The Florida swing continues at Bay Hill for the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational. Bay Hill offers a stern test of golf, and historically, the winner comes from near the top of the betting board. However, as we’ve seen a few times already this season, the top of the betting board for these ‘designated events’ resembles major championship golf and should likely be treated as such.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite being a healthy 7,454 yards, Bay Hill plays even longer than the scorecard would indicate. Despite that, distance advantages off the tee are mitigated because of the multitude of forced layups and doglegs throughout. Forced layups off the tee create a ton of long approach shots, and this week’s field will face a higher rate of 200+ yard approach shots than any other week this season. In 2022, just 29.1% of approach shots at Bay Hill were from 150 yards or closer, significantly lower than an average Tour event. Bay Hill’s lightning-fast, rock-solid Bermuda greens complexes feature run-offs that make the green difficult to hold, creating a lower-than-average greens in regulation rate every year. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Bay Hill typically features some of the longest rough on Tour each season, and the fairways can also play fast. Don’t be surprised to see excellent tee shots roll into the rough or even worse, the water. The 2015 redesign brings water into play on 11 of the 18 holes. And then there’s the wind. It’s always a story at Bay Hill, and the early weather report shows moderate wind throughout and strong gusts on Friday as of this writing, but be sure to check back on Wednesday for an updated report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
For more course details, check out Ron’s<\/a> course preview<\/a>. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Here’s an important tidbit about Bay Hill:<\/p>\n\n\n\n While distance off the tee has shown to be advantageous to success at Bay Hill, the actual driving distance is 16% lower than the average Tour course at an average of only 282.5 yards. As previously mentioned, one reason for this is the firmness of the Bermuda fairways combined with the thick overseeded rye rough, which stops any wayward drives right in its track. With the rough and water hazards in mind, many golfers also choose to club down to keep the ball in the fairway.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n With many golfers playing conservatively off the tee, combined with the long par 3s, four par 5s, and so many shots from the thick rough, the average approach shot distance is one of the highest on Tour at 184 yards. In fact, over 36% of approach shots come from over 200 yards. This is the most on Tour. 10 of the last 11 winners in this event ranked in the top 55 on Tour for proximity to the hole from 200+ yards in the year leading up to their victory. Strong long-iron players should be targeted along with those who have a higher ball flight for softer landings on the firm greens. Very few short irons and wedges will be hit this week.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n My goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting this week. There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, so I’ll share my opinion on the best way to bet on each golfer in my player pool at this week’s event. When pricing out finishing position bets (T5, T10, T20s, etc.), I’ll often lean towards BetMGM<\/a> even if there’s a better number elsewhere because of MGM’s advantageous dead-heat rules. So know the rules of the books that you’re betting on! <\/p>\n\n\n\n