The PGA Tour heads east from Hawaii to the Coachella Valley desert in La Quinta, California, for The American Express at PGA West. This event changes its name like I change my underwear, so if you’re looking at past events, this could be titled anything from the Desert Classic, CareerBuilder Challenge, or the Bob Hope Classic. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
The American Express is a unique event to handicap. This is a three-course rotation that includes a Pro-Am element, where each pro tees off with an amateur for the first three rounds of the tournament. It also features a 54-hole cut on Saturday night after each golfer has played a round on the events’ three courses. Once everyone’s made their way around the Nicklaus Tournament Course, La Quinta Country Club, and The Stadium Course, the cut-makers will head back out to play The Stadium Course once again for the final round. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Stadium Course is a Pete Dye design, which is a fine place to start if you’re looking for corollary courses this week, and it’s the only place with Shotlink data for this event. That means we’re flying blind with strokes-gained data for all rounds at Nicklaus and La Quinta. A look at past leaderboards will again show that the winner must go low. The only time this event’s winner failed to break 20-under par was Charley Hoffman back in 2007. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
For more course details, check out Ron’s<\/a> course preview<\/a>. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Here’s an important tidbit about the unique setup this week and the commonalities between the three courses:<\/p>\n\n\n\n All of the courses being utilized do share some of the same characteristics. Each has four scoreable par-5s and is under 7,200 yards. Each has poa trivialis greens and ryegrass fairways surrounded by non-penal dormant Bermuda rough. Each is also amongst the easiest annual courses in the PGA Tour rotation.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n The Stadium Course is the toughest of the three and will be used for two of the four rounds. It is a Pete Dye design featuring smaller greens, plenty of bunkers, and seven holes with water danger to contend with. Another reason the winning score usually ends up in the 25-under range is that all three are resort-style courses with pin placements made intentionally easy for the amateurs that are playing. It is a tournament where all different styles of players can thrive, and those with the hottest flat stick in the inevitable putting contest are usually rewarded.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n My goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting this week. There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, so I’ll share my opinion on the best way to bet on each golfer in my player pool at this week’s event. When pricing out finishing position bets (T5, T10, T20s, etc.), I’ll often lean towards BetMGM<\/a> even if there’s a better number elsewhere because of MGM’s advantageous dead-heat rules. So know the rules of the books that you’re betting on! <\/p>\n\n\n\n Please take advantage of the Discord<\/a> feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets from myself or other contributors. Betting markets are fluid, but I’ll note the best number available at the time of this writing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n *Betting lines are accurate at the time of publication.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n I find myself considering course history more at the start of the season than I do later in the year, and that’s for a few reasons. First, we don’t have the recent form to lean on since most golfers have played sporadic schedules over the past three months. Second, because of the uniqueness of the first few events. We’ve seen that play out in Hawaii over the years, and while these course setups are ripe for any golfer at any time, the Pro-Am element and the slow rounds that come from it make this unique as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Cam Davis is likely to be featured here often this season. I like his game, and he’s shown an ability to compete on a variety of layouts so far in his career. Despite his distance advantage off the tee, he’s performed best at shorter to medium-length courses, including three solid finishes at this event, topped off with a solo third in 2021. He’s also performed well when the conditions are easy and the scoring is low, including his last win at the 2021 Rocket Mortgage. He’s shown that he can navigate a Pete Dye track as well, nearly winning at Harbour Town back in April.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Over the past 36 rounds, Davis ranks inside the top 10 in this field in Par-5 scoring, birdie opportunities, and SG: T2G, all of which I’m weighing heavily this week. Absolutely love this price and would back him up to 50\/1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Tom Hoge’s T41 at last week’s Sony Open was uninspiring at first glance, but he ranked ninth in SG: APP on the week and was done in by some poor chipping performances on Saturday and Sunday. The rough is non-existent this weekend, so I’m going to focus on what matters at this event, and that’s getting as many birdie looks as possible. Over the past 36 and 50 rounds, Tom Hoge is second in SG: APP and first in birdie opportunities gained. He’s flashed a ceiling here before, including finishing runner-up last season and sixth back in 2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Clearly, Hoge was rattled after his TCU Horned Frogs were undressed on the big stage on Monday night, and he’ll be back in top form this week. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Winning golf tournaments is difficult, but if you continue to put yourself in contention on the weekend, you will eventually close one. This is the lullaby that Tony Finau and Will Zalatoris sang to themselves before falling asleep early last season, and now it’s Taylor Montgomery’s turn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Taylor Montgomery has shown an incredible ceiling between the Korn Ferry Tour and his early PGA Tour stops. Montgomery has made the cut in 20 of his past 24 starts between the two tours, and he’s finished T15 or better 19 times. That’s an incredible rate. 79%, to be exact.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Montgomery doesn’t possess the type of skill set I typically lean on because his approach game is lagging behind right now. But he’s outstanding off the tee, and you can make the case that he’s the best putter on Tour right now. He’s tops in this field over the past 12 months, gaining 1.21 strokes on the field per round. The difference between Montgomery and Harry Hall, who’s second in SG: P, is the same (0.31 strokes per round) between Hall and Jon Rahm, who ranks 10th. Yes, putting is noisier than the other strokes-gained stats, but there are always statistical outliers, and Montgomery qualifies. At an event that’s been famously called “Putting Contest Week<\/a>,” I’ll take the best putter in the field.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Andrew Putnam is playing the best golf of his career right now. He’s made 13 consecutive cuts and has three T5 or better finishes in that span, including last week’s T4 at Sony. Similar to Taylor Montgomery, Putnam relies on an above-average putter, but his approach metrics have been solid during this cut streak that dates back to late July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n His lack of distance isn’t an issue at this event because all three courses play short, and the Par-5s are reachable for the entire field. He’s played well here recently, finishing T21 or better in four of his past five trips to La Quinta, California, and he’s bringing the best form of his career along with him.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Something wasn’t right during my first run-through of data for the week. So I double-checked and did it again. Hmm. Same thing. I thought, well, I better change the sample size of 36 rounds back to 50 rounds and see if that makes more sense. Hmm. Nope. Same issue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n My top 10 for the week look normal for the most part. Tony Finau, Xander Schauffele, Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm, Tom Kim, Will Zalatoris, Ben Griffin, Patrick Cantlay, Sungjae Im…<\/p>\n\n\n\n Wait, Ben Griffin? <\/p>\n\n\n\n Ok, let’s roll. Griffin is coming off of a T12 at the Sony Open and has had a terrific swing season, highlighted by a T3 at the Bermuda Championship back in early November. The 26-year-old has shown a huge ceiling on the Korn Ferry Tour, with 10 T20 finishes in 24 starts last season, and he flashed at the Wyndham late last year, finishing alone in fourth place. <\/p>\n\n\n\n He has plus distance off the tee but has the propensity to spray it a bit, but that can play here if he avoids the water. He’s feasted on short Par-4s, which is what makes up the plurality of holes at these three courses, and his approach game is strong, ranking 13th in SG: APP over his past 36 rounds. If you don’t want to chase an outright north of 100\/1, I get it, but three of the past four winners here closed at 150\/1 or higher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This is a relatively new entry to the space, thanks to our friends at FanDuel<\/a>. I played a number of these last season with a 9.85% ROI, so I’ll continue it this season. If it’s not for you, feel free to skip it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Unlike most other books I’m familiar with, FanDuel allows you to parlay finishing position bets. Now, the very premise of the bet is flawed because the expected value is negative since players are competing for the same finishing positions. If the bet is two T40s like this one, when one leg of your parlay finishes above the threshold, there’s now one less spot available in that range for the other leg(s) to also come in. I know the math is terrible. Spare me. But let’s be honest. Some bets are just fun, and these are fun for me.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This is a great bounce-back spot for Tom Kim, who was still electric with his irons at Sony but couldn’t make a putt. He makes for a great pairing with his countryman and Sony Open winner Si Woo Kim, who’s shown an affinity for this event over the years, including a win back in 2021. Everyone seems leary of the previous week’s winner for some reason, but what form is better than coming off a win?<\/p>\n\n\n\n For the most up-to-date picks, check out my <\/em>Twitter<\/em><\/a> and subscribe to our <\/em>Discord<\/em><\/a> at BetspertsGolf.com.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n This article is intended for entertainment purposes and adult users only. Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Ryan Noonan, fresh off a 45\/1 winner with Si Woo Kim, is back with his 2023 American Express Betting Card Picks and Preview.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":5836,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":""},"bs_types":[14],"bs_tags":[29,143],"class_list":["post-5835","article","type-article","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","bs_type-betting","bs_tag-golf-betting","bs_tag-the-american-express"],"acf":false,"featured_image":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/GettyImages-1370410726.jpg","tags_list":[{"id":29,"name":"Golf Betting","slug":"golf-betting"},{"id":143,"name":"The American Express","slug":"the-american-express"}],"types_list":[{"id":14,"name":"Betting"}],"bs_author":{"name":"Ryan Noonan","profile_image":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Ryan-Noonan-150x150.jpg"},"bs_term_name":null,"is_paid":"true","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/article\/5835","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/article"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/article"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5836"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5835"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"bs_type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/bs_types?post=5835"},{"taxonomy":"bs_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/bs_tags?post=5835"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}Noonan’s American Express Betting Targets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Cam Davis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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Tom Hoge<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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Taylor Montgomery<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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Andrew Putnam<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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Ben Griffin<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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FanDuel Finishing Position Parlay<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Tom Kim and Si Woo Kim- T40 (+156)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n