The Waste Management Open has changed drastically over the years and now fits perfectly as the best Super Bowl pregame show on Sunday afternoon. With over 700,000 in attendance, its equal parts tailgate party, Mardi Gras vibes, and golf all rolled into one four-day weekend in the Arizona desert. There truly is nothing else like it on Tour. The Par-3 16th gets all the attention, but the 17th hole, a driveable Par-4 with water very much in play, is one of the most exciting holes on Tour.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
TPC Scottsdale is a pretty straightforward track, but the event has grown in gravitas each year. Thanks to its new ‘elevated’ status, this year’s field is the best yet. Outside of the obvious LIV Golf names and Will Zalatoris, 22 of the top 25 players in the Official World Golf Ranking (and 37 of the top 50) will tee it up this week. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
The final few holes at TPC Scottsdale make for an intriguing finish to each round, with risk-reward choices all over the back nine. This is a 7,266 yards par-71 track, a ball-strikers paradise at altitude with fast Bermuda greens, over-seeded with a hybrid grass blend. A quick look at the most recent winners of this event shows a shift from a wide-open event to a place where the top of the board thrives. According to Data Golf, course history at TPC Scottsdale is the third-most predictive of any course on Tour, behind only Augusta National and Waialae CC, so previous success here should be considered, and at least, should be used as a tie-breaker if you’re considering two golfers close in price or in a matchup.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Handicapping early-season events when we have less relevant form data than we do in the spring and summer is a bit more of a feel thing than I’d like it to be. I’d prefer to lean on as much data as possible, but we’re all in the same boat, so let’s work with what we have. For more course details, check out Ron’s<\/a> course preview<\/a>. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Here’s an important tidbit about TPC Scottsdale:<\/p>\n\n\n\n The course features 10 par-4s between 400-500 yards. All three par 5s stand between 550-600 yards and are reachable in two shots for most of the field. They are three of the most scoreable par 5s on Tour, as each has a birdie or better rate of over 41%. In order to move up the leaderboard, players will need to birdie and eagle those holes.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n Along with Total Driving, ball-striking is the name of the game here in Scottsdale. With firm greens in play this week leading to a 16% further proximity to the hole average, the ability to hit approach shots close for birdie looks is vital. Because of this, a high ball flight is much preferred, which adds to the importance of distance of the tee because it means having shorter lofted irons into greens on approach shots.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n My goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting this week. There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, so I’ll share my opinion on the best way to bet on each golfer in my player pool at this week’s event. When pricing out finishing position bets (T5, T10, T20s, etc.), I’ll often lean towards BetMGM<\/a> even if there’s a better number elsewhere because of MGM’s advantageous dead-heat rules. So know the rules of the books that you’re betting on! <\/p>\n\n\n\n