{"id":5889,"date":"2023-01-24T18:46:27","date_gmt":"2023-01-24T18:46:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/?post_type=article&p=5889"},"modified":"2023-01-24T18:57:04","modified_gmt":"2023-01-24T18:57:04","slug":"2023-farmers-insurance-open-betting-card-picks-and-preview","status":"publish","type":"article","link":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/article\/2023-farmers-insurance-open-betting-card-picks-and-preview\/","title":{"rendered":"2023 Farmers Insurance Open Betting Card Picks and Preview"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

We’re a few events into the season, but things begin to heat up this week for the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines. We’ll start seeing the world’s best golfers week-in and week-out moving forward, and nine of the world’s top 21 and 21 of the top 75 have made the trip to La Jolla, California, this week. The schedule is a bit wonky this week, with the Tour wisely moving the event into the Wednesday-Saturday window instead of competing with the NFL during Conference Championship Sunday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week, the field will split the first two days between the North and South courses, with the final two rounds of golf being played on one of the Tour’s toughest tracks, the aforementioned South Course. After keeping some of the tee boxes and adjustments from the 2021 U.S. Open, it’s now the longest track on the Tour, featuring thick, penial rough, narrow fairways and small Poa Annua greens, which are notoriously difficult to putt on. Other than that, how was the play, Mrs. Lincoln? Course history matters here as well, as 16 of the last 18 winners of the Farmers Insurance Open have had a top-10 at this event prior to their win. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

For more course details, check out Ron’s<\/a> course preview<\/a>. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Here’s an important tidbit about the unique setup this week:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Enormous length, narrow fairways, deep rough, criminally-tough greens on which to putt. These are just a few of the ways to describe the South Course. While mostly flat, at 7,765 yards, Torrey Pines is a monster and the longest on Tour. Winds off the coast can also severely hamper a round.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Over the past five years, it’s also played as the ninth-toughest course at 0.55 strokes over par. Almost every metric is tougher here. From scrambling to fairways hit to GIR % \u2013 all are significantly lower here than the average PGA Tour course.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since most players will be in the rough plenty of times this week, it only makes sense that those who drive the ball farthest will have shorter iron shots and a better chance of holding the green. It is much easier for a “bomber” to hit a higher-lofted iron out of deep rough. Four of the past 11 winners ranked first or second for the week in Driving Distance. Furthermore, with only 1.6% of tee shots going out of bounds and zero water hazards, the bigger hitters have complete freedom to bomb away.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

My goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting this week. There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, so I’ll share my opinion on the best way to bet on each golfer in my player pool at this week’s event. When pricing out finishing position bets (T5, T10, T20s, etc.), I’ll often lean towards BetMGM<\/a> even if there’s a better number elsewhere because of MGM’s advantageous dead-heat rules. So know the rules of the books that you’re betting on! <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Please take advantage of the Discord<\/a> feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets from myself or other contributors. Betting markets are fluid, but I’ll note the best number available at the time of this writing. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

There’s an interesting live betting opportunity this week due to the split course start on Wednesday and Thursday. If someone that you were considering pre-tourney gets off to a slow start on Wednesday after playing on the South Course, they might be worth a look at a depressed number before their round at the much easier North Course. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even though this isn’t an absolutely loaded field, it does still include a handful of upper-echelon golfers who all profile really well for this layout. I’m avoiding outright ‘bombs’ and will add a few golfers with longer odds to my final card for finishing position bets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

*Betting lines are accurate at the time of publication.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Noonan’s Farmers Insurance Open Betting Targets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Will Zalatoris<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

I’m happy with this price, considering I was betting on Willy Z regardless of the number this week. Zalatoris was the 54-hole leader last season, on the back of his seventh-place finish here in his debut, and missed a short putt on 18 and eventually lost in a playoff to Luke List. Zalatoris eventually got his first win on Tour at TPC Southwind at last season’s St. Jude, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a Scheffler-like windfall for Zalatoris in 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

His best golf is played on the world’s toughest tracks, including six T8 or better finishes in his first seven Major starts. Torrey Pines is a recent Major venue as the host of the 2021 U.S. Open, and I think a top-tier contender is taking home the hardware this week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Zalatoris is the best long-iron player in the world, which is the singular metric I prioritize above the rest this week. He’s elite off the tee, takes advantage of Par-5s, and can scramble if need be. I’ve been encouraged by his start to the season, and I believe the late-season back injury issues are….behind him.<\/p>\n\n\n\n