tr> 10. Aaron Rai\/David Lipsky<\/td> Aaron Rai is coming off a solid performance at the Heritage as well as making four straight cuts. He rates out top 20 in approach, GIRs gained, good drives, and the par 3 yardarge<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"